Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.</li>
<li>We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024.</li>
<li>We are confident in the company’s financial performance, but the stock price is overvalued.</li>
</ul>


In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024.
We are confident in the company’s financial performance, but the stock price is overvalued.


Trip.com (TCOM) 4Q24 Preview: Rising with Travelers, But High in Stock Price

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> added to the list of disaapointing tea chain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group-bab2ff71-b80e-406a-8746-77d70acaa16e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40625:1" rel="noopener">MIXUE</a> is said to be gearing up for a launch soon.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there were two smallish deals in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, while Guming Holdings (1364 HK) added to the list of disaapointing tea chain, MIXUE is said to be gearing up for a launch soon.
On the placements front, there were two smallish deals in Japan.


ECM Weekly (17th Feb 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Mixue, Guming, Hexaware, Ajax, Aegis, Daiichi, Takasago

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week - HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.</li>
<li>There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!</li>
</ul>


There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week - HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.
There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> ended on 31 December.</li>
<li>There could be one constituent change in March. With capping changes, that could lead to a one-way turnover of 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.88bn (US$884m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> is also a potential inclusion to the HSCI Index in March, though inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only come through in May.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 31 December.
There could be one constituent change in March. With capping changes, that could lead to a one-way turnover of 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.88bn (US$884m).

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is also a potential inclusion to the HSCI Index in March, though inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only come through in May.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: One Constituent Change & US$884m Trade

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>We believe in 2025 HK/China shall outperform EM. While the undervalued and under-owned characteristic of the China market is well-known, monetizability of China’s technological capabilities has become apparent only recently.</li>
<li>Policy stimuli during the upcoming NPC could catalyze consumer sentiment and market performance. China’s structural hurdles, Debt, Demographics and Deflation, remain. But correct stock and sector selection can generate alpha.</li>
<li>We prefer the internet platforms, consumer discretionary and high dividend yield, the latter largely SOEs. Our “China Twelve” are mostly reasonably valued (low teen PE), with double digit EPS growth.</li>
</ul>


We believe in 2025 HK/China shall outperform EM. While the undervalued and under-owned characteristic of the China market is well-known, monetizability of China’s technological capabilities has become apparent only recently.
Policy stimuli during the upcoming NPC could catalyze consumer sentiment and market performance. China’s structural hurdles, Debt, Demographics and Deflation, remain. But correct stock and sector selection can generate alpha.
We prefer the internet platforms, consumer discretionary and high dividend yield, the latter largely SOEs. Our “China Twelve” are mostly reasonably valued (low teen PE), with double digit EPS growth.


Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Trip.com (TCOM) 4Q24 Preview: Rising with Travelers, But High in Stock Price

In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024. We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024. However, the stock...

Ming Lu

ECM Weekly (17th Feb 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Mixue, Guming, Hexaware, Ajax, Aegis, Daiichi, Takasago

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

SOUTHBOUND traded HUGE volumes this past week as the main 3 Hang Seng indices outperformed their A-share main indices quite dramatically, again....

Travis Lundy

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: One Constituent Change & US$884m Trade

One week to go to the announcement of the index changes. Horizon Robotics is up 63% over the last 5 week and East Buy is down 17%. Time to take...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com (TCOM) 4Q24 Preview: Rising with Travelers, But High in Stock Price

In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024. We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024. However, the stock...

Ming Lu

ECM Weekly (17th Feb 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Mixue, Guming, Hexaware, Ajax, Aegis, Daiichi, Takasago

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

SOUTHBOUND traded HUGE volumes this past week as the main 3 Hang Seng indices outperformed their A-share main indices quite dramatically, again....

Travis Lundy

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: One Constituent Change & US$884m Trade

One week to go to the announcement of the index changes. Horizon Robotics is up 63% over the last 5 week and East Buy is down 17%. Time to take...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: It's China's Year - Our "China Twelve" In the Year of the Snake

​In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

In 25 HK/China should outperform. Monetization of China's tech capability, policy stimulus during NPC are catalysts. Structural issues- Debt,...