IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. </li>
<li>Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.</li>
<li>VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  </li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. 
Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.
VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  


2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a>, a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade. </li>
<li>The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. </li>
<li>VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  </li>
</ul>



VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade. 
The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. 
VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  


China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China.</li>
<li>Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to nurture local governments into VC’s to (partially) replace land finance as a pillar of fiscal revenue;</li>
<li>The resulted policy measures and shifts will benefit STAR SSE as a politically oriented destination and EV/renewable sectors as national championships, at the expense of the consumer sector.</li>
</ul>


We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China.
Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to nurture local governments into VC’s to (partially) replace land finance as a pillar of fiscal revenue;
The resulted policy measures and shifts will benefit STAR SSE as a politically oriented destination and EV/renewable sectors as national championships, at the expense of the consumer sector.


Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.</li><li>Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.</li><li>Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-industrial-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrial Technology</a> is now looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company background and refiling updates in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the refiling updates.</li>
</ul>



JD Industrial Technology is now looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
We have looked at the company background and refiling updates in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the refiling updates.


JD Industrials Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuations

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation

VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to...

Arun George

Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.

We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China. Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.

CMB International

JD Industrials Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuations

JD Industrial Technology is now looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we undertake an updated peer comparison and...

Sumeet Singh

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