Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Trip.com will finally report Q2 results after the US close on Tuesday, September 15</li>
<li>Earlier investigation, now concluded, was likely a drag on growth &amp; earnings in period</li>
<li>Management commentary could indicate pace of recovery from Trip.com's latest stumble</li>
</ul>


Trip.com will finally report Q2 results after the US close on Tuesday, September 15
Earlier investigation, now concluded, was likely a drag on growth &amp; earnings in period
Management commentary could indicate pace of recovery from Trip.com's latest stumble


Trip.com Q226 Earnings Preview | Impact of Investigation | Accommodation Segment | Q3 Guidance Key

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,468/1,477 points and the support at 1,456 points (25-day EMA) and 1,447 points.</li><li>This suggests that the SET is at a relatively attractive valuation level; hence, we switch our recommendation to Trading Buy if the index moves within the range of 1,401-1461 points.</li><li>We recommend divesting laggard stocks with high equity risk premiums (ERP) in favor of selectively buying stocks with strong WoW EPS recovery momentum, causing their ERPs to accelerate above the average.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,468/1,477 points and the support at 1,456 points (25-day EMA) and 1,447 points.This suggests that the SET is at a relatively attractive valuation level; hence, we switch our recommendation to Trading Buy if the index moves within the range of 1,401-1461 points.We recommend divesting laggard stocks with high equity risk premiums (ERP) in favor of selectively buying stocks with strong WoW EPS recovery momentum, causing their ERPs to accelerate above the average.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in 1Q25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a> took ClubMed operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism</a> private at ~US$1.2bn via a Scheme: <a href="https://skr.ma/DTgVw" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)'s Scheme Buyback Vote On The 4th March</a>. </li>
<li>Fosun is now proposing to relist the unit. Word is that Fosun is seeking to raise US$500mn, with a possible listed valuation upward of US$3bn.</li>
<li>With sliding earnings, falling margins, that kind of pricing is optimistic.</li>
</ul>


Back in 1Q25, Fosun International (656 HK) took ClubMed operator Fosun Tourism private at ~US$1.2bn via a Scheme: Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)'s Scheme Buyback Vote On The 4th March. 
Fosun is now proposing to relist the unit. Word is that Fosun is seeking to raise US$500mn, with a possible listed valuation upward of US$3bn.
With sliding earnings, falling margins, that kind of pricing is optimistic.


Fosun (656 HK): ClubMed Spin-Off Won't Move The Needle

<ul>
<li>Total US border crossings in July 2026 were up just 0.6% Y/Y (and down 5% vs July 2024)</li>
<li>July 2026 crossings by aircraft were down over 3% Y/Y, and down 2% Y/Y in US West</li>
<li>The figures from peak Summer travel period seem to confirm sluggish US tourism activity</li>
</ul>


Total US border crossings in July 2026 were up just 0.6% Y/Y (and down 5% vs July 2024)
July 2026 crossings by aircraft were down over 3% Y/Y, and down 2% Y/Y in US West
The figures from peak Summer travel period seem to confirm sluggish US tourism activity


Latest US Customs & Border Protection Data Appear to Confirm Sluggish US Tourism Activity

United States

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

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Marriott International (MAR US)

Trip.com Q226 Earnings Preview | Impact of Investigation | Accommodation Segment | Q3 Guidance Key

Trip.com will finally report Q2 results on Tuesday evening (US time). Expectations for Q2 are low but forward guidance could indicate how quickly...

Tracking Traffic

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

EU Mfg. PMI & Weekly Strategy

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,468/1,477 points and the support at 1,456 points (25-day EMA)...

Krungthai XSpring

Fosun (656 HK): ClubMed Spin-Off Won't Move The Needle

At 0.38x P/B, Fosun is not expensive. The five-year average P/B is 0.3x. Spinning off the ClubMed unit won't narrow the discount to book. I might...

David Blennerhassett

Latest US Customs & Border Protection Data Appear to Confirm Sluggish US Tourism Activity

The latest figures for US border crossings suggest international travel into and out of the US remains sluggish. The figures show little growth...

Tracking Traffic

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