Independent Fund Manager, Swaen Capital

Swaen Capital

Independent Fund Manager

Swaen Capital is a Singapore based licensed independent fund manager with an open architecture, a non bias financial platform creating access to the best custodians and investment managers. Our focus lies within the wealth management business, covering client relationships, financial planning, advisory, as well as discretionary portfolio management. We have developed strategic alliances with other leading independent firms to complement and extend our offerings to clients (global hedge fund research capability, alternative investment offerings, corporate finance, fund structuring & administration, etc). Our know-how, extensive global network and long standing presence in Asia allows us to provide a global footprint and at the same time enables us to capitalize on regional opportunities.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).</li>
<li>Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.</li>
<li>Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.</li>
</ul>


The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).
Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.
Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.


Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 8.7% in 2025, after a surge to 12.7%YoY growth in Q4'25. Soaring AI- and cloud-computing demand for semiconductors caused the trade surplus to nearly double in 2025. </li>
<li>Inflation moderated to a 5-year low of 0.67%YoY in Jan'26; the US trade deal will keep inflation tame. We expect 12.5bp rate cuts at both June and September CBC meetings. </li>
<li>We expect 11% real GDP growth in H1'26 and 9% growth for 2026. Stay OVERWEIGHT Taiwan, particularly its world-leading technology sector. </li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 8.7% in 2025, after a surge to 12.7%YoY growth in Q4'25. Soaring AI- and cloud-computing demand for semiconductors caused the trade surplus to nearly double in 2025. 
Inflation moderated to a 5-year low of 0.67%YoY in Jan'26; the US trade deal will keep inflation tame. We expect 12.5bp rate cuts at both June and September CBC meetings. 
We expect 11% real GDP growth in H1'26 and 9% growth for 2026. Stay OVERWEIGHT Taiwan, particularly its world-leading technology sector. 


Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.</li>
<li>However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. </li>
<li>The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.
However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. 
The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.


What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The SOX is up ~55% since March ’26, on the back of massive earnings. Valuations are  average. Within the SOX, there is a wide divergence in performance and valuations.</li>
<li>Memory sector is, at the same time: highest earnings growth, highest stock performance, and yet the lowest valuations. </li>
<li>Within the big caps, NVDA and TSMC are now abnormally cheap.</li>
</ul>


The SOX is up ~55% since March ’26, on the back of massive earnings. Valuations are  average. Within the SOX, there is a wide divergence in performance and valuations.
Memory sector is, at the same time: highest earnings growth, highest stock performance, and yet the lowest valuations. 
Within the big caps, NVDA and TSMC are now abnormally cheap.


What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. </li>
<li>
Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. </li>
<li>
Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.</li>
</ul>



Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. 

Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. 

Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.


TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and...

Swaen Capital

Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...

Prasenjit K. Basu

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and...

Swaen Capital

Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

​RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...

Prasenjit K. Basu

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

​The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

​Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...

The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...