Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Our expectations for Micron's upcoming earnings call are very positive for four reasons:</p><ul>
<li>DRAM and NAND pricing is up</li>
<li>Demand has been solid for the whole first half, with no signs of softening</li>
<li>The company is shifting its mix to higher-margin products</li>
<li>Costs are being reduced through process leadership</li>
</ul>

Our expectations for Micron's upcoming earnings call are very positive for four reasons:
DRAM and NAND pricing is up
Demand has been solid for the whole first half, with no signs of softening
The company is shifting its mix to higher-margin products
Costs are being reduced through process leadership


What to Expect from the June 30 Micron Earnings Call

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced results in mid-May along with a somewhat surprising plan to "return ¥150bn to shareholders", with method to be specified later - in early June. </p><p>On 7 June in the morning, Toshiba <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_1.pdf?_ga=2.28792570.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> how it would allocate that ¥150 billion.</p><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Toshiba would pay a <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_2.pdf?_ga=2.28905850.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">¥50 billion dividend</a> (¥110/share) to shareholders of record on 30 June 2021. Toshiba fell ¥125/share today (29 June) closing at ¥4765 as that dividend went ex-.</li>
<li>Toshiba would <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_1.pdf?_ga=2.28792570.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buy back</a> up to 27mm shares spending up to ¥100 billion in a buyback using ToSTNeT-3 and open-market buybacks, with the program lasting until the end of calendar 2021.</li>
</ul>
<p>Today after the close, Toshiba announced a buyback of up to ¥100 billion to be executed via ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow morning from 8:00-8:45 JST for up to 20,986,300 shares.</p>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/978/original/Screenshot+2021-06-29+at+5.31.02+PM.png?1624959123" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215978"></figure><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">source: Toshiba <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/jp/news/20210629_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> (Japanese)</div></section><p>This is not dissimilar to the explanation provided in the third ToSTNeT-3 transaction Toshiba conducted in Q4 2018. This one, is however, quite a bit smaller than that one was. </p>
<p>It is worth thinking about here. While Toshiba may not intend this to be a prisoner's dilemma situation, it resembles one. </p>
<p>That deserves more explanation and discussion, below.</p></section><p></p>
</div>

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced results in mid-May along with a somewhat surprising plan to "return ¥150bn to shareholders", with method to be specified later - in early June. On 7 June in the morning, Toshiba announced how it would allocate that ¥150 billion.

Toshiba would pay a ¥50 billion dividend (¥110/share) to shareholders of record on 30 June 2021. Toshiba fell ¥125/share today (29 June) closing at ¥4765 as that dividend went ex-.
Toshiba would buy back up to 27mm shares spending up to ¥100 billion in a buyback using ToSTNeT-3 and open-market buybacks, with the program lasting until the end of calendar 2021.

Today after the close, Toshiba announced a buyback of up to ¥100 billion to be executed via ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow morning from 8:00-8:45 JST for up to 20,986,300 shares.
source: Toshiba announcement (Japanese)This is not dissimilar to the explanation provided in the third ToSTNeT-3 transaction Toshiba conducted in Q4 2018. This one, is however, quite a bit smaller than that one was. 
It is worth thinking about here. While Toshiba may not intend this to be a prisoner's dilemma situation, it resembles one. 
That deserves more explanation and discussion, below.


Toshiba ToSTNeT-3 Buyback For All The Marbles, and 🐓s

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced results in mid-May along with a somewhat surprising plan to "return ¥150bn to shareholders", with method to be specified later - in early June. </p><p>It is now early June and this morning Toshiba has <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_1.pdf?_ga=2.28792570.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> how it will allocate the ¥150 billion.</p><ul>
<li>Toshiba will pay a <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_2.pdf?_ga=2.28905850.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">¥50 billion dividend</a> (¥110/share) to shareholders of record on 30 June 2021. The company has updated its annual dividend forecast for the year to be ¥110/share, including a ¥40/share dividend for both first half and second half.</li>
<li>Toshiba will <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_1.pdf?_ga=2.28792570.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buy back</a> up to 27mm shares spending up to ¥100 billion in a buyback using ToSTNeT-3 and open-market buybacks, with the program lasting until the end of calendar 2021.</li>
</ul><p>How to play this is a different story. More below.</p>

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced results in mid-May along with a somewhat surprising plan to "return ¥150bn to shareholders", with method to be specified later - in early June. It is now early June and this morning Toshiba has announced how it will allocate the ¥150 billion.
Toshiba will pay a ¥50 billion dividend (¥110/share) to shareholders of record on 30 June 2021. The company has updated its annual dividend forecast for the year to be ¥110/share, including a ¥40/share dividend for both first half and second half.
Toshiba will buy back up to 27mm shares spending up to ¥100 billion in a buyback using ToSTNeT-3 and open-market buybacks, with the program lasting until the end of calendar 2021.
How to play this is a different story. More below.

Toshiba Shareholder Return - A Little of This, A Little of That, But Sticky and Accretive

<p>Last week, Bain Capital Japan and Japan Industrial Partners and Japan Industrial Solutions (the "Bain Consortium") announced it would launch a Tender Offer to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> minority shareholders at ¥2181/share when all approvals had been received. Future dividends were cancelled. </p><p>The first part of this series was in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bain-bids-up-big-for-hitachi-metals-5486-now-we-wait" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50820" rel="noopener">Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait</a>. The Tender Offer is expected to start in November. That gives current holders 8+ months to wait for their cash. </p><p>Below we look at what waiting means.</p>

Last week, Bain Capital Japan and Japan Industrial Partners and Japan Industrial Solutions (the "Bain Consortium") announced it would launch a Tender Offer to buy out Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) minority shareholders at ¥2181/share when all approvals had been received. Future dividends were cancelled. The first part of this series was in Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait. The Tender Offer is expected to start in November. That gives current holders 8+ months to wait for their cash. Below we look at what waiting means.

Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

<p>SK hynix' earnings call today showed good results, and management's outlook is for an even more positive second quarter and second half.  As a result, the company is accelerating its capital spending.</p>

SK hynix' earnings call today showed good results, and management's outlook is for an even more positive second quarter and second half.  As a result, the company is accelerating its capital spending.

SK Hynix Posts Good Results, Expects Even Better

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

What to Expect from the June 30 Micron Earnings Call

Micron Technology is poised to disclose strong growth and earnings in tomorrow's quarterly call. This Smartkarma Insight provides four reasons why.

Jim Handy

Toshiba ToSTNeT-3 Buyback For All The Marbles, and 🐓s

Toshiba has launched a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow morning for the entire size of its planned buyback. If it gets the stock, that's it. If not, it...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba Shareholder Return - A Little of This, A Little of That, But Sticky and Accretive

Toshiba announces their Shareholder Return Allocation. One-third to a special div, two-thirds to buybacks. The buybacks may take place early, but...

Travis Lundy

Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

Hitachi Metals - The Rate of Return is decent for an unlevered arb in JPY, but not great for a long-only investment. This bodes well for a changing...

Travis Lundy

SK Hynix Posts Good Results, Expects Even Better

SK hynix' April 28 earnings call disclosed not only a good first quarter, but also a great outlook for the rest of 2021, not just for SK hynix, but...

Jim Handy

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