Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I continues to seek shareholder approval for its own path, offering not just improved efficiency but a massive ¥2 trillion buyback albeit one over a long time frame.</li>
<li>This is a lot, especially when the core Seven Eleven chain in Japan is still struggling to keep up with its peers on monthly growth rates.</li>
<li>But this forgets retail media which is set to become a major new income stream for CVS and, judging by forecasts, would help pay for a chunk of that buyback.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I continues to seek shareholder approval for its own path, offering not just improved efficiency but a massive ¥2 trillion buyback albeit one over a long time frame.
This is a lot, especially when the core Seven Eleven chain in Japan is still struggling to keep up with its peers on monthly growth rates.
But this forgets retail media which is set to become a major new income stream for CVS and, judging by forecasts, would help pay for a chunk of that buyback.


Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-x-nikkei-225-covered-call-etf-option-premium-reinvestment-type" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44483:1" rel="noopener">Global X Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF (2858 JP)</a> has outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> year-to-date with a 4.5% advantage, demonstrating strength in sideways and moderately declining markets.</li>
<li>The covered call strategy can be deployed as a tactical standalone in sideways markets or as a relative value approach against a Nikkei 225 short.</li>
<li>For investors anticipating a continuation of the sideways or declining market, the option roll-over on the open of <strong>March 14 </strong>offers timely entry.</li>
</ul>


The Global X Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF (2858 JP) has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) year-to-date with a 4.5% advantage, demonstrating strength in sideways and moderately declining markets.
The covered call strategy can be deployed as a tactical standalone in sideways markets or as a relative value approach against a Nikkei 225 short.
For investors anticipating a continuation of the sideways or declining market, the option roll-over on the open of March 14 offers timely entry.


The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In a big surprise, there is only one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped yet again in September.</li>
</ul>


In a big surprise, there is only one change for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March with BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replacing Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP). 
The non-inclusion of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped yet again in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “<a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20250131E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei </a><a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20250131E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">225</a>” about the change in capping ratio of Fast Retailing (9983.T) in the Nikkei 225 index.</li>
<li>As per the <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/file/nikkei_stock_average_guidebook_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei Stock Average Index Guidebook</a> (cf. below) the capping ratio will be changed from 0.9 to 0.8 from April 1st, 2025.</li>
<li>The change in the capping ratio is meant to change the weight of the shares from the current 11.18% to below the cap threshold of 10%. </li>
</ul>


On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast Retailing (9983.T) in the Nikkei 225 index.
As per the Nikkei Stock Average Index Guidebook (cf. below) the capping ratio will be changed from 0.9 to 0.8 from April 1st, 2025.
The change in the capping ratio is meant to change the weight of the shares from the current 11.18% to below the cap threshold of 10%. 


Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback

Seven & I seeks shareholder approval for ¥2 trillion buyback despite Seven Eleven's struggles, but retail media could potentially help fund a...

Michael Causton

The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date.

This Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF has outperformed the market by 7.9% over the past six months. March 14 provides a timely entry point for either a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback

​Seven & I seeks shareholder approval for ¥2 trillion buyback despite Seven Eleven's struggles, but retail media could potentially help fund a...

Michael Causton

The Right Time for This Quantitative Strategy Outperforming the Nikkei Year to Date.

​This Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF has outperformed the market by 7.9% over the past six months. March 14 provides a timely entry point for either a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Seven & I seeks shareholder approval for ¥2 trillion buyback despite Seven Eleven's struggles, but retail media could potentially help fund a...

This Nikkei 225 Covered Call ETF has outperformed the market by 7.9% over the past six months. March 14 provides a timely entry point for either a...