Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The three big convenience store chains all posted record financial results for FY2023. </li>
<li>The format’s limitations were exposed by the pandemic, providing a catalyst for some major changes and prompting new and innovative marketing and support services.</li>
<li>These have made the sector more robust, but whether this new surge of growth will continue in 2024 will depend on how concerned customers are with higher prices.</li>
</ul>


The three big convenience store chains all posted record financial results for FY2023. 
The format’s limitations were exposed by the pandemic, providing a catalyst for some major changes and prompting new and innovative marketing and support services.
These have made the sector more robust, but whether this new surge of growth will continue in 2024 will depend on how concerned customers are with higher prices.


<ul>
<li>E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. </li>
<li>By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.</li>
<li>As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.</li>
</ul>


E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. 
By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.
As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.


E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

<ul>
<li>The growth in retail media (brand advertising delivered in stores based on detailed customer data) continues to be one of the big trends in 2024.</li>
<li>Large retailers are keen to add this new revenue stream – and lots of brands want to advertise with them – and companies like Rakuten are offering this service directly.</li>
<li>For many retailers, they still need help from experts in advertising and data analysis to make it work, providing an opportunity for Hakuhodo among others.</li>
</ul>


The growth in retail media (brand advertising delivered in stores based on detailed customer data) continues to be one of the big trends in 2024.
Large retailers are keen to add this new revenue stream – and lots of brands want to advertise with them – and companies like Rakuten are offering this service directly.
For many retailers, they still need help from experts in advertising and data analysis to make it work, providing an opportunity for Hakuhodo among others.


Retail Media in Japan: More Revenue for Retailers, More Sales for Brands

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> have kept their <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> offer unchanged and have decided to wait for the EQT/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> offer to close, convinced that it will fail. </li>
<li>Minorities have a free option on the higher Bain/LY offer. In the worst case, the EQT/DG offer succeeds, and in the best-case, it fails, and minorities get the Bain/LY offer.</li>
<li>The success of the EQT/DG offer relies heavily on KDDI's support, which remains uncertain. It is very likely that EQT/DG will at least match Bain/LY’s JPY3,640 offer. </li>
</ul>


Bain/LY (4689 JP) have kept their Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) offer unchanged and have decided to wait for the EQT/Digital Garage (4819 JP) offer to close, convinced that it will fail. 
Minorities have a free option on the higher Bain/LY offer. In the worst case, the EQT/DG offer succeeds, and in the best-case, it fails, and minorities get the Bain/LY offer.
The success of the EQT/DG offer relies heavily on KDDI's support, which remains uncertain. It is very likely that EQT/DG will at least match Bain/LY’s JPY3,640 offer. 


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A shift in composition needed in a Japanese portfolio this year</li>
<li>A weaker US and Japanese economy together with a stronger Yen will  make sector allocation key.</li>
<li>Some sectors to avoid or invest in during this next phase.</li>
</ul>


A shift in composition needed in a Japanese portfolio this year
A weaker US and Japanese economy together with a stronger Yen will  make sector allocation key.
Some sectors to avoid or invest in during this next phase.


2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 4

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Stellar Year for Conbini Chains

Convenience store chains saw record results in FY2023, with pandemic-driven changes prompting innovation and growth, but future success may hinge...

Michael Causton

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

Retail Media in Japan: More Revenue for Retailers, More Sales for Brands

Retail media, a big trend in 2024, offers major revenue potential for retailers as well as intermediaries like Hakuhodo in advertising and data...

Michael Causton

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

EQT/DG has raised its offer by JPY1 to JPY3,571 as 1) it cannot meet the lower limit, 2) it has no additional irrevocables to disclose, and 3) it...

Arun George

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 4

In light of a weaker US and Japanese economy and a stronger Yen, sector allocation is crucial for Japanese portfolios this year. Certain sectors...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Stellar Year for Conbini Chains

​Convenience store chains saw record results in FY2023, with pandemic-driven changes prompting innovation and growth, but future success may hinge...

Michael Causton

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

​E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

Retail Media in Japan: More Revenue for Retailers, More Sales for Brands

​Retail media, a big trend in 2024, offers major revenue potential for retailers as well as intermediaries like Hakuhodo in advertising and data...

Michael Causton

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

EQT/DG has raised its offer by JPY1 to JPY3,571 as 1) it cannot meet the lower limit, 2) it has no additional irrevocables to disclose, and 3) it...

Arun George

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 4

​In light of a weaker US and Japanese economy and a stronger Yen, sector allocation is crucial for Japanese portfolios this year. Certain sectors...

Rikki Malik

Convenience store chains saw record results in FY2023, with pandemic-driven changes prompting innovation and growth, but future success may hinge...

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Retail media, a big trend in 2024, offers major revenue potential for retailers as well as intermediaries like Hakuhodo in advertising and data...

In light of a weaker US and Japanese economy and a stronger Yen, sector allocation is crucial for Japanese portfolios this year. Certain sectors...