IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>’s tender offer from a JIC alliance is at JPY5,920. Today’s update notes that JIC has satisfied the regulatory precondition. </li>
<li>The tender offer is expected to commence in mid-February. The Board will continue to recommend it because it remains attractive. </li>
<li>Deal fatigue (announced in December 2023) and Ibiden's derating will nudge shareholders to accept. At the last close and for an end-of-March payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/3.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)’s tender offer from a JIC alliance is at JPY5,920. Today’s update notes that JIC has satisfied the regulatory precondition. 
The tender offer is expected to commence in mid-February. The Board will continue to recommend it because it remains attractive. 
Deal fatigue (announced in December 2023) and Ibiden's derating will nudge shareholders to accept. At the last close and for an end-of-March payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/3.9%.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>You could label <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a>"BULLISH" because the stock goes up rather than down; but you could easily label this BEARISH because the prospects aren't exciting.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>spins off <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smithfield-foods-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44251:1" rel="noopener">Smithfield Foods (SFD US)</a> - below the prior expected price range.  Pricing looks full here.</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>'s Partial Offer heads towards the pointy end, do you buy, and/or borrow, and tender; short outright; or short tender?</li>
</ul>


You could label Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)"BULLISH" because the stock goes up rather than down; but you could easily label this BEARISH because the prospects aren't exciting.

WH Group (288 HK)spins off Smithfield Foods (SFD US) - below the prior expected price range.  Pricing looks full here.
As China National Building Material (3323 HK)'s Partial Offer heads towards the pointy end, do you buy, and/or borrow, and tender; short outright; or short tender?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, WH Group/Smithfield, CNBM, Japan Eyewear, Core Concept Tech

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today, in conjunction with the release of Q3 earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a> announced a change in its Corporate Governance Code doc, a change in Cross-holding Policy, and Buyback Policy.</li>
<li>Full-Year earnings guidance revision was non-salutary. Revs -1%, OP -69%, Net Profit -72% vs previous predictions from 30 October (those were -1.5%, -38.2%, -36.6% vs April guidance at the time). </li>
<li>Based on this disappointment, they announced they would speed up the sale of crossholdings and buy back shares this year and over the following three years.</li>
</ul>


Today, in conjunction with the release of Q3 earnings, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced a change in its Corporate Governance Code doc, a change in Cross-holding Policy, and Buyback Policy.
Full-Year earnings guidance revision was non-salutary. Revs -1%, OP -69%, Net Profit -72% vs previous predictions from 30 October (those were -1.5%, -38.2%, -36.6% vs April guidance at the time). 
Based on this disappointment, they announced they would speed up the sale of crossholdings and buy back shares this year and over the following three years.


Kyocera (6971) - Changes Policies - Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>EV price cuts in Europe impact used car market, while US industry faces tariffs</li><li>Kyocera to sell $1.27 billion in non-core business due to declining profits</li><li>Toyota and Nvidia collaborate at CES 2025 for AI alliance towards autonomous future</li></ul>

EV price cuts in Europe impact used car market, while US industry faces tariffsKyocera to sell $1.27 billion in non-core business due to declining profitsToyota and Nvidia collaborate at CES 2025 for AI alliance towards autonomous future

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Jan-2025): 2025 used car markets: EU EV prices drop, US tariffs rise.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Japan

Kyocera Corporation manufacturers electronic equipment and components. The Company's products include telecommunication equipment, information equipment, optical equipment, ceramic products, semiconductor parts, chips, hybrid integrated circuits, thermal printheads, image sensors, liquid crystal displays, and connectors. Kyocera operates worldwide.

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Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch

The precondition is satisfied, and the tender offer is from 18 February to 18 March (20 business days). Deal fatigue and the derating of Ibiden...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, WH Group/Smithfield, CNBM, Japan Eyewear, Core Concept Tech

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Kyocera (6971) - Changes Policies - Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares

Yesterday, Kyocera announced it would accelerate plans to sell one-third of its KDDI stake to next two years from next five years. It will also buy...

Travis Lundy

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Jan-2025): 2025 used car markets: EU EV prices drop, US tariffs rise.

Europe sees impact from EV price cuts, US faces tariffs; Kyocera sells off non-essential business, Toyota and Nvidia partner for autonomous future,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

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