Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

Walmart’s 18-year attempt to build a business in Japan ended last month when the US retailer announced it would sell 85% of its stake in Seiyu to KKR and Rakuten.Seiyu has been transformed under Walmart’s leadership although it is much smaller than when Walmart arrived.Now, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> taking over, the hope is Seiyu could re-emerge as a leader in food e-commerce under Rakuten.The Seiyu chain could transform Rakuten’s logistics capability, allowing it to offer a comprehensive click &amp; collect service as well as use redundant store space for dark store fulfilment.What the new partners cannot afford to do is dither. Japan may well have room for more than one major online food retailer but just a couple of leaders will command the lion’s share.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>’s partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>’s Lohaco, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a>, and, at some point, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)/</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ocado-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22067:1" rel="noopener">Ocado Group PLC (OCDO LN)</a> are the ones to beat.Already the deal is causing a significant upset in supermarket and GMS retailing.

Walmart’s 18-year attempt to build a business in Japan ended last month when the US retailer announced it would sell 85% of its stake in Seiyu to KKR and Rakuten.Seiyu has been transformed under Walmart’s leadership although it is much smaller than when Walmart arrived.Now, with KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US) and Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) taking over, the hope is Seiyu could re-emerge as a leader in food e-commerce under Rakuten.The Seiyu chain could transform Rakuten’s logistics capability, allowing it to offer a comprehensive click &amp; collect service as well as use redundant store space for dark store fulfilment.What the new partners cannot afford to do is dither. Japan may well have room for more than one major online food retailer but just a couple of leaders will command the lion’s share.  Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)’s partnership with Life Corp (8194 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP)’s Lohaco, Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP), and, at some point, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)/Ocado Group PLC (OCDO LN) are the ones to beat.Already the deal is causing a significant upset in supermarket and GMS retailing.

KKR & Rakuten Ignite Online Food Battle with Seiyu Purchase

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

About ten weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> wrote about the likelihood that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sre-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29672:1" rel="noopener">SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP)</a> would move to the TSE's First Section in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-event-trade-2980-jp-sre-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43530" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event Trade (2980 JP): SRE Holdings</a> which pretty much explained the case in its title, and suggested that it was a likely candidate to move when it reached its 1-year anniversary of listing. Janaghan's analysis on SRE was based on his analysis of TOPIX Inclusion bets in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-recent-tachiaigai-bunbai-round-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40509" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Recent "Tachiaigai Bunbai" Round-Up</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/historical-topix-inclusions-what-flavor-performs-best" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39523" rel="noopener">Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  What Flavor Performs Best?</a>). His more recent work developed since the TSE1 Listing Rules changed last month is available in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusions-new-regulations-who-is-ready-2-0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45783" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0</a>.Indeed, SRE was his top pick:<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/339/original/Screenshot%202020-12-14%20at%207.14.20%20PM.png?1607944479" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178339"></figure></section>Today after market close, SRE announced (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/2980/tdnet/1912909/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) they had received approval to move from TSE MOTHERS to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 23rd December 2020 - two trading days after the end of the above-mentioned 1-year post-IPO waiting period. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 28th January 2021. They also announced a small offering which can be ignored.In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the offering to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event. It is, for those of you who follow the Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion Framework, a GREEN, but it is really just across the border from BLUE which is still OK.

About ten weeks ago, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA wrote about the likelihood that SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) would move to the TSE's First Section in TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event Trade (2980 JP): SRE Holdings which pretty much explained the case in its title, and suggested that it was a likely candidate to move when it reached its 1-year anniversary of listing. Janaghan's analysis on SRE was based on his analysis of TOPIX Inclusion bets in TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Recent "Tachiaigai Bunbai" Round-Up and Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  What Flavor Performs Best?). His more recent work developed since the TSE1 Listing Rules changed last month is available in TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0.Indeed, SRE was his top pick:Today after market close, SRE announced (J-only) they had received approval to move from TSE MOTHERS to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 23rd December 2020 - two trading days after the end of the above-mentioned 1-year post-IPO waiting period. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 28th January 2021. They also announced a small offering which can be ignored.In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the offering to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event. It is, for those of you who follow the Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion Framework, a GREEN, but it is really just across the border from BLUE which is still OK. 

SRE (2980) TOPIX Inclusion Announced. It's GREEN!

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>’s growth has quickly returned to its decelerating trend post-lockdowns and we believe this will become more evident from 3Q FY03/21 when the impact of the stay-at-home demand further subsides. The underlying reasons for this collapsing growth such as, the saturation of the under-25 segment, weak penetration among the middle-aged demographic, and falling average price levels, does not seem to be improving, hence, we believe ZOZO’s consignment business growth should not be much higher than the overall online fashion market growth of 5%-10% going forward.In the meantime, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding ZOZO’s longer-term growth drivers such as the new ZOZOSUIT 2 and the private label business which are still in their experimental phase. ZOZO is already down 20% from early October, however, we believe a further correction is required to justify ZOZO’s single-digit growth in the medium-term, until the new initiatives start making meaningful contributions to the results.

ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)’s growth has quickly returned to its decelerating trend post-lockdowns and we believe this will become more evident from 3Q FY03/21 when the impact of the stay-at-home demand further subsides. The underlying reasons for this collapsing growth such as, the saturation of the under-25 segment, weak penetration among the middle-aged demographic, and falling average price levels, does not seem to be improving, hence, we believe ZOZO’s consignment business growth should not be much higher than the overall online fashion market growth of 5%-10% going forward.In the meantime, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding ZOZO’s longer-term growth drivers such as the new ZOZOSUIT 2 and the private label business which are still in their experimental phase. ZOZO is already down 20% from early October, however, we believe a further correction is required to justify ZOZO’s single-digit growth in the medium-term, until the new initiatives start making meaningful contributions to the results.

2021 High Conviction: ZOZO – Good Times Are Zo Far Away

Quantitative Analysis

Long-time Japan strategist Jonathan Allum, most recently of SMBC Nikko, put a guest post titled <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a97cf336-518d-45dd-8092-ec0363c18725" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Takeaways from 30 years of Covering the Japanese Market</a> in the Financial Times on 26 November (Thanksgiving) which is well worth a read.He points out that foreign investors in 2020 are likely going to be net dis-investors in Japan for the fourth year in five, fifth year in six, and increasing the net selldown which has occurred since the monster year in 2013. <section class="figure"><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/956/original/Screenshot%202020-11-29%20at%203.07.23%20PM.png?1606633655" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174956"></figure></section>This data is compiled from the weekly data which shows each investor category. On a net basis across all investor categories, it will be flat because while it shows buybacks on market, crediting the "Business Corporations" category, it does not show the data of investors selling into Tender Offers or the data of investors buying from IPOs.</section>Of course, the data is not that clean because investing doesn't always happen according to calendar year decisions. 
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/969/original/Screenshot%202020-11-29%20at%203.40.57%20PM.png?1606635676" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174969"></figure></section>It just so happens that the last two really big selloffs in dollar terms (both exceeding ¥6trln on a rolling 52wk basis) did not happen to see start and end points coincide with those of the Gregorian calendar.
There has been an interesting confluence of "lack of participation in the market" this year. After lifting ETF buys in March 2020, the BOJ has slowed down its ETF buying considerably in the past six months (the current 6-month total is near the lower end of the range seen in the past four years), buybacks are down this year as companies slowed their activity in the face of covid-19-induced uncertainty, and foreigners are net sellers. 
Of course Japanese insurers are on the verge of extending what will be a 12-year streak of net sells to a 13th year, and it looks like Japanese banks will be extending their net selling to a 14th year in a row. Trust Banks will be net buyers for the sixth year in seven this year, but for at least the fourth year in a row it will be less than the net buying of ETFs by the BOJ so ex-BOJ trust banks will have been net sellers for several years. 
Business corporations are up ¥1.335trln year-to-date through the 20th of November, and will almost certainly extend their streak to ten years on the buy side. The interesting net flow this year is the "Proprietary" flow at brokers. This is now positive for ten years in a row, and there are particular reasons for this, as discussed below.
Because of the noise around recent articles about the BOJ and foreign activity, I decided to once again dust off the long-term analytics on Japan investor class flows, and present them here. Because flows net off to close to zero (i.e. there are a certain number of shares, and if some investor class is a net seller, other investor classes must be net buyer(s)), deriving a model for behavior is useful.  Long ago, in roles in fixed income and equity derivatives strategy, I built models of net foreign buying, and they uniformly showed that foreign investors chase/push/drive performance. My final model is a multi-input model which provides a simple combination of two factors they chase.
This insight discusses those behavior models, investor class flow dynamics, cycles, and trends and pressures near-term.
The combination of the investor class flows, and the model which drives net foreign activity, is interesting. I think it helps because the top-down aspect matters for understanding allocation flow.
Read on for the nitty gritty (as usual, we start with Conclusions First).</section>

