Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a> as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. 

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.</li>
<li>Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.</li>
<li>While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.</li>
</ul>


With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.


Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ai plays generally down, with AMAT after mkt dulling sentiment further, despite looking conservative.</li>
<li>Kioxia numbers look decent, but QoQ guidance is down on FX, with no follow through for Sandisk in the US.</li>
<li>Woeful price action for Kyocera yesterday despite an activist win, with the market still cautious over management bungling.</li>
</ul>


Ai plays generally down, with AMAT after mkt dulling sentiment further, despite looking conservative.
Kioxia numbers look decent, but QoQ guidance is down on FX, with no follow through for Sandisk in the US.
Woeful price action for Kyocera yesterday despite an activist win, with the market still cautious over management bungling.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Rotation Away from Tech as Big Winners Take a Breather

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.</li>
<li>Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF in September, there is a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a> being capped again in March 2026.</li>
<li>The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> outperformance versus the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting's PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.</li>
<li>
Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).</li>
<li>
Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20's to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, S&amp;P 500 futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.

Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the Nikkei 225, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).

Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20's to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Market Rotation Away from Tech as Big Winners Take a Breather

Consumer staples and utilities up as market rotated towards defensive. Despite activist win, the market is still cautious with Kyocera.

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing will be capped in September unless the stock underperforms the index over the next 3 months. There could be more capping next March....

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Market Rotation Away from Tech as Big Winners Take a Breather

Consumer staples and utilities up as market rotated towards defensive. Despite activist win, the market is still cautious with Kyocera.

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing will be capped in September unless the stock underperforms the index over the next 3 months. There could be more capping next March....

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

​US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...

Gaudenz Schneider

US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...