Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Mexico overweight reaches record levels among active GEM investors, moves to top country overweight.</li>
<li>Mexico a beneficiary from a rotation out of Russia, Turkey and Tech, alongside Brazil and some of the MENA nations.</li>
<li>Grupo Financiero Banorte and Wal-Mart de Mexico are widely held and have been instrumental in Mexico’s rise up the ranks over the past couple of years.  </li>
</ul>


Mexico overweight reaches record levels among active GEM investors, moves to top country overweight.
Mexico a beneficiary from a rotation out of Russia, Turkey and Tech, alongside Brazil and some of the MENA nations.
Grupo Financiero Banorte and Wal-Mart de Mexico are widely held and have been instrumental in Mexico’s rise up the ranks over the past couple of years.  


<p>Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.</p>

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Revenues of P$13.8bn grew only 0.3% YoY, below our estimates, with both Consumer and Away from Home declining (1% and 4%, respectively), vs our low growth estimates, while Exports grew 21%, better than expected and aided by FX tailwinds.</li><li> Margins were on average in line with our estimates, contracting YoY and with EBITDA margin of 25.1% in line with long-term target range of 25-27%.</li><li>At the gross margin level, results were underperforming amid a 410bps YoY contraction, yet EBIT and EBITDA margins contracted less and were slightly above our cautious estimates.</li></ul>

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew only 0.3% YoY, below our estimates, with both Consumer and Away from Home declining (1% and 4%, respectively), vs our low growth estimates, while Exports grew 21%, better than expected and aided by FX tailwinds. Margins were on average in line with our estimates, contracting YoY and with EBITDA margin of 25.1% in line with long-term target range of 25-27%.At the gross margin level, results were underperforming amid a 410bps YoY contraction, yet EBIT and EBITDA margins contracted less and were slightly above our cautious estimates.

Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A - Actinver Research

<ul><li>Revenues of P$13.8bn grew 3% YoY and were in line with our estimates.</li><li>Both Consumer and Exports grew (3% and 7%, respectively), while Away from Home was flattish YoY.</li><li> Margins were on average in line with our estimates, with EBITDA margin of 25.4% slightly below our expectations yet in line with target range of 25-27%.</li></ul>

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew 3% YoY and were in line with our estimates.Both Consumer and Exports grew (3% and 7%, respectively), while Away from Home was flattish YoY. Margins were on average in line with our estimates, with EBITDA margin of 25.4% slightly below our expectations yet in line with target range of 25-27%.

Actinver Research - Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 results close to our estimates

Mexico

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico, S.A.B. de C.V. manufactures, markets and distributes consumer, industrial, and institutional hygiene products. The Company produces feminine care items, diapers, toilet paper and facial tissues.

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Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A (KIMBERA MM)

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Mexico Moves to Top EM Overweight

Mexican exposure among EM investors grinds higher. Rotation among managers moves Mexico to the largest country overweight in EM, with current...

Steven Holden

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or...

Vermilion Research

Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A - Actinver Research

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew only 0.3% YoY, below our estimates, with both Consumer and Away from Home declining (1% and 4%, respectively), vs our...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 results close to our estimates

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew 3% YoY and were in line with our estimates. Both Consumer and Exports grew (3% and 7%, respectively), while Away from...

Actinver

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