Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).</li>
<li>Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.</li>
</ul>


Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.


Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

<ul>
<li>SK hynix derived ~25-30% of revenues from AI in 2024 (HBM, LP-DDR, eSSD). AI revenues will double in 2025. SK hynix’s lead, both roadmap, manufacturing, qualifications extends to 2026.</li>
<li>AI high growth also allows SK hynix to lower its exposure to commodity PC, Mobile, consumer segments. Hence, margins likely continue to increase in 2025-26.</li>
<li>Sk hynix’s lead over Samsung is sustainable for at least 2025-26.  AI-related ASP / margins aren’t cyclical, unlike commodity memory. The stock trades at a miserable 6x 2025 EPS.</li>
</ul>


SK hynix derived ~25-30% of revenues from AI in 2024 (HBM, LP-DDR, eSSD). AI revenues will double in 2025. SK hynix’s lead, both roadmap, manufacturing, qualifications extends to 2026.
AI high growth also allows SK hynix to lower its exposure to commodity PC, Mobile, consumer segments. Hence, margins likely continue to increase in 2025-26.
Sk hynix’s lead over Samsung is sustainable for at least 2025-26.  AI-related ASP / