HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lung-fung-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46142:1" rel="noopener">Lung Fung Group (2290 HK)</a> is still 37.3% below its IPO price, despite a sharp rebound following its better-than-expected FY26 results. </li>
<li>Its same-store sales have consistently outperformed, and the start for 1Q FY27 appears encouraging. With an ROE of 72.7% for FY27, its 1.9x P/B is undemanding. </li>
<li>At a 4.8x FY27F PER and a 12.6% dividend yield, the stock is extremely cheap and trades at a steep discount to its HK-listed peers. </li>
</ul>



Lung Fung Group (2290 HK) is still 37.3% below its IPO price, despite a sharp rebound following its better-than-expected FY26 results. 
Its same-store sales have consistently outperformed, and the start for 1Q FY27 appears encouraging. With an ROE of 72.7% for FY27, its 1.9x P/B is undemanding. 
At a 4.8x FY27F PER and a 12.6% dividend yield, the stock is extremely cheap and trades at a steep discount to its HK-listed peers. 


Lung Fung Group (2290 HK): Still Looks Undervalued

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. </li>
<li>Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.</li>
<li>Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.</li>
</ul>


FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. 
Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.
Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.


Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lung-fung-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46142:1" rel="noopener">Lung Fung Group (2290 HK)</a>, a leading Hong Kong-based chain retail store of beauty, health and pharmaceutical products, is seeking to raise HK$672m net proceeds.</li>
<li>When compared with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sa-sa-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20143:1" rel="noopener">Sa Sa (178 HK)</a>, it has higher operating and net margins, and also better net profit for FY27.  </li>
<li>At the high-end of IPO price range (HK$6.38), it trades on 9.2x FY27 PER. At par to Sa Sa's 12x, there will be a 29% upside potential to HK$8.25. </li>
</ul>



Lung Fung Group (2290 HK), a leading Hong Kong-based chain retail store of beauty, health and pharmaceutical products, is seeking to raise HK$672m net proceeds.
When compared with Sa Sa (178 HK), it has higher operating and net margins, and also better net profit for FY27.  
At the high-end of IPO price range (HK$6.38), it trades on 9.2x FY27 PER. At par to Sa Sa's 12x, there will be a 29% upside potential to HK$8.25. 


Lung Fung Group (2290 HK) IPO: Too Cheap to Ignore

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A month ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-m-a-closing-in-on-the-tsuruha-partial-tender-likely-needs-to-be-higher" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206132" rel="noopener">[Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher</a>. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  </li>
<li>At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shares are up 10.0% in that month. </li>
<li>The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100</li>
</ul>


A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100


[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Japan

MatsukiyoCocokara & Co. operates drug store chains. The Company retails medicines, cosmetics, health foods, beauty care products, and other products. MatsukiyoCocokara & also operates supermarkets and home centers.

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MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP)

Lung Fung Group (2290 HK): Still Looks Undervalued

Lung Fung announced that its retail sales revenue increased 21.2% in 1Q FY27, while same-store sales grew 10.3%. This is solid momentum, suggesting...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Lung Fung Group (2290 HK) IPO: Too Cheap to Ignore

Lung Fung Group seeks to raise HK$672m in IPO, showing higher margins and profit compared to Sa Sa, with potential 29% upside at IPO price range.

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Tsuruha and Welcia getting smacked late this AM and early PM - down 7% just now. This looks like an unwind of pre-positioned longs for the M _ _ _...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Lung Fung Group (2290 HK): Still Looks Undervalued

Lung Fung announced that its retail sales revenue increased 21.2% in 1Q FY27, while same-store sales grew 10.3%. This is solid momentum, suggesting...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: ​FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Lung Fung Group (2290 HK) IPO: Too Cheap to Ignore

​Lung Fung Group seeks to raise HK$672m in IPO, showing higher margins and profit compared to Sa Sa, with potential 29% upside at IPO price range.

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Tsuruha and Welcia getting smacked late this AM and early PM - down 7% just now. This looks like an unwind of pre-positioned longs for the M _ _ _...

Travis Lundy

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Lung Fung Group seeks to raise HK$672m in IPO, showing higher margins and profit compared to Sa Sa, with potential 29% upside at IPO price range.