Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Zozo’s new business model as a brand producer was off to a strong start last month with most of the new 18 private brands selling out.</p>
<p>The online platform also re-launched the Zozosuit, suggesting a revival of the Zozo brand may be on the cards.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> needs these new initiatives if it is to successfully transition to becoming a still distinctive but much more volume-based mall, a medium-term project that should lead to improving growth rates and profitability.</p>

Zozo’s new business model as a brand producer was off to a strong start last month with most of the new 18 private brands selling out.
The online platform also re-launched the Zozosuit, suggesting a revival of the Zozo brand may be on the cards.
ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) needs these new initiatives if it is to successfully transition to becoming a still distinctive but much more volume-based mall, a medium-term project that should lead to improving growth rates and profitability.

<p>Seven &amp; I had a dismal first half at almost all of its chains. On the plus side, e-commerce sales improved but, even here, results could have been better when compared to what some rivals have achieved online. At least Nissen, the acquired catalogue company, finally returned to profit.</p>

Seven &amp; I had a dismal first half at almost all of its chains. On the plus side, e-commerce sales improved but, even here, results could have been better when compared to what some rivals have achieved online. At least Nissen, the acquired catalogue company, finally returned to profit.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Rakuten’s 3Q FY20 financial results did not carry any major surprises. We continue to prefer Rakuten among other Japanese e-commerce names, as we believe its strategy of improving monetisation of its existing users and increasing penetration into untapped markets through logistics expansion, better suits the maturing Japanese e-commerce market.</p><p>We believe Rakuten, excluding its mobile and logistics businesses, is undervalued, however, we do not see any short term catalysts that would drive Rakuten’s share price up, especially as we expect Rakuten to continue making operating losses in the next two years as the company continues to invest heavily on its mobile and logistics operations. However, we like Rakuten for its long-term potential and expect further upside once investments in mobile and logistics operations start making meaningful contributions.  </p>

Rakuten’s 3Q FY20 financial results did not carry any major surprises. We continue to prefer Rakuten among other Japanese e-commerce names, as we believe its strategy of improving monetisation of its existing users and increasing penetration into untapped markets through logistics expansion, better suits the maturing Japanese e-commerce market.We believe Rakuten, excluding its mobile and logistics businesses, is undervalued, however, we do not see any short term catalysts that would drive Rakuten’s share price up, especially as we expect Rakuten to continue making operating losses in the next two years as the company continues to invest heavily on its mobile and logistics operations. However, we like Rakuten for its long-term potential and expect further upside once investments in mobile and logistics operations start making meaningful contributions.  

Rakuten: E-Commerce Monetisation Is Improving, Logistics and Mobile Losses Aside

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<p>Rakuten posted Q3 results that missed on profitability as the company ramped up spending on mobile to expand network coverage. With surveys of existing mobile users that show high marks for cost performance and simplicity but much less enthusiasm for network quality, this is what Rakuten needs to do to be competitive. Management said they are confident on progress towards profitability but this month’s monetization of its stake in Lyft and the sale of subordinated bonds indicate losses are going to continue for now. Results from the core eCommerce and Fintech segments were steady but not surprising as growth in the former moderated as Japan returned to normal whilst robust online trading boosted the latter as it did last quarter.  </p>

Rakuten posted Q3 results that missed on profitability as the company ramped up spending on mobile to expand network coverage. With surveys of existing mobile users that show high marks for cost performance and simplicity but much less enthusiasm for network quality, this is what Rakuten needs to do to be competitive. Management said they are confident on progress towards profitability but this month’s monetization of its stake in Lyft and the sale of subordinated bonds indicate losses are going to continue for now. Results from the core eCommerce and Fintech segments were steady but not surprising as growth in the former moderated as Japan returned to normal whilst robust online trading boosted the latter as it did last quarter.  

