Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For the upcoming revenue outlook, MediaTek Inc (2454 TT) is likely to reach an upside of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>MediaTek plans to release 12 million units of the Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F.</li>
<li>Mediatek's target markets include China, India, and Southeast Asia, with China remaining the primary market of focus.</li>
</ul>


For the upcoming revenue outlook, MediaTek Inc (2454 TT) is likely to reach an upside of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
MediaTek plans to release 12 million units of the Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F.
Mediatek's target markets include China, India, and Southeast Asia, with China remaining the primary market of focus.


MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> has rebounded from the bottom of the cycle, and it will be able to reach more than 20% YoY in 2024F.</li>
<li>The demand for 4G and 5G Smartphone SoC will be split around 55/45 by shipment volume, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> being the primary supplier for MediaTek.</li>
<li>The MediaTek Dimensity 6000 series will be the new flagship product line in 2024F.</li>
</ul>



Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has rebounded from the bottom of the cycle, and it will be able to reach more than 20% YoY in 2024F.
The demand for 4G and 5G Smartphone SoC will be split around 55/45 by shipment volume, with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) being the primary supplier for MediaTek.
The MediaTek Dimensity 6000 series will be the new flagship product line in 2024F.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Rebounding from Cycle Bottom.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The percentage of Global funds invested in Taiwan hits an all-time high of 57.8%.</li>
<li>Taiwan has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation alongside India, Argentina and South Korea over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>TSMC is the dominant stock holding, with 49.8% of funds holding a position and has hit record ownership among Global funds.</li>
</ul>


The percentage of Global funds invested in Taiwan hits an all-time high of 57.8%.
Taiwan has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation alongside India, Argentina and South Korea over the last 6-months.
TSMC is the dominant stock holding, with 49.8% of funds holding a position and has hit record ownership among Global funds.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.</li>
<li>A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. </li>
<li>China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.</li>
</ul>


During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. 
China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.


More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.

MediaTek expects a 10% QoQ growth in 1Q24F and plans to release 12 million units of Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F. MediaTek's growth is targeting...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): Rebounding from Cycle Bottom.

MediaTek has reached the bottom of the cycle. The demand for 4G and 5G Smartphone SoC will be split around 55/45 by shipment volume. Dimensity 6000...

Patrick Liao

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers

Taiwan hits record levels of exposure among actively managed Global equity funds, yet it still lags behind its counterparts in the USA and Europe.

Steven Holden

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

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MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.

​MediaTek expects a 10% QoQ growth in 1Q24F and plans to release 12 million units of Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F. MediaTek's growth is targeting...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): Rebounding from Cycle Bottom.

MediaTek has reached the bottom of the cycle. The demand for 4G and 5G Smartphone SoC will be split around 55/45 by shipment volume. Dimensity 6000...

Patrick Liao

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers

Taiwan hits record levels of exposure among actively managed Global equity funds, yet it still lags behind its counterparts in the USA and Europe.

Steven Holden

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

MediaTek expects a 10% QoQ growth in 1Q24F and plans to release 12 million units of Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F. MediaTek's growth is targeting...