Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron's Latest Outlook Disappoints &amp; Shares Fall; Decoupling Trade Between SK Hynix &amp; Nanya Tech Has Worked However</li>
<li>Smartphone AI Insights -- On-Device Local Search &amp; Context-Aware Interfaces Emerging as Key Local AI Needs</li>
<li>Conclusion -- Consider Swapping In MICRON as the Long Side of the Memory Decoupling Trade</li>
</ul>


Micron's Latest Outlook Disappoints &amp; Shares Fall; Decoupling Trade Between SK Hynix &amp; Nanya Tech Has Worked However
Smartphone AI Insights -- On-Device Local Search &amp; Context-Aware Interfaces Emerging as Key Local AI Needs
Conclusion -- Consider Swapping In MICRON as the Long Side of the Memory Decoupling Trade


Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>SK hynix reported another stunning quarter: revenue up 39% YoY, Operating Profit up 62%</li>
<li>The soft guidance for 2026 points to increasing bit growth and we know that ASP are increasing. As SK hynix says "explosive AI growth".  </li>
<li>Best 2 Memory stocks 1. SK hynix 2. Micron.  Samsung? we still need a bit more clarity on HBM3E / 4  qualifications</li>
</ul>


SK hynix reported another stunning quarter: revenue up 39% YoY, Operating Profit up 62%
The soft guidance for 2026 points to increasing bit growth and we know that ASP are increasing. As SK hynix says "explosive AI growth".  
Best 2 Memory stocks 1. SK hynix 2. Micron.  Samsung? we still need a bit more clarity on HBM3E / 4  qualifications


SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

<ul>
<li>2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. </li>
<li>3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   </li>
<li>The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. </li>
</ul>


2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. 
3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   
The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. 


NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech

Micron's outlook disappointed last week, but the decoupling trade of Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech is working. Consider swapping in Micron as...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

Nicolas Baratte

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech

​Micron's outlook disappointed last week, but the decoupling trade of Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech is working. Consider swapping in Micron as...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

​SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

Nicolas Baratte

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

Micron's outlook disappointed last week, but the decoupling trade of Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech is working. Consider swapping in Micron as...

SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples