Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Mexico overweight reaches record levels among active GEM investors, moves to top country overweight.</li>
<li>Mexico a beneficiary from a rotation out of Russia, Turkey and Tech, alongside Brazil and some of the MENA nations.</li>
<li>Grupo Financiero Banorte and Wal-Mart de Mexico are widely held and have been instrumental in Mexico’s rise up the ranks over the past couple of years.  </li>
</ul>


Mexico overweight reaches record levels among active GEM investors, moves to top country overweight.
Mexico a beneficiary from a rotation out of Russia, Turkey and Tech, alongside Brazil and some of the MENA nations.
Grupo Financiero Banorte and Wal-Mart de Mexico are widely held and have been instrumental in Mexico’s rise up the ranks over the past couple of years.  


Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

Vinda International / Forensic Accounting

In 2017, Vinda introduced a new compensation scheme that specifically targets share price performance. This appears to be part of Essity’s plan to improve returns across the group. Historically, management prioritised growth over margins and the stock underperformed. Changing the incentives should change the outcomes.Their overall Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance score, 104, is unexceptional. We worry about their payables, leverage and the fixed margin related party contracts…

In 2017, Vinda introduced a new compensation scheme that specifically targets share price performance. This appears to be part of Essity’s plan to improve returns across the group. Historically, management prioritised growth over margins and the stock underperformed. Changing the incentives should change the outcomes.Their overall Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance score, 104, is unexceptional. We worry about their payables, leverage and the fixed margin related party contracts…

Buy Vinda (3331 HK): New Incentives, Leverage & Margins - Target HK$25.2 (Up 80%+)

Hengan International Group / Forensic Accounting

We are concerned that Hengan’s governance leaves minorities vulnerable, their accounts create false confidence in credit quality; and that business performance is unsustainable.The overall Governance, Accounting risk and Performance score of 119 is not very bad, but the aggregate hides extreme scores for debt churn, margins and leverage.With limited revenue growth, the stock’s premium valuation relies on its high margins. If they prove to be unsustainable, investors could be in for a shock.…

We are concerned that Hengan’s governance leaves minorities vulnerable, their accounts create false confidence in credit quality; and that business performance is unsustainable.The overall Governance, Accounting risk and Performance score of 119 is not very bad, but the aggregate hides extreme scores for debt churn, margins and leverage.With limited revenue growth, the stock’s premium valuation relies on its high margins. If they prove to be unsustainable, investors could be in for a shock.…

Sell Hengan (1044 HK): Relationships, Churn & Margin Pressure. Target HK$38 (Down 50%)

Mexico

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico, S.A.B. de C.V. manufactures, markets and distributes consumer, industrial, and institutional hygiene products. The Company produces feminine care items, diapers, toilet paper and facial tissues.

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Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A (KIMBERA MM)

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Mexico Moves to Top EM Overweight

Mexican exposure among EM investors grinds higher. Rotation among managers moves Mexico to the largest country overweight in EM, with current...

Steven Holden

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or...

Vermilion Research

Buy Vinda (3331 HK): New Incentives, Leverage & Margins - Target HK$25.2 (Up 80%+)

In 2017, Vinda introduced a new compensation scheme that specifically targets share price performance. This appears to be part of Essity’s plan to...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Sell Hengan (1044 HK): Relationships, Churn & Margin Pressure. Target HK$38 (Down 50%)

We are concerned that Hengan’s governance leaves minorities vulnerable, their accounts create false confidence in credit quality; and that business...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

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