Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a> in the market or tender.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a> is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> appears "cheap" to 90%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH)</a>; however recent implied stub figures have rolled over</li>
</ul>


Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) in the market or tender.

Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.

Wilmar International (WIL SP) appears "cheap" to 90%-held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH); however recent implied stub figures have rolled over


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

<ul>
<li>Back in May this year, shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC World Public (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a> all went limit down. Twice.</li>
<li>This situation was discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/LAfHm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call</a>. Reportedly Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, leading to margin calls.</li>
<li>On the 16th August, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged, with pledged shares in KTC now at 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.</li>
</ul>


Back in May this year, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
This situation was discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call. Reportedly Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, leading to margin calls.
On the 16th August, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged, with pledged shares in KTC now at 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.


Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Still A Buy As Pledged Shares Further Decline

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating with a new fair value of Bt33.00, based on a required return of 9.3% (previously Bt45.50 and 6.6%), reflecting changes in our macro assumptions: Rf = 1.48%, MRP = 6.83% (previously 2.07% and 5.58%).</li><li>The new fair value offers approximately 19% upside from the current market price.</li><li>The long-term growth outlook is weaker than peers, with net profit expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% during 2025- 27E. The tactical downside risk is very limited.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating with a new fair value of Bt33.00, based on a required return of 9.3% (previously Bt45.50 and 6.6%), reflecting changes in our macro assumptions: Rf = 1.48%, MRP = 6.83% (previously 2.07% and 5.58%).The new fair value offers approximately 19% upside from the current market price.The long-term growth outlook is weaker than peers, with net profit expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% during 2025- 27E. The tactical downside risk is very limited.

Krungthai Card - In-Line Earnings; Better Asset Quality

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> walks away from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, and accuses 7&amp;i's Board, management, and the Special Committee of bad faith and bad governance.</li>
<li>Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a> with both hands as pledged sharesfall to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.</li>
<li>If you have borrow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a>, use it. Otherwise, avoid like the plague. It would not be surprising if the TSE were to ding someone on manipulation. </li>
</ul>



Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) walks away from Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), and accuses 7&amp;i's Board, management, and the Special Committee of bad faith and bad governance.
Buy Krungthai Card (KTC TB) with both hands as pledged sharesfall to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.
If you have borrow on GMO Internet (4784 JP), use it. Otherwise, avoid like the plague. It would not be surprising if the TSE were to ding someone on manipulation. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson

<ul>
<li>Late last month, shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring Capital (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC World Public (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a> all went limit down. Twice. </li>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/193869/Krungthai%20Card%20(KTC%20TB):%20Buying%20Opportunity%20After%20Margin%20Call.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/LAfHm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call</a>, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls. </li>
<li>Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month. </li>
</ul>


Late last month, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice. 
As discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls. 
Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month. 


Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover

Thailand

Krungthai Card Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based financial services company primarily engaged in credit card and personal loan businesses. The company offers a variety of credit cards, merchant acquiring services, payment services, and personal loan products including auto title loans, provincial retail lending, and e-money services. It was founded in Bangkok, Thailand, in 1996.

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Krungthai Card (KTC TB)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett