Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q3 21 in-line for revenue but well ahead for EBITDA on solid advertising growth leading to an upgrade in management's full-year EBITDA target.</li>
<li>Operational results were encouraging with double-digit gains in ad sales and 7% eCommerce growth despite strong year-ago comps.</li>
<li>Impairment losses for equity associate Demae-Can sting but the overall story is positive.</li>
</ul>


Q3 21 in-line for revenue but well ahead for EBITDA on solid advertising growth leading to an upgrade in management's full-year EBITDA target.
Operational results were encouraging with double-digit gains in ad sales and 7% eCommerce growth despite strong year-ago comps.
Impairment losses for equity associate Demae-Can sting but the overall story is positive.


Z Holdings (Buy) Q3 21 Results Reaction: Mostly Positive as Ad Sales Continues to Impress

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.</li>
<li>Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. </li>
<li>On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.</li>
</ul>


In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.
Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. 
On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.


A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

<ul>
<li>Mercari is down 33% since 22 November, actually underperforming the 31% decline in Mothers. </li>
<li>YoY numbers for the US may only modestly beat the 20% growth target for the year and this reset of expectations may have been the driver of the decline. </li>
<li>However, we expect significant upside surprises on profitability and that is our focus.</li>
</ul>


Mercari is down 33% since 22 November, actually underperforming the 31% decline in Mothers. 
YoY numbers for the US may only modestly beat the 20% growth target for the year and this reset of expectations may have been the driver of the decline. 
However, we expect significant upside surprises on profitability and that is our focus.


Mercari – US GMV Is Downside Risk but Profitability Is a Larger Upside Risk

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Mercari was expected to announce at some point that it would attempt to transfer to TSE Prime. They have now announced. </li>
<li>This will end up being a BIG TOPIX inclusion in May or June. </li>
<li>And the changes to the TOPIX Free Float Weight Methodology will mean it is bigger than it would have been under the old regime (despite unchanged FFW).</li>
</ul>


Mercari was expected to announce at some point that it would attempt to transfer to TSE Prime. They have now announced. 
This will end up being a BIG TOPIX inclusion in May or June. 
And the changes to the TOPIX Free Float Weight Methodology will mean it is bigger than it would have been under the old regime (despite unchanged FFW).


Mercari (4385) Applying for TSE Prime Means TOPIX Inclusion in 4-5 Months

<ul>
<li>Today the TSE announced its long-awaited segmentation of the 3,777 stocks listed on the five major venues, and where they will move on 4 April 2022. </li>
<li>TSE1 represented just under 98% of Japan's float market cap as of today's close. As some TSE1 members will move to TSE Standard, TSE Prime will represent 97+%. </li>
<li>There are tiny changes to TOPIX because of the moves - roughly 3bp of flow per quarter starting Oct 2022. The FFW Model Revision will be <em>far</em> more interesting.</li>
</ul>


Today the TSE announced its long-awaited segmentation of the 3,777 stocks listed on the five major venues, and where they will move on 4 April 2022. 
TSE1 represented just under 98% of Japan's float market cap as of today's close. As some TSE1 members will move to TSE Standard, TSE Prime will represent 97+%. 
There are tiny changes to TOPIX because of the moves - roughly 3bp of flow per quarter starting Oct 2022. The FFW Model Revision will be far more interesting.


TSE Announces Market Structure Revisions: Still Much Ado About Nothing

Japan

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

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Mercari (4385 JP)

Z Holdings (Buy) Q3 21 Results Reaction: Mostly Positive as Ad Sales Continues to Impress

This was a good quarter with better-than-expected growth in eCommerce, ad sales and cashless payments and an upgrade to the full-year EBITDA target...

Kirk Boodry

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

Mercari – US GMV Is Downside Risk but Profitability Is a Larger Upside Risk

Mercari's YoY numbers for the US may only modestly beat the 20% growth target for the year, however, we expect significant upside surprises on...

Mio Kato

Mercari (4385) Applying for TSE Prime Means TOPIX Inclusion in 4-5 Months

Mercari (4385 JP) announced Friday it applied for TSE Prime transfer. I expect a TOPIX inclusion end-May or end-June. The change in FFW method...

Travis Lundy

TSE Announces Market Structure Revisions: Still Much Ado About Nothing

The TSE today set the allocation of companies to the new TSE market structure segments. There are few surprises. Lots of noise, little change....

Travis Lundy

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