Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 31 March.</li>
<li>Since announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> stock is up with cumulative excess volume increasing, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a> is lower on a much bigger increase in cumulative excess volume.</li>
<li>Some of the forecast adds and deletes have moved as one would expect, but positioning for the September rebalance could lead to reversals over the next few weeks and months.</li>
</ul>



BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close of trading on 31 March.
Since announcement, BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) stock is up with cumulative excess volume increasing, while Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) is lower on a much bigger increase in cumulative excess volume.
Some of the forecast adds and deletes have moved as one would expect, but positioning for the September rebalance could lead to reversals over the next few weeks and months.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.</li>
<li>As explained by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.</li>
<li>The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.
As explained by Travis Lundy and Brian Freitas the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.
The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.


Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

JX Advanced Metals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.</li>
<li>Relevant notes: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176683" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176843" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-price-range-is-fair" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:178246" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair</a>.</li>
<li>Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.
Relevant notes: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair.
Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a>’s parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


JX Advance Metals IPO Trading - Demand Wasn’t Great

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Did Trump do <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a> a solid, convincing them to sell assets that have profited from international trade growth, just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on anything that moves?</li>
<li>An OK package for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>. Not perfect. SEI IPO's a bit dodgy. It may be designed to spur ACT into action, but isn't an awful fallback.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill (3978 JP)</a>'s Offer bumped.  If you want to make sure this deal doesn't get done, do the things you need to do to make sure it doesn't get done.</li>
</ul>


Did Trump do CKH (1 HK) a solid, convincing them to sell assets that have profited from international trade growth, just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on anything that moves?
An OK package for Seven &amp; I (3382 JP). Not perfect. SEI IPO's a bit dodgy. It may be designed to spur ACT into action, but isn't an awful fallback.

Macromill (3978 JP)'s Offer bumped.  If you want to make sure this deal doesn't get done, do the things you need to do to make sure it doesn't get done.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Cheung Kong, Macromill, China National Building Material, Canvest

Japan

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

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Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

Baycurrent could follow Nitori's playbook. Mitsubishi Logistics could drop some more. Kokusai is underperforming the SOX. Okuma and Tokuyama are up...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

The March 25 Index rebalance is approaching, the index appears oversold according to our models, this insight is quite timely in predicting a...

Nico Rosti

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the...

Arun George

JX Advance Metals IPO Trading - Demand Wasn’t Great

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Cheung Kong, Macromill, China National Building Material, Canvest

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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