Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.</li>
<li>A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. </li>
<li>China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.</li>
</ul>


During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. 
China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.


More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We contacted Mediatek management in regards to the latest Arm restrictions for China; Mediatek doesn't expect to be impacted.</li>
<li>Mediatek's latest chipsets are competing well against Qualcomm, and its China competition has been stunted by U.S. restrictions in our view.</li>
<li>We have established our financial model for the company - We believe the shares should be held or accumulated on a value-basis.</li>
</ul>


We contacted Mediatek management in regards to the latest Arm restrictions for China; Mediatek doesn't expect to be impacted.
Mediatek's latest chipsets are competing well against Qualcomm, and its China competition has been stunted by U.S. restrictions in our view.
We have established our financial model for the company - We believe the shares should be held or accumulated on a value-basis.


Mediatek: We Contacted Management Re: Latest Arm Restrictions, Accumulate

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
MediaTek and Nvidia expected to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex May 19 - 23; a major milestone for Mediatek expanding into the massive Windows PC market.</li>
<li>
We will be looking to see how the new chips are positioned; To highlight full local LLM inference; enabling private, real-time AI at the edge for PCs?</li>
<li>
We maintain our Structural Long view for Mediatek shares; MediaTek is evolving from mobile SoC leader to full-stack AI compute player across smartphones, PCs, and data centers.</li>
</ul>



MediaTek and Nvidia expected to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex May 19 - 23; a major milestone for Mediatek expanding into the massive Windows PC market.

We will be looking to see how the new chips are positioned; To highlight full local LLM inference; enabling private, real-time AI at the edge for PCs?

We maintain our Structural Long view for Mediatek shares; MediaTek is evolving from mobile SoC leader to full-stack AI compute player across smartphones, PCs, and data centers.


Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

<ul>
<li>
MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.</li>
<li>
AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing -- NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.</li>
<li>
Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view -- AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.</li>
</ul>



MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.

AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing -- NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.

Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view -- AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.


MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%. </li>
<li>In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs. </li>
<li>Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%. 
In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs. 
Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

Mediatek: We Contacted Management Re: Latest Arm Restrictions, Accumulate

We have established our financial model for the company - We believe the shares should be held or accumulated on a value-basis.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...

Patrick Liao

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More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

Mediatek: We Contacted Management Re: Latest Arm Restrictions, Accumulate

We have established our financial model for the company - We believe the shares should be held or accumulated on a value-basis.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

​MediaTek and Nvidia likely to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex, marking a milestone for MediaTek in Windows PC market. Evolving from...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

​MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

​MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek and Nvidia likely to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex, marking a milestone for MediaTek in Windows PC market. Evolving from...

MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...

MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...