External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are of the view that Li Auto has lowered priority for its FY24E profitability and the sell-off after the 1Q24 earnings call has largely priced in such management mentality.</li><li>We believe the key lies in its new BEV strategy, EREV sales recovery in 2H24 and FY25 sales growth with BEVs being postponed.</li><li>1Q24 GP in line; R&amp;D and SG&amp;A dragged NP. Li Auto’s 1Q24 revenue was about 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to its other sales and services.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We are of the view that Li Auto has lowered priority for its FY24E profitability and the sell-off after the 1Q24 earnings call has largely priced in such management mentality.We believe the key lies in its new BEV strategy, EREV sales recovery in 2H24 and FY25 sales growth with BEVs being postponed.1Q24 GP in line; R&amp;D and SG&amp;A dragged NP. Li Auto’s 1Q24 revenue was about 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to its other sales and services.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) - Is the Mega Lesson Worthwhile?

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Operating profit turned negative in 1Q24 compared to 1Q23 due to the price war and the failure of new model.</li>
<li>The company disappeared from the industry top-10 list of sales volume and revenue growth slowed down to zero in April.</li>
<li>All cross-sectional comparisons suggest a Sell rating for the stock.</li>
</ul>


Operating profit turned negative in 1Q24 compared to 1Q23 due to the price war and the failure of new model.
The company disappeared from the industry top-10 list of sales volume and revenue growth slowed down to zero in April.
All cross-sectional comparisons suggest a Sell rating for the stock.


Li Auto (LI US): 1Q24, A List of Bad News

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.</li>
<li>Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.</li>
<li>Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.</li>
</ul>


The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.


EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed across three exchanges. </li>
<li>NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in 2026 is likely to be broken.  </li>
<li>NIO’s valuation is stretched as it trades at a material premium to median Chinese EV peers’ EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples. </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed across three exchanges. 
NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in 2026 is likely to be broken.  
NIO’s valuation is stretched as it trades at a material premium to median Chinese EV peers’ EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples. 


2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (2498 HK)</a> raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.</li>
<li>The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) - Is the Mega Lesson Worthwhile?

We are of the view that Li Auto has lowered priority for its FY24E profitability and the sell-off after the 1Q24 earnings call has largely priced...

CMB International

Li Auto (LI US): 1Q24, A List of Bad News

Operating profit turned negative due to the price war and the failure of new model. Sales volume disappeared from the industry top-10 list and...

Ming Lu

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in...

Arun George

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Li Auto Inc. (LI US) - Is the Mega Lesson Worthwhile?

We are of the view that Li Auto has lowered priority for its FY24E profitability and the sell-off after the 1Q24 earnings call has largely priced...

CMB International

Li Auto (LI US): 1Q24, A List of Bad News

Operating profit turned negative due to the price war and the failure of new model. Sales volume disappeared from the industry top-10 list and...

Ming Lu

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

​Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

2025 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

NIO will likely struggle to reignite its growth with its three-brand strategy in a fiercely competitive market. Its promise to reach breakeven in...

Arun George

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...