Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
LiDAR adoption accelerating. The TAM remains larger than consensus implies for further years, driven by rising ADAS penetration and expanding Robotics use cases across China and Globally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (2498 HK)</a> lagged in 1H25 but recovering now. 1H25 execution issues reverse in 2H25 as EMX ramps and anchor customers penetration rises, bringing shipments back to consensus levels.</li>
<li>
Long-Term optionality intact. Robotics growth, overseas programs, and new fusion products position RoboSense for structural upside as global LiDAR adoption broadens through 2026–2030. Within LiDAR, We like both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hesai-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36743:1" rel="noopener">Hesai</a>
</li>
</ul>



LiDAR adoption accelerating. The TAM remains larger than consensus implies for further years, driven by rising ADAS penetration and expanding Robotics use cases across China and Globally.

Robosense Technology (2498 HK) lagged in 1H25 but recovering now. 1H25 execution issues reverse in 2H25 as EMX ramps and anchor customers penetration rises, bringing shipments back to consensus levels.

Long-Term optionality intact. Robotics growth, overseas programs, and new fusion products position RoboSense for structural upside as global LiDAR adoption broadens through 2026–2030. Within LiDAR, We like both Robosense and Hesai



RoboSense Technology (2498.HK) – LiDAR Tech Challenger - Execution Reset, 2026e Recovery in Focus

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Southbound net buying jumped sharply to US$24.2bn in September. This was the highest ever. So was the average daily trading volume of US$20.3bn. Alibaba constituted 40% of total net buying.</li>
<li>Tencent, SMIC, Meituan were bought heavily, while Xiaomi and Pop Mart continue to be sold. Investors are likely avoiding the sectors with disorderly price wars and stocks with super-premium valuations.</li>
<li>In H2'25, the biotech companies, Innovent Biologics, XTALPI and Akeso are Southbound investors' favorites. The buying momentum could continue here as long as the tailwind of frequent licensing deals lasts.</li>
</ul>


Southbound net buying jumped sharply to US$24.2bn in September. This was the highest ever. So was the average daily trading volume of US$20.3bn. Alibaba constituted 40% of total net buying.
Tencent, SMIC, Meituan were bought heavily, while Xiaomi and Pop Mart continue to be sold. Investors are likely avoiding the sectors with disorderly price wars and stocks with super-premium valuations.
In H2'25, the biotech companies, Innovent Biologics, XTALPI and Akeso are Southbound investors' favorites. The buying momentum could continue here as long as the tailwind of frequent licensing deals lasts.


Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly- Below September's BABA Exuberance Biotech Continued to Flourish

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 22 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VOYAH application proof</a>, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative. </li>
<li>Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85. </li>
</ul>


On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative. 
Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85. 


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hesai-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36743:1" rel="noopener">Hesai Group (HSAI US)</a> raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the ADS movement and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Hesai Group (HSAI US) raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. 
In this note, we talk about the ADS movement and trading dynamics.


Hesai Secondary Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Correction

<ul>
<li>
 LiDAR TAM is underestimated - Current consensus misses the true size. Our work suggests 2030 TAM can be 70–120% higher than implied; Hesai best positioned as the market leader.</li>
<li>Three Sub-segments Key -China LiDAR penetration reaching 60% penetration, Global ex-China ADAS (and LiDAR) adoption accelerating to 25–35%, and Robotics (logistics, humanoids, appliances) building upto $60bn market by 2030.</li>
<li>Though the use-cases and upside for the sector can be far beyond current estimates, the industry faces a significant technology risk and the jury is still out.</li>
</ul>



 LiDAR TAM is underestimated - Current consensus misses the true size. Our work suggests 2030 TAM can be 70–120% higher than implied; Hesai best positioned as the market leader.
Three Sub-segments Key -China LiDAR penetration reaching 60% penetration, Global ex-China ADAS (and LiDAR) adoption accelerating to 25–35%, and Robotics (logistics, humanoids, appliances) building upto $60bn market by 2030.
Though the use-cases and upside for the sector can be far beyond current estimates, the industry faces a significant technology risk and the jury is still out.


Hesai Secondary HK Offering: What Is LiDAR’s Real TAM? Big Upside, One Big Risk.

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

RoboSense Technology (2498.HK) – LiDAR Tech Challenger - Execution Reset, 2026e Recovery in Focus

LiDAR adoption accelerating with Robosense Technology poised for recovery and long-term growth potential in expanding global market through 2030.

Raj S, CA, CFA

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly- Below September's BABA Exuberance Biotech Continued to Flourish

Southbound net buying hits record high in September at $24.2bn, with Alibaba leading the way. Investors favor biotech companies in H2'25, while...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are...

Arun George

Hesai Secondary Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Correction

Hesai Group (HSAI US) raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Hesai Secondary HK Offering: What Is LiDAR’s Real TAM? Big Upside, One Big Risk.

Hesai Secondary Listing: LiDAR market potential underestimated, 2030 TAM could be 70-120% higher. Hesai poised as leader. Apart from China, global...

Raj S, CA, CFA

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RoboSense Technology (2498.HK) – LiDAR Tech Challenger - Execution Reset, 2026e Recovery in Focus

​LiDAR adoption accelerating with Robosense Technology poised for recovery and long-term growth potential in expanding global market through 2030.

Raj S, CA, CFA

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly- Below September's BABA Exuberance Biotech Continued to Flourish

​Southbound net buying hits record high in September at $24.2bn, with Alibaba leading the way. Investors favor biotech companies in H2'25, while...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are...

Arun George

Hesai Secondary Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Correction

Hesai Group (HSAI US) raised around US$530m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Hesai Secondary HK Offering: What Is LiDAR’s Real TAM? Big Upside, One Big Risk.

Hesai Secondary Listing: ​LiDAR market potential underestimated, 2030 TAM could be 70-120% higher. Hesai poised as leader. Apart from China, global...

Raj S, CA, CFA

LiDAR adoption accelerating with Robosense Technology poised for recovery and long-term growth potential in expanding global market through 2030.

Southbound net buying hits record high in September at $24.2bn, with Alibaba leading the way. Investors favor biotech companies in H2'25, while...

Hesai Secondary Listing: LiDAR market potential underestimated, 2030 TAM could be 70-120% higher. Hesai poised as leader. Apart from China, global...