Rakuten - Q3 20 Results: Record Mobile Losses Are Unlikely to Ease Soon

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

<p>On 29 September 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> announced it would buy out minorities of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> in a $40 billion buyout - the biggest Tender Offer Japan had ever seen. </p><p>As it was financed with debt, that constituted the single biggest "stock buyback" that NTT could possibly have executed. Normally, NTT buys back ¥200-350bn of <em>stock</em> per year. With this buyout bought ¥200+bn of <em>net income</em> per year. </p><p>This came on top of previous statements by the CEO of NTT that the company would seek to sell and securitize trillions of yen of assets and return capital to shareholders. </p><p>Shockingly NTT shares fell on the news of the buyout. I could not fathom why. They may have overpaid what they needed to pay to get it done, but it was going to get done. They were going to pay ¥4trln of debt, <em>and zero equity</em>, to get ¥210-250bn in net income and ¥400bn+ of operating cashflow, presumably for a very long time, in exchange for a relatively low interest rate payment.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/695/original/Screenshot%202020-11-06%20at%202.31.50%20PM.png?1604644954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169695"></figure></section><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Several people contacted me when this was announced and asked whether I was worried about NTT being too indebted. </p>
<p>My blunt answer to them was that I was not at all worried. This was, in effect, a MAMMOTH BUYBACK and NTT had real estate assets, tower assets, and any number of other hard assets which could be sold or securitized to pay down debt and there was no chance that NTT was going to issue equity. The simple reason why there would be no equity top up was and is that the NTT Law requires that the government hold one-third* of the shares outstanding of NTT and there is no chance that the government is going to be convinced to buy more shares of NTT to maintain their stake. This was pure leverage and pure net income to NTT shareholders. </p>
</div><div class="content-remarks"><p>* It's a little complicated because there is some weirdness where IPO shares are excluded from the calculation, but it comes VERY close to one-third in practical terms.</p></div><h3>The NEW News</h3><p>On Friday 6 November NTT released Q2 earnings. They will not overwhelm anyone and there wasn't much talk about what the plans are for synergies at NTT Docomo, but I think that has to be expected because the Tender Offer, while a foregone conclusion in terms of rights, is not even over yet.</p><p>However I think people STILL do not look at NTT and its results the right way. What we knew Friday? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> OP in Q2 was +8.3%yoy. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> was up 9.5%yoy. What we did <em>not</em> know was that NTT ex-listed subs OP was up 4.7%yoy. That was better than expected. </p><p>NTT ex-listed subs OP has continued to grow over the years. The rolling 4Q total is the blue bars below (the red bars are the implied quarterly OP based on consensus OP annual estimates (out to March 2023) for NTT, NTT Docomo and NTT Data backing out NTT ex-listed subs).</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/726/original/Screenshot%202020-11-06%20at%205.21.56%20PM.png?1604654537" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169726"></figure><p>What was clear from the discussion that NTT led on the day of the announcement of the Tender Offer to buy in minorities of NTT Docomo was that they saw synergies, and they saw lower costs compared to what the Street was expecting. For whatever reason, as will be discussed below, Street consensus for forward years of NTT does not include all of NTT Docomo. And it seems to include no synergies.</p></section><h3>The OTHER NEW News - A Buyback</h3><p>Up to 120mm shares spending up to ¥250bn from 11 March to 31 March 2021. </p><p>THAT was unexpected. </p><p>This deserves a discussion.</p>

On 29 September 2020, NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) announced it would buy out minorities of NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) in a $40 billion buyout - the biggest Tender Offer Japan had ever seen. As it was financed with debt, that constituted the single biggest "stock buyback" that NTT could possibly have executed. Normally, NTT buys back ¥200-350bn of stock per year. With this buyout bought ¥200+bn of net income per year. This came on top of previous statements by the CEO of NTT that the company would seek to sell and securitize trillions of yen of assets and return capital to shareholders. Shockingly NTT shares fell on the news of the buyout. I could not fathom why. They may have overpaid what they needed to pay to get it done, but it was going to get done. They were going to pay ¥4trln of debt, and zero equity, to get ¥210-250bn in net income and ¥400bn+ of operating cashflow, presumably for a very long time, in exchange for a relatively low interest rate payment.
Several people contacted me when this was announced and asked whether I was worried about NTT being too indebted. 
My blunt answer to them was that I was not at all worried. This was, in effect, a MAMMOTH BUYBACK and NTT had real estate assets, tower assets, and any number of other hard assets which could be sold or securitized to pay down debt and there was no chance that NTT was going to issue equity. The simple reason why there would be no equity top up was and is that the NTT Law requires that the government hold one-third* of the shares outstanding of NTT and there is no chance that the government is going to be convinced to buy more shares of NTT to maintain their stake. This was pure leverage and pure net income to NTT shareholders. 
* It's a little complicated because there is some weirdness where IPO shares are excluded from the calculation, but it comes VERY close to one-third in practical terms.The NEW NewsOn Friday 6 November NTT released Q2 earnings. They will not overwhelm anyone and there wasn't much talk about what the plans are for synergies at NTT Docomo, but I think that has to be expected because the Tender Offer, while a foregone conclusion in terms of rights, is not even over yet.However I think people STILL do not look at NTT and its results the right way. What we knew Friday? NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) OP in Q2 was +8.3%yoy. NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) was up 9.5%yoy. What we did not know was that NTT ex-listed subs OP was up 4.7%yoy. That was better than expected. NTT ex-listed subs OP has continued to grow over the years. The rolling 4Q total is the blue bars below (the red bars are the implied quarterly OP based on consensus OP annual estimates (out to March 2023) for NTT, NTT Docomo and NTT Data backing out NTT ex-listed subs).What was clear from the discussion that NTT led on the day of the announcement of the Tender Offer to buy in minorities of NTT Docomo was that they saw synergies, and they saw lower costs compared to what the Street was expecting. For whatever reason, as will be discussed below, Street consensus for forward years of NTT does not include all of NTT Docomo. And it seems to include no synergies.The OTHER NEW News - A BuybackUp to 120mm shares spending up to ¥250bn from 11 March to 31 March 2021. THAT was unexpected. This deserves a discussion.

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

Zozo Transitions, Zozosuit Returns

Zozo continues its transition from fashion premium mall to lifestyle mall for all. This will take time but the spate of new projects are promising...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Still Floundering

Seven & I has tried and failed to gain a foothold in digital markets but looks to be retreating from online food just at a time when competitors...

Michael Causton

Rakuten: E-Commerce Monetisation Is Improving, Logistics and Mobile Losses Aside

We like Rakuten for its long-term potential and expect further upside once investments in mobile and logistics operations start making meaningful...

Supun Walpola

Rakuten - Q3 20 Results: Record Mobile Losses Are Unlikely to Ease Soon

Rakuten ramped up mobile investment in Q3 leading to higher than expected operating losses. Recent moves to raise cash indicate higher investment...

Kirk Boodry

NTT - Go Big Or Go Home

Hot on the heels of announcing a $40bn buyout of Docomo minorities - effectively a giant buyback - NTT announced a buyback of its own stock. It...

Travis Lundy

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