Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After seeing Trial acquire Seiyu, Chubu-based supermarket group, Valor, has announced it will expand into other regions too, accelerating its plans by two years. </li>
<li>It hopes to take advantage of the current disruption happening in the supermarket sector.</li>
<li>First stop will be Kansai which is ripe for disruption given the poor competitive positioning of the incumbents.</li>
</ul>


After seeing Trial acquire Seiyu, Chubu-based supermarket group, Valor, has announced it will expand into other regions too, accelerating its plans by two years. 
It hopes to take advantage of the current disruption happening in the supermarket sector.
First stop will be Kansai which is ripe for disruption given the poor competitive positioning of the incumbents.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025</li>
<li>But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.</li>
<li>More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.</li>
</ul>


OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025
But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.
More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.


OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

<ul>
<li>Rakuten still gets a lot of flak for its mobile business but its core e-commerce operation continues to improve.</li>
<li>Rakuten will launch Rakuten Mart this month,  an online supermarket but with Rakuten Ichiba vendors too.</li>
<li>Online food retailing is becoming a major source of competition with Amazon, Aeon and Seven &amp; I all investing heavily but Rakuten is holding its own.</li>
</ul>


Rakuten still gets a lot of flak for its mobile business but its core e-commerce operation continues to improve.
Rakuten will launch Rakuten Mart this month,  an online supermarket but with Rakuten Ichiba vendors too.
Online food retailing is becoming a major source of competition with Amazon, Aeon and Seven &amp; I all investing heavily but Rakuten is holding its own.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores in Japan that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price (EDLP) model.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.
TH operates a network of retail stores in Japan that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price (EDLP) model.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

<ul>
<li>There has been a long-term trend of market concentration in Japan's retail sector for more than a decade.</li>
<li>But consolidation is accelerating due to the pressures to find growth in a depopulating market and the winner takes all phenomenon which rewards the leading chains.</li>
<li>With higher growth and greater access to capital for the best retailers, the net result is dramatically higher levels of M&amp;A in sectors like drugstores and even supermarkets.  </li>
</ul>


There has been a long-term trend of market concentration in Japan's retail sector for more than a decade.
But consolidation is accelerating due to the pressures to find growth in a depopulating market and the winner takes all phenomenon which rewards the leading chains.
With higher growth and greater access to capital for the best retailers, the net result is dramatically higher levels of M&amp;A in sectors like drugstores and even supermarkets.  


Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

Japan

LIFE CORPORATION operates a supermarket chain mainly in Kansai and Kanto areas. The Company sells mainly groceries, and also clothing, and household utensils.

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Life Corp (8194 JP)

Valor Responds to Trial-Seiyu Threat

Valor, a Chubu-based supermarket group, accelerates expansion plans after Trial acquires Seiyu, targeting Kansai region for disruption in the...

Michael Causton

OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Michael Causton

Rakuten Mart Launching This Month

Despite criticism of its mobile business, Rakuten's core e-commerce operation is thriving and set to launch Rakuten Mart, an online supermarket,...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon which will release a large number of small...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Valor Responds to Trial-Seiyu Threat

​Valor, a Chubu-based supermarket group, accelerates expansion plans after Trial acquires Seiyu, targeting Kansai region for disruption in the...

Michael Causton

OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

​OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Michael Causton

Rakuten Mart Launching This Month

​Despite criticism of its mobile business, Rakuten's core e-commerce operation is thriving and set to launch Rakuten Mart, an online supermarket,...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon which will release a large number of small...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

​Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...

Michael Causton

Valor, a Chubu-based supermarket group, accelerates expansion plans after Trial acquires Seiyu, targeting Kansai region for disruption in the...

OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Despite criticism of its mobile business, Rakuten's core e-commerce operation is thriving and set to launch Rakuten Mart, an online supermarket,...

Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...