Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...</li>
<li>...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...
...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.


Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ChipAgents is moving agentic EDA into production, with Andes Tech reporting major cycle-time reductions and ChipAgents reaching 120+ semiconductor customers after roughly 6x ARR growth in H12026.</li>
<li>EDA-Maxxing depends on agents creating more paid design activity through additional projects and deeper exploration than they eliminate through fewer expensive tool runs.</li>
<li>Cadence and Synopsys have early monetisation advantages, but investors still need evidence that higher agent-driven tool usage translates into larger EDA budgets and incremental revenue.</li>
</ul>


ChipAgents is moving agentic EDA into production, with Andes Tech reporting major cycle-time reductions and ChipAgents reaching 120+ semiconductor customers after roughly 6x ARR growth in H12026.
EDA-Maxxing depends on agents creating more paid design activity through additional projects and deeper exploration than they eliminate through fewer expensive tool runs.
Cadence and Synopsys have early monetisation advantages, but investors still need evidence that higher agent-driven tool usage translates into larger EDA budgets and incremental revenue.


[EDA-Maxxing] AI Agents Are Designing Faster; Will EDA Spending Follow?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week: OpenAI and Anthropic refreshed frontier models while Moonshot started its Hong Kong IPO process.</li>
<li>MiniMax powered HUMAIN's Arabic sovereign model, Alibaba refreshed Qwen, and Artificial Analysis kept new US frontier releases at the top of the ranking.</li>
<li>Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face, Anthropic expanded compute financing, and AI infrastructure demand flowed through hyperscalers, hardware vendors, chips and memory.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week: OpenAI and Anthropic refreshed frontier models while Moonshot started its Hong Kong IPO process.
MiniMax powered HUMAIN's Arabic sovereign model, Alibaba refreshed Qwen, and Artificial Analysis kept new US frontier releases at the top of the ranking.
Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face, Anthropic expanded compute financing, and AI infrastructure demand flowed through hyperscalers, hardware vendors, chips and memory.


This Week in AI (Aug 30-Sep 5): GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1 in Same Week; Moonshot Files IPO

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q25: just in-line. 2025 ends with essentially no growth YoY. Weak 1Q26 guidance, weak margins, operating profit -8% below Consensus and declining -27% YoY. Very weak.</li>
<li>2026: decline in smartphone volumes due component (memory) prices pressure; growth in Edge, connectivity and the beginning of AI Data Center chips. The slow decline in margins could finally stabilize. </li>
<li>Weak outlook but CEO increase AI addressable market (not timeline). Is it enough?</li>
</ul>


4Q25: just in-line. 2025 ends with essentially no growth YoY. Weak 1Q26 guidance, weak margins, operating profit -8% below Consensus and declining -27% YoY. Very weak.
2026: decline in smartphone volumes due component (memory) prices pressure; growth in Edge, connectivity and the beginning of AI Data Center chips. The slow decline in margins could finally stabilize. 
Weak outlook but CEO increase AI addressable market (not timeline). Is it enough?


Mediatek: 4Q25 Was Ok, 1Q26 Guidance Very Weak. AI Chip Revenue in '26 Lead to Expensive Valuation

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
<strong>FY2025 revenue record, profit in-line with consensus.</strong> Connectivity business exceeded US$3bn as Wi-Fi 7 tripled and 5G modem doubled, signaling infrastructure buildout for edge AI.</li>
<li>GB10 partnership with NVIDIA positions MediaTek in the emerging personal AI hardware category as DGX Spark ships to developers and enterprises.</li>
<li>For investors, MediaTek offers diversified exposure to AI infrastructure buildout across edge and cloud, though near-term share price spike warrants patience.</li>
</ul>



FY2025 revenue record, profit in-line with consensus. Connectivity business exceeded US$3bn as Wi-Fi 7 tripled and 5G modem doubled, signaling infrastructure buildout for edge AI.
GB10 partnership with NVIDIA positions MediaTek in the emerging personal AI hardware category as DGX Spark ships to developers and enterprises.
For investors, MediaTek offers diversified exposure to AI infrastructure buildout across edge and cloud, though near-term share price spike warrants patience.


Mediatek: Emerging as the Picks-And-Shovels Play on Edge AI Infrastructure

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Premarket Report: Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159. $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM

Vermilion Research

[EDA-Maxxing] AI Agents Are Designing Faster; Will EDA Spending Follow?

AI agents are making chip design faster, but will they make EDA more valuable? We examine whether agentic workflows expand paid demand for Cadence...

Mint Finance

This Week in AI (Aug 30-Sep 5): GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1 in Same Week; Moonshot Files IPO

This week in AI: GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1 arrive together; Nvidia buys Hugging Face for USD 12.93bn; Moonshot files for a Hong Kong IPO.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mediatek: 4Q25 Was Ok, 1Q26 Guidance Very Weak. AI Chip Revenue in '26 Lead to Expensive Valuation

4Q25 inline., 1Q26 weak margins, declining operating profit. 2026 expected to see decline in smartphone volumes but potential growth in Edge,...

Nicolas Baratte

Mediatek: Emerging as the Picks-And-Shovels Play on Edge AI Infrastructure

FY2025 revenue hits record high w/ strong growth in connectivity business driven by Wi-Fi 7 and 5G modem. Partnership w/ NVIDIA positions for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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