Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy</li>
<li>UST yields were broadly stable yesterday. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.91%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.45%. Equities rallied, following the release of strong retail sales data. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5% to a new high of 6,297, while the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 20,886.</li>
<li>Several Fed officials spoke yesterday. New York Fed President John Williams said it is “entirely appropriate” to maintain the current modestly restrictive monetary policy stance, as he expects inflation to increase in the coming months. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said that he still supports holding interest rates steady, stating that inflation may be at an “inflection point” after several months of soft price increases.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy
UST yields were broadly stable yesterday. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.91%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.45%. Equities rallied, following the release of strong retail sales data. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5% to a new high of 6,297, while the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 20,886.
Several Fed officials spoke yesterday. New York Fed President John Williams said it is “entirely appropriate” to maintain the current modestly restrictive monetary policy stance, as he expects inflation to increase in the coming months. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said that he still supports holding interest rates steady, stating that inflation may be at an “inflection point” after several months of soft price increases.


<ul>
<li>US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 4.02%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.47%.</li>
<li>Equities climbed for the third straight day, supported by optimism over US-China trade talks.</li>
</ul>


US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 4.02%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.47%.
Equities climbed for the third straight day, supported by optimism over US-China trade talks.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.</li>
<li>Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. </li>
<li>Among them, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> look well-positioned to catch up.</li>
</ul>


The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.
Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. 
Among them, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK) look well-positioned to catch up.


HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We reiterate our view of overweighting high quality names among Property &amp; PM sector given that 1) Shenzhen/Suzhou further relaxed home purchase policies which further proved regulators’ determination in upholding the market confidence in our view</li><li>2) we think there is ample room for fine-tuning in tier-1 cities (Figure 1)</li><li>3) property transaction data are robust </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We reiterate our view of overweighting high quality names among Property &amp; PM sector given that 1) Shenzhen/Suzhou further relaxed home purchase policies which further proved regulators’ determination in upholding the market confidence in our view2) we think there is ample room for fine-tuning in tier-1 cities (Figure 1)3) property transaction data are robust Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - City-Level Relaxation Came Earlier...

China

Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, investment property operation, and services. It develops and sells residential, office, and commercial properties, and leases shopping malls and rental housing. The company also provides property management, hotel operation, commercial investment, and smart construction services. Longfor Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Longfor (960 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2...

Lucror Analytics

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

This note is a weekly (Apr 11-17, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Property - City-Level Relaxation Came Earlier...

Shenzhen made another move on policy relaxation including 1) lowering CPF down payment ratio from 30% to 20% for 2nd home buyers

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2...

Lucror Analytics

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

​HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

This note is a weekly (Apr 11-17, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Property - City-Level Relaxation Came Earlier...

Shenzhen made another move on policy relaxation including 1) lowering CPF down payment ratio from 30% to 20% for 2nd home buyers

CMB International

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...