China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China.</li>
<li>Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to nurture local governments into VC’s to (partially) replace land finance as a pillar of fiscal revenue;</li>
<li>The resulted policy measures and shifts will benefit STAR SSE as a politically oriented destination and EV/renewable sectors as national championships, at the expense of the consumer sector.</li>
</ul>


We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China.
Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to nurture local governments into VC’s to (partially) replace land finance as a pillar of fiscal revenue;
The resulted policy measures and shifts will benefit STAR SSE as a politically oriented destination and EV/renewable sectors as national championships, at the expense of the consumer sector.


Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.</li><li>Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.</li><li>Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Just days after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> surpassed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> as the world’s largest electric vehicle producer by sales, is Warren Buffet cashing in his chips?</li>
<li>225mn shares of BYD  - 7.73% of the H shares - moved into CCASS yesterday. These are Berkshire Hathaway's shares. </li>
<li>For a shareholder who has kept his holding in share certificates for 13 years, this development suggests the possibility of a partial or full exit. </li>
</ul>


Just days after BYD (1211 HK) surpassed Tesla Motors (TSLA US) as the world’s largest electric vehicle producer by sales, is Warren Buffet cashing in his chips?
225mn shares of BYD  - 7.73% of the H shares - moved into CCASS yesterday. These are Berkshire Hathaway's shares. 
For a shareholder who has kept his holding in share certificates for 13 years, this development suggests the possibility of a partial or full exit. 


Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Eva Precision Industrial Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eva-precision-industrial-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17511:1" rel="noopener">Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK)</a> is a supplier of office and automotive equipment (seat/battery frames and moulds), trading at 8.1x PE FY22 with an inflection point in earnings growth.</li>
<li>As a supplier to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, and Lucid, it is a play on the expansion of the EV space.</li>
<li>Legacy business of office equipment will also experience growth due to the exit of foreign businesses like Fuji and Samsung enabling the company to have 25% CAGR revenue growth.</li>
</ul>



Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a supplier of office and automotive equipment (seat/battery frames and moulds), trading at 8.1x PE FY22 with an inflection point in earnings growth.
As a supplier to Tesla Motors (TSLA US), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), and Lucid, it is a play on the expansion of the EV space.
Legacy business of office equipment will also experience growth due to the exit of foreign businesses like Fuji and Samsung enabling the company to have 25% CAGR revenue growth.


EVA Precision 838 HK: Play on EV Market Growth

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>The EV market offers bright long term prospects supported by technological progress and government incentives, particularly in China.</li>
<li>In the short term, surging raw material costs and supply bottlenecks are significant risks and could take longer to resolve than many suspect.</li>
<li>We believe the high-end performance segment and low-end mini/city vehicle segments are most suitable for rapid EV penetration.</li>
</ul>


The EV market offers bright long term prospects supported by technological progress and government incentives, particularly in China.
In the short term, surging raw material costs and supply bottlenecks are significant risks and could take longer to resolve than many suspect.
We believe the high-end performance segment and low-end mini/city vehicle segments are most suitable for rapid EV penetration.


China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.

We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China. Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.

CMB International

BYD (1211 HK): Is Buffett Bailing?

BYD is expensive, even after this morning's decline. The recent price run-up appears to hit Buffet's exit level. I'd look to sell here and on any...

David Blennerhassett

EVA Precision 838 HK: Play on EV Market Growth

Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a supplier of office and automotive equipment (seat/battery frames and molds), trading at 8.1x PE...

Sameer Taneja

China’s Evolving EV Industry

With attractive long term prospects but a short term clouded by raw material prices investors should focus on a barbell approach to EVs examining...

Mio Kato

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