Long-time Japan strategist Jonathan Allum, most recently of SMBC Nikko, put a guest post titled Takeaways from 30 years of Covering the Japanese Market in the Financial Times on 26 November (Thanksgiving) which is well worth a read.He points out that foreign investors in 2020 are likely going to be net dis-investors in Japan for the fourth year in five, fifth year in six, and increasing the net selldown which has occurred since the monster year in 2013. This data is compiled from the weekly data which shows each investor category. On a net basis across all investor categories, it will be flat because while it shows buybacks on market, crediting the "Business Corporations" category, it does not show the data of investors selling into Tender Offers or the data of investors buying from IPOs.Of course, the data is not that clean because investing doesn't always happen according to calendar year decisions. 
It just so happens that the last two really big selloffs in dollar terms (both exceeding ¥6trln on a rolling 52wk basis) did not happen to see start and end points coincide with those of the Gregorian calendar.
There has been an interesting confluence of "lack of participation in the market" this year. After lifting ETF buys in March 2020, the BOJ has slowed down its ETF buying considerably in the past six months (the current 6-month total is near the lower end of the range seen in the past four years), buybacks are down this year as companies slowed their activity in the face of covid-19-induced uncertainty, and foreigners are net sellers. 
Of course Japanese insurers are on the verge of extending what will be a 12-year streak of net sells to a 13th year, and it looks like Japanese banks will be extending their net selling to a 14th year in a row. Trust Banks will be net buyers for the sixth year in seven this year, but for at least the fourth year in a row it will be less than the net buying of ETFs by the BOJ so ex-BOJ trust banks will have been net sellers for several years. 
Business corporations are up ¥1.335trln year-to-date through the 20th of November, and will almost certainly extend their streak to ten years on the buy side. The interesting net flow this year is the "Proprietary" flow at brokers. This is now positive for ten years in a row, and there are particular reasons for this, as discussed below.
Because of the noise around recent articles about the BOJ and foreign activity, I decided to once again dust off the long-term analytics on Japan investor class flows, and present them here. Because flows net off to close to zero (i.e. there are a certain number of shares, and if some investor class is a net seller, other investor classes must be net buyer(s)), deriving a model for behavior is useful.  Long ago, in roles in fixed income and equity derivatives strategy, I built models of net foreign buying, and they uniformly showed that foreign investors chase/push/drive performance. My final model is a multi-input model which provides a simple combination of two factors they chase.
This insight discusses those behavior models, investor class flow dynamics, cycles, and trends and pressures near-term.
The combination of the investor class flows, and the model which drives net foreign activity, is interesting. I think it helps because the top-down aspect matters for understanding allocation flow.
Read on for the nitty gritty (as usual, we start with Conclusions First).

JAPAN FLOW:  Foreign Investor Flows Still Matter (Redux, Reduxed) - Playing Catchup

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

There are currently ~1,500 stocks listed in the Mothers, JASDAQ, and Second Sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As time passes, some of these stocks will "graduate" to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE1), triggering inclusion into the TOPIX Index causing passive funds tracking TOPIX to buy them on an inclusion event. This presents various trading opportunities in several phases of this event timeline.  Being able to identify such candidates at a "Pre-event" phase (before the TSE reassignment is confirmed) can unlock great value for speculative bets as we recently witnessed in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-4931-jp-shinnihonseiyaku" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45660" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion (4931 JP): Shinnihonseiyaku</a> where the stock gained 90%+ in the ~5 months leading to the TSE1-reassignment announcement. However, in July 2020, TSE introduced more stringent new Section Transfer Requirements and TSE1 Listing Criteria adding a new layer of complexity to this prediction process, especially during the period of transition from the old rules to the new rules. In this insight, we take a look at how some of the potential TSE1 candidates will fare against these New Section Transfer Requirements and evaluate their attractiveness at the Pre-event phase. <hr><div class="content-remarks">This insight is an update to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-who-is-ready" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41091" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Who Is Ready?</a>. Please refer to that insight for more information on the approach used in the below analysis. Note that some assumptions used in the analysis have changed since then. </div>

There are currently ~1,500 stocks listed in the Mothers, JASDAQ, and Second Sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As time passes, some of these stocks will "graduate" to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE1), triggering inclusion into the TOPIX Index causing passive funds tracking TOPIX to buy them on an inclusion event. This presents various trading opportunities in several phases of this event timeline.  Being able to identify such candidates at a "Pre-event" phase (before the TSE reassignment is confirmed) can unlock great value for speculative bets as we recently witnessed in the case of TOPIX Inclusion (4931 JP): Shinnihonseiyaku where the stock gained 90%+ in the ~5 months leading to the TSE1-reassignment announcement. However, in July 2020, TSE introduced more stringent new Section Transfer Requirements and TSE1 Listing Criteria adding a new layer of complexity to this prediction process, especially during the period of transition from the old rules to the new rules. In this insight, we take a look at how some of the potential TSE1 candidates will fare against these New Section Transfer Requirements and evaluate their attractiveness at the Pre-event phase. This insight is an update to TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Who Is Ready?. Please refer to that insight for more information on the approach used in the below analysis. Note that some assumptions used in the analysis have changed since then. 

TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

KKR & Rakuten Ignite Online Food Battle with Seiyu Purchase

E-commerce has less than 3% share of Japanese food retailing. This will change dramatically in the next 3 years, led by Amazon but also by Rakuten...

Michael Causton

SRE (2980) TOPIX Inclusion Announced. It's GREEN!

SRE (2980) is going into TOPIX. Credit Janaghan Jeyakumar for the call. This is a GREEN inclusion - about 10 days of ADV and the company is a...

Travis Lundy

2021 High Conviction: ZOZO – Good Times Are Zo Far Away

ZOZO is already down 20% from early October, however, we believe a further correction is required to justify ZOZO’s single-digit growth in the...

Supun Walpola

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Flows Still Matter (Redux, Reduxed) - Playing Catchup

The Japanese market has unusual flow cyclicality. Foreigners take price. They have been net sellers. They buy when USD-denom TOPIX outperforms....

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Inclusions: New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0

The TSE has new Listing Rules and Criteria for TSE1 listing and promotion. That means new analysis on what pre-event trades. One TOP PICK to trade...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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