Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.</li>
<li>
AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing -- NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.</li>
<li>
Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view -- AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.</li>
</ul>



MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.

AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing -- NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.

Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view -- AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.


MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%. </li>
<li>In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs. </li>
<li>Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%. 
In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs. 
Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>1Q15 Smartphone units up 1.5-3% YoY but given accelerated imports to US and Chinese consumer subsidies, end-demand was probably flat YoY. TSMC 1Q25 revenues suggest that Smartphone chips declined YoY.</li>
<li>We should expect a correction in 2H25 and overall flat 2025 YoY.</li>
<li>The only positive is that chips are getting bigger (AI cores) and more expensive (3nm) and hence positive to Mediatek and Qualcomm, but not to phone Brands Apple included.</li>
</ul>


1Q15 Smartphone units up 1.5-3% YoY but given accelerated imports to US and Chinese consumer subsidies, end-demand was probably flat YoY. TSMC 1Q25 revenues suggest that Smartphone chips declined YoY.
We should expect a correction in 2H25 and overall flat 2025 YoY.
The only positive is that chips are getting bigger (AI cores) and more expensive (3nm) and hence positive to Mediatek and Qualcomm, but not to phone Brands Apple included.


Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated holding was USD1,126.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,805mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Jinan Acetate Chemical, TSMC, Elite Material, Evergreen Marine, UMC, China Development Financial, Cathay Financial, Asustek Computer, Quanta Computer, Uni-President Enterprises.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated holding was USD1,126.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,805mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Jinan Acetate Chemical, TSMC, Elite Material, Evergreen Marine, UMC, China Development Financial, Cathay Financial, Asustek Computer, Quanta Computer, Uni-President Enterprises.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 27th): Jinan Acetate Chemical, TSMC, Elite Material

<ul>
<li>3Q24 results are inline at the Operating level and 12% above Consensus at the Net Income level. 4Q guidance inline for revenues but 10% below Consensus at Operating level.</li>
<li>Smartphone revenues increased in 3Q24 on Premium AI-enabled chipset. However, 4Q revenue outlook is flat YoY and QoQ. The recovery period after the 2023 downturn seems to be ending.</li>
<li>The Mediatek conundrum is that the stock is expensive versus a slow 2025 outlook. Growth drivers exists but beyond 2025. In the short-term, the stock is unattractive.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 results are inline at the Operating level and 12% above Consensus at the Net Income level. 4Q guidance inline for revenues but 10% below Consensus at Operating level.
Smartphone revenues increased in 3Q24 on Premium AI-enabled chipset. However, 4Q revenue outlook is flat YoY and QoQ. The recovery period after the 2023 downturn seems to be ending.
The Mediatek conundrum is that the stock is expensive versus a slow 2025 outlook. Growth drivers exists but beyond 2025. In the short-term, the stock is unattractive.


Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...

Patrick Liao

Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 27th): Jinan Acetate Chemical, TSMC, Elite Material

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Jinan Acetate Chemical (4763 TT), TSMC (2330...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive

Since 4Q23, revenues have been fattish in NT$. YoY revenue growth is the result of the 2023 downturn. Our main concern regarding Mediatek is high...

Nicolas Baratte

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MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

​MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

​MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...

Patrick Liao

Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

​1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 27th): Jinan Acetate Chemical, TSMC, Elite Material

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Jinan Acetate Chemical (4763 TT), TSMC (2330...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive

Since 4Q23, revenues have been fattish in NT$. YoY revenue growth is the result of the 2023 downturn. Our main concern regarding Mediatek is high...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...

MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...

1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...