Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You'd only want to be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> if you're very bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a>and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.</li>
<li>It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>On balance, the optics in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> are looking attractive. </li>
</ul>


You'd only want to be long Sun Corp (6736 JP) if you're very bullish Cellebrite (CLBT US)and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.
It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in Kioxia (285A JP).
On balance, the optics in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) are looking attractive. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Management Addresses Recently Closed US$2.5B Strategic Placement. SanDisk, Kioxia, SK Hynix's Solidigm, and Cisco took 10.19% of Nanya Technology (2408 TT) to lock in legacy DRAM supply.</li>
<li>
FY1Q26 Confirms Supply-Driven Tightness That Will Persist. Nanya reported 67.9% gross margin with ASPs +&gt;70% QoQ on falling bit shipments; management cannot satisfy market demand this year.</li>
<li>
Close Our Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> / Short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> Pair. SK has rallied to new highs while Nanya has retraced from its peak.</li>
</ul>



Management Addresses Recently Closed US$2.5B Strategic Placement. SanDisk, Kioxia, SK Hynix's Solidigm, and Cisco took 10.19% of Nanya Technology (2408 TT) to lock in legacy DRAM supply.

FY1Q26 Confirms Supply-Driven Tightness That Will Persist. Nanya reported 67.9% gross margin with ASPs +&gt;70% QoQ on falling bit shipments; management cannot satisfy market demand this year.

Close Our Long SK Hynix (000660 KS) / Short Nanya Technology (2408 TT) Pair. SK has rallied to new highs while Nanya has retraced from its peak.


Why Nanya Results and Placement Mean Memory Tightness to Last Much Longer; Close SK Hynix/Nanya Pair

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Apr 10th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD21,502m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Kioxia, Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Fujikura, Nintendo, Tokyo Electron, JX Advanced Metals, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SoftBank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Apr 10th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD21,502m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Kioxia, Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Fujikura, Nintendo, Tokyo Electron, JX Advanced Metals, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SoftBank.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Apr 10th): Advantest, Kioxia, Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Fujikura

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>At the end of March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> agreed to have Mitsubishi Electric join the Toshiba/Rohm power semi talks.</li>
<li>The language in the documents released is worthwhile a close look. I expect a Rohm/Toshiba deal announcement within the quarter. If control/consolidation/stake levels are agreed, Mitsubishi won't be far behind.</li>
<li>Joining the three businesses creates lots of potential synergies, making the businesses #2 in the world. Separately, Kioxia's recent gains highlight the value of Rohm's Toshiba stake and Rohm's value.</li>
</ul>


At the end of March, Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) agreed to have Mitsubishi Electric join the Toshiba/Rohm power semi talks.
The language in the documents released is worthwhile a close look. I expect a Rohm/Toshiba deal announcement within the quarter. If control/consolidation/stake levels are agreed, Mitsubishi won't be far behind.
Joining the three businesses creates lots of potential synergies, making the businesses #2 in the world. Separately, Kioxia's recent gains highlight the value of Rohm's Toshiba stake and Rohm's value.


[Japan M&A] Rohm (6963) - Refreshing Rohm's Stake Value in Toshiba, and Thinking About NEWCO

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a>, a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.
TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Tekscend Photomask IPO Lockup Expiry - US$1.1bn Lockup Release

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Why Nanya Results and Placement Mean Memory Tightness to Last Much Longer; Close SK Hynix/Nanya Pair

Nanya investors secure legacy DRAM supply with US$2.5B placement, Nanya enjoying supply-driven tightness as ASPs soar, consider closing long SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Apr 10th): Advantest, Kioxia, Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Fujikura

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Kioxia (285A JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Fast...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan M&A] Rohm (6963) - Refreshing Rohm's Stake Value in Toshiba, and Thinking About NEWCO

Adding Mitsubishi Elec to Toshiba/Rohm talks on combining power semi businesses is worded as if its in a hurry. That's good. NEWCO adds value....

Travis Lundy

Aequitas: Tekscend Photomask IPO Lockup Expiry - US$1.1bn Lockup Release

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Why Nanya Results and Placement Mean Memory Tightness to Last Much Longer; Close SK Hynix/Nanya Pair

​Nanya investors secure legacy DRAM supply with US$2.5B placement, Nanya enjoying supply-driven tightness as ASPs soar, consider closing long SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Apr 10th): Advantest, Kioxia, Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Fujikura

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Kioxia (285A JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Fast...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan M&A] Rohm (6963) - Refreshing Rohm's Stake Value in Toshiba, and Thinking About NEWCO

Adding Mitsubishi Elec to Toshiba/Rohm talks on combining power semi businesses is worded as if its in a hurry. That's good. NEWCO adds value....

Travis Lundy

Aequitas: Tekscend Photomask IPO Lockup Expiry - US$1.1bn Lockup Release

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Nanya investors secure legacy DRAM supply with US$2.5B placement, Nanya enjoying supply-driven tightness as ASPs soar, consider closing long SK...