Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Four times a year, the TSE reassesses free float weights for listed stocks. Indices run by the TSE adjust their index shares (shares out x FFW x coefficient) in Jan/Apr/Jul/October.</li>
<li>Yesterday, the TSE announced its changes for this quarter. Combined with other adjustments on 30 July at the close, we expect 190+ events.</li>
<li>For now, we expect the trade is about US$3.3bn a side. At the top of the buy side, 16 names with more than $30mm to buy, averaging 5x ADV.</li>
</ul>


Four times a year, the TSE reassesses free float weights for listed stocks. Indices run by the TSE adjust their index shares (shares out x FFW x coefficient) in Jan/Apr/Jul/October.
Yesterday, the TSE announced its changes for this quarter. Combined with other adjustments on 30 July at the close, we expect 190+ events.
For now, we expect the trade is about US$3.3bn a side. At the top of the buy side, 16 names with more than $30mm to buy, averaging 5x ADV.


[Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance - $3bn+ a Side to Trade

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Article discusses anchoring and insufficient adjustment in behavioral finance using Long Kansai Paint as an example</li><li>Despite profits increasing, stock price remains low leading to valuation at an 8-year low</li><li>Comparisons to global paint industry benchmarks show potential for KP to improve performance and valuation</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Article discusses anchoring and insufficient adjustment in behavioral finance using Long Kansai Paint as an exampleDespite profits increasing, stock price remains low leading to valuation at an 8-year lowComparisons to global paint industry benchmarks show potential for KP to improve performance and valuationThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Kansai Paint (4613) - Friday, Mar 8, 2024

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>24mos ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a> announced a new MTMP, a large buyback, and plans to unwind cross-holdings. Big. 15mos ago a large secondary offering kicked off the festivities.</li>
<li>Key was Toyota sold. Then KP could sell its Toyota shares - two-thirds of its cross-holdings. The offering was one to buy. A buyback followed. KP vs Nippon Paint doubled.</li>
<li>KP offered a CB recently with the delta hedge done by TN-3. Now there is a HUGE new buyback. Really big. This gets rid of more cross-holders. And there's more.</li>
</ul>


24mos ago, Kansai Paint (4613 JP) announced a new MTMP, a large buyback, and plans to unwind cross-holdings. Big. 15mos ago a large secondary offering kicked off the festivities.
Key was Toyota sold. Then KP could sell its Toyota shares - two-thirds of its cross-holdings. The offering was one to buy. A buyback followed. KP vs Nippon Paint doubled.
KP offered a CB recently with the delta hedge done by TN-3. Now there is a HUGE new buyback. Really big. This gets rid of more cross-holders. And there's more.


Kansai Paint (4613) - Going Hard with a BIG Buyback and More Capital Moves Beyond

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.</li>
<li>Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> is in play.</li>
<li>A HUGE new buyback for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a>. Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. </li>
</ul>


Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

<ul>
<li>Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> calls "The Big April Basket." The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.</li>
<li>It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.</li>
<li>Janaghan had 18 "High Conviction" LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.</li>
</ul>


Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA calls "The Big April Basket." The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.
It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.
Janaghan had 18 "High Conviction" LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.


The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

Japan

KANSAI PAINT CO., LTD. manufactures and sells a wide range of paints and the related products.  The Company's products are used for automobiles, construction, and ships.

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Kansai Paint (4613 JP)

[Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance - $3bn+ a Side to Trade

The TOPIX July FFW rebal has been announced. It is largely as the Street expected. There is $3.3bn a side to trade by my calcs. Some of that is...

Travis Lundy

Kansai Paint (4613) - Friday, Mar 8, 2024

The article suggests that KP has the potential to improve its performance and valuation based on historical trends and industry comparisons.

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Kansai Paint (4613) - Going Hard with a BIG Buyback and More Capital Moves Beyond

After this morning's TN-3 buyback (promised in May), KP shares are about 13x Mar25 EPS (as of yesterday's close). At that price, the remaining...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows: ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

The TOPIX Big April Basket is ¥200bn a side of flows - FFW changes, PWR cascading deletions, PWR unwinds, share count changes, Liquidity Factor...

Travis Lundy

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