IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 22 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VOYAH application proof</a>, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative. </li>
<li>Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85. </li>
</ul>


On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative. 
Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85. 


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hesai-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36743:1" rel="noopener">Hesai Group (HSAI US)</a> raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the ADS movement and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Hesai Group (HSAI US) raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. 
In this note, we talk about the ADS movement and trading dynamics.


Hesai Secondary Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Correction

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 LiDAR TAM is underestimated - Current consensus misses the true size. Our work suggests 2030 TAM can be 70–120% higher than implied; Hesai best positioned as the market leader.</li>
<li>Three Sub-segments Key -China LiDAR penetration reaching 60% penetration, Global ex-China ADAS (and LiDAR) adoption accelerating to 25–35%, and Robotics (logistics, humanoids, appliances) building upto $60bn market by 2030.</li>
<li>Though the use-cases and upside for the sector can be far beyond current estimates, the industry faces a significant technology risk and the jury is still out.</li>
</ul>



 LiDAR TAM is underestimated - Current consensus misses the true size. Our work suggests 2030 TAM can be 70–120% higher than implied; Hesai best positioned as the market leader.
Three Sub-segments Key -China LiDAR penetration reaching 60% penetration, Global ex-China ADAS (and LiDAR) adoption accelerating to 25–35%, and Robotics (logistics, humanoids, appliances) building upto $60bn market by 2030.
Though the use-cases and upside for the sector can be far beyond current estimates, the industry faces a significant technology risk and the jury is still out.


Hesai Secondary HK Offering: What Is LiDAR’s Real TAM? Big Upside, One Big Risk.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a>, a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. </li>
<li>The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.</li>
<li>While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. 
The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  


NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US.</li>
<li>The company had last raised around US$450m in March 2025. The deal didn’t end up doing well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US.
The company had last raised around US$450m in March 2025. The deal didn’t end up doing well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


NIO HK/ADS Placement - Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are...

Arun George

Hesai Secondary Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Correction

Hesai Group (HSAI US) raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Hesai Secondary HK Offering: What Is LiDAR’s Real TAM? Big Upside, One Big Risk.

Hesai Secondary Listing: LiDAR market potential underestimated, 2030 TAM could be 70-120% higher. Hesai poised as leader. Apart from China, global...

Raj S, CA, CFA

NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying...

Arun George

NIO HK/ADS Placement - Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn

NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are...

Arun George

Hesai Secondary Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Correction

Hesai Group (HSAI US) raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Hesai Secondary HK Offering: What Is LiDAR’s Real TAM? Big Upside, One Big Risk.

Hesai Secondary Listing: ​LiDAR market potential underestimated, 2030 TAM could be 70-120% higher. Hesai poised as leader. Apart from China, global...

Raj S, CA, CFA

NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying...

Arun George

NIO HK/ADS Placement - Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn

NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Hesai Secondary Listing: LiDAR market potential underestimated, 2030 TAM could be 70-120% higher. Hesai poised as leader. Apart from China, global...