Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming 1Q25 could be relatively flat or slightly higher than 4Q24, which represents a better start than usual due to seasonal effects.  </li>
<li>The Dimistry 8400/9400 models have been successful sellers, and a new Dimistry 9500 is expected to be launched after the first half of 2025. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tsmc-2330-tt-tsm-us-1q25-outlook-tsmc-will-use-2nm-in-4q25-and-production-will-occur-in-1q26" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(link)</a>
</li>
<li>The China electronic household subsidy program, including smartphone, has resulted in over 8 million sales in shipments within 4 days on Jan 25.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming 1Q25 could be relatively flat or slightly higher than 4Q24, which represents a better start than usual due to seasonal effects.  
The Dimistry 8400/9400 models have been successful sellers, and a new Dimistry 9500 is expected to be launched after the first half of 2025. (link)

The China electronic household subsidy program, including smartphone, has resulted in over 8 million sales in shipments within 4 days on Jan 25.


MediaTek (2454.TT): A Good Start in 1Q25; D9500 Launched After About 1H25; China Subsidy.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Since the last rebalancing of our portfolio on 5th September, it has returned 13.5% vs 9.5% from MSCI-Asia-ex-Japan. Since inception (15th May), our portfolio has appreciated 20.1% vs MXASJ's 18.6%.</li>
<li>Six stocks, SK Hynix, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Alibaba, China Hongqiao, Tencent, contributed almost the entire return of our portfolio. Overweight on Korea drove more than half the portfolio's return.</li>
<li>We turn more selective on Chinese discretionary consumption and step into the Korean defense sector. We exclude Anta Sports and Mediatek and include Hyundai Rotem and Hon Hai Precision.</li>
</ul>


Since the last rebalancing of our portfolio on 5th September, it has returned 13.5% vs 9.5% from MSCI-Asia-ex-Japan. Since inception (15th May), our portfolio has appreciated 20.1% vs MXASJ's 18.6%.
Six stocks, SK Hynix, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Alibaba, China Hongqiao, Tencent, contributed almost the entire return of our portfolio. Overweight on Korea drove more than half the portfolio's return.
We turn more selective on Chinese discretionary consumption and step into the Korean defense sector. We exclude Anta Sports and Mediatek and include Hyundai Rotem and Hon Hai Precision.


Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Sharply; Less China Consumption, More Korea Defence

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> Pixel 10 will use the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> T9000 modem.  </li>
<li>The shipment quantity to the smartphone market is small, and we see this as a small triumph for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> is facing a 3nm process issue and lacks the capacity to support its own smartphone CPU Exynos 2400.</li>
</ul>



Alphabet (GOOGL US) Pixel 10 will use the Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) T9000 modem.  
The shipment quantity to the smartphone market is small, and we see this as a small triumph for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT).

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing a 3nm process issue and lacks the capacity to support its own smartphone CPU Exynos 2400.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Google Pixel 10 Will Use MediaTek's Modem

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Report -- Google Drops QCOM, Shifts to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G Modems</li>
<li>Strong "Double" Indication for Mediatek's Competitiveness -- Combined with Recent Reports that Mediatek Won Apple to Provide Modems for the Apple Watch</li>
<li>Mediatek's Opportunity to Deliver a Big Win for Google; Maintain Our Structural Long Rating for Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


Report -- Google Drops QCOM, Shifts to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G Modems
Strong "Double" Indication for Mediatek's Competitiveness -- Combined with Recent Reports that Mediatek Won Apple to Provide Modems for the Apple Watch
Mediatek's Opportunity to Deliver a Big Win for Google; Maintain Our Structural Long Rating for Mediatek.


Mediatek: Google Reportedly Dropping QCOM & Adopting Mediatek for Pixel 10 Modem; Structural Long

<ul>
<li>Although the outlook for 1Q25 might be somewhat negative, we believe that it is a reasonably typical result.</li>
<li>We understand that MediaTek did not succeed in qualifying its Apple iPad and iWatch CPUs originally, but we believe it is now preparing for a re-qualification process.</li>
<li>Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate a more favorable outlook for MediaTek.</li>
</ul>


Although the outlook for 1Q25 might be somewhat negative, we believe that it is a reasonably typical result.
We understand that MediaTek did not succeed in qualifying its Apple iPad and iWatch CPUs originally, but we believe it is now preparing for a re-qualification process.
Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate a more favorable outlook for MediaTek.


MediaTek (2454.TT): D9400 Success Will Extend into 2025. Prepare to Re-Qualify IPad and IWatch.

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

MediaTek (2454.TT): A Good Start in 1Q25; D9500 Launched After About 1H25; China Subsidy.

1Q25 outlook for TSMC shows potential growth, new Dimistry 9500 model expected, and China subsidy program boosts electronic sales.

Patrick Liao

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Sharply; Less China Consumption, More Korea Defence

China's economic data (FAI & industrial growth sharply lower than expected, retail sales growth underwhelming) underscores the need for nuanced...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

MediaTek (2454.TT): Google Pixel 10 Will Use MediaTek's Modem

Alphabet's Pixel 10 to use Mediatek T9000 modem, a small win for Mediatek. Samsung faces 3nm process issue for Exynos 2400 CPU.

Patrick Liao

Mediatek: Google Reportedly Dropping QCOM & Adopting Mediatek for Pixel 10 Modem; Structural Long

Google is reportedly switching from Qualcomm to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G modems, showing Mediatek's competitiveness and potential for to deliver...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): D9400 Success Will Extend into 2025. Prepare to Re-Qualify IPad and IWatch.

Despite setbacks with Apple products, MediaTek is expected to see a more positive outlook in 2025 after a typical 1Q25 dip.

Patrick Liao

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MediaTek (2454.TT): A Good Start in 1Q25; D9500 Launched After About 1H25; China Subsidy.

​1Q25 outlook for TSMC shows potential growth, new Dimistry 9500 model expected, and China subsidy program boosts electronic sales.

Patrick Liao

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Sharply; Less China Consumption, More Korea Defence

China's economic data (FAI & industrial growth sharply lower than expected, retail sales growth underwhelming) underscores the need for nuanced...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

MediaTek (2454.TT): Google Pixel 10 Will Use MediaTek's Modem

​Alphabet's Pixel 10 to use Mediatek T9000 modem, a small win for Mediatek. Samsung faces 3nm process issue for Exynos 2400 CPU.

Patrick Liao

Mediatek: Google Reportedly Dropping QCOM & Adopting Mediatek for Pixel 10 Modem; Structural Long

​Google is reportedly switching from Qualcomm to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G modems, showing Mediatek's competitiveness and potential for to deliver...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): D9400 Success Will Extend into 2025. Prepare to Re-Qualify IPad and IWatch.

​Despite setbacks with Apple products, MediaTek is expected to see a more positive outlook in 2025 after a typical 1Q25 dip.

Patrick Liao

1Q25 outlook for TSMC shows potential growth, new Dimistry 9500 model expected, and China subsidy program boosts electronic sales.

Alphabet's Pixel 10 to use Mediatek T9000 modem, a small win for Mediatek. Samsung faces 3nm process issue for Exynos 2400 CPU.

Google is reportedly switching from Qualcomm to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G modems, showing Mediatek's competitiveness and potential for to deliver...

Despite setbacks with Apple products, MediaTek is expected to see a more positive outlook in 2025 after a typical 1Q25 dip.