Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Longfor's H1/23 results were weaker than expected, with y-o-y declines of 35% in overall revenue to CNY 65 bn and 40% in revenue from property development to CNY 50 bn. That said, recurring income rose 10.4% to CNY 12.2 bn, which is becoming a meaningful annuity-like cash flow. This will be helpful in underpinning Longfor's financial risk profile should there be a prolonged downturn in the property sector. The company appears to have healthy access to bank funding, and should have sufficient liquidity to meet near-term debt maturities. That said, we highlight the risk of a potential reduction in the liquidity buffer, due to weak contracted sales and higher ST debt. Longfor recorded contracted sales of only CNY 7.6 bn in July 2023, compared to an average of CNY 11 bn per month in H1. ST debt surged 75% to c. CNY 39 bn, from c. CNY 22 bn at FYE 2022. We maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the LNGFOR curve. The various notes appear to offer good value at current yields of 15-21%. That said, market technicals are very poor for private developers, with even the bonds of solid names such as Longfor experiencing volatility.

  Longfor's H1/23 results were weaker than expected, with y-o-y declines of 35% in overall revenue to CNY 65 bn and 40% in revenue from property development to CNY 50 bn. That said, recurring income rose 10.4% to CNY 12.2 bn, which is becoming a meaningful annuity-like cash flow. This will be helpful in underpinning Longfor's financial risk profile should there be a prolonged downturn in the property sector.   The company appears to have healthy access to bank funding, and should have sufficient liquidity to meet near-term debt maturities. That said, we highlight the risk of a potential reduction in the liquidity buffer, due to weak contracted sales and higher ST debt. Longfor recorded contracted sales of only CNY 7.6 bn in July 2023, compared to an average of CNY 11 bn per month in H1. ST debt surged 75% to c. CNY 39 bn, from c. CNY 22 bn at FYE 2022.   We maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the LNGFOR curve. The various notes appear to offer good value at current yields of 15-21%. That said, market technicals are very poor for private developers, with even the bonds of solid names such as Longfor experiencing volatility. 

Longfor Group - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Samvardhana Motherson</li>
<li>The US and China have agreed to significantly roll back tariffs for 90 days, in a major but temporary de-escalation of trade tensions. The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% (comprising a 10% reciprocal tariff and 20% tariffs related to fentanyl imposed in February and March) by May 14th, while China will reduce its levies on American imports to 10% (from 125%).</li>
<li>The two countries also agreed to establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations, led by Chinese VicePremier He Lifeng, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to a joint statement published by the White House. US President Donald Trump said that China will also “suspend and remove all non-monetary barriers”, but offered no specific details.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Samvardhana Motherson
The US and China have agreed to significantly roll back tariffs for 90 days, in a major but temporary de-escalation of trade tensions. The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% (comprising a 10% reciprocal tariff and 20% tariffs related to fentanyl imposed in February and March) by May 14th, while China will reduce its levies on American imports to 10% (from 125%).
The two countries also agreed to establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations, led by Chinese VicePremier He Lifeng, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to a joint statement published by the White House. US President Donald Trump said that China will also “suspend and remove all non-monetary barriers”, but offered no specific details.


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Sunny Optical, Greentown China</li>
<li>
In the US, the March CPI came in below estimates at negative 0.1% m-o-m (0.1% e / 0.2% p) and 2.4% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.8% p). This was driven by lower energy costs, as well as a decline in discretionary spending such as airfares, used vehicles and hotels. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) slowed to 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p) and 2.8% y-o-y (3.0% e / 3.1% p).
</li>
<li>
The White House has clarified that US President Donald Trump's total tariffs on Chinese imports stands at 145%, comprising a 125% reciprocal tariff rate on top of the existing 20% duty imposed earlier in February and March.
</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Sunny Optical, Greentown China

In the US, the March CPI came in below estimates at negative 0.1% m-o-m (0.1% e / 0.2% p) and 2.4% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.8% p). This was driven by lower energy costs, as well as a decline in discretionary spending such as airfares, used vehicles and hotels. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) slowed to 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p) and 2.8% y-o-y (3.0% e / 3.1% p).


The White House has clarified that US President Donald Trump's total tariffs on Chinese imports stands at 145%, comprising a 125% reciprocal tariff rate on top of the existing 20% duty imposed earlier in February and March.



<ul>
<li>Longfor Group's FY 2024 results were acceptable.</li>
<li>The earnings decline was in line with expectations, driven by lower revenues and margins from the property development segment.</li>
<li>We project that Longfor's contracted sales will continue declining in FY 2025, given the company's slowdown in land bank replenishment.</li>
</ul>


Longfor Group's FY 2024 results were acceptable.
The earnings decline was in line with expectations, driven by lower revenues and margins from the property development segment.
We project that Longfor's contracted sales will continue declining in FY 2025, given the company's slowdown in land bank replenishment.


Longfor Group - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Melco Resorts, Sands China, Tata Motors</li>
<li>
In the US, February nonfarm payrolls increased to 151 k (160 k e / 125 k revised p), albeit the figure came in slightly below estimates. Moreover, the January number was revised downwards to 125 k (143 k p), with the two-month revision at negative 2 k (+100 k p). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% (4.0% e / 4.0% p). The average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% revised p) and 4.0% y-o-y (4.1% e / 3.9% revised p).
</li>
<li>
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that the US central bank is in no rush to reduce rates. He said: “Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the US economy continues to be in a good place”, adding that “sentiment readings have not been a good predictor of consumption growth in recent years”.
</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Melco Resorts, Sands China, Tata Motors

In the US, February nonfarm payrolls increased to 151 k (160 k e / 125 k revised p), albeit the figure came in slightly below estimates. Moreover, the January number was revised downwards to 125 k (143 k p), with the two-month revision at negative 2 k (+100 k p). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% (4.0% e / 4.0% p). The average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% revised p) and 4.0% y-o-y (4.1% e / 3.9% revised p).


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that the US central bank is in no rush to reduce rates. He said: “Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the US economy continues to be in a good place”, adding that “sentiment readings have not been a good predictor of consumption growth in recent years”.



China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

Longfor Group - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Longfor's H1/23 results were weaker than expected, with y-o-y declines of 35% in overall revenue to CNY 65 bn and 40% in revenue from property...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Samvardhana Motherson

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Sunny Optical, Greentown China

Lucror Analytics

Longfor Group - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results

We project that Longfor's contracted sales will continue declining in FY 2025, given the company's slowdown in land bank replenishment.

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Melco Resorts, Sands China,...

Lucror Analytics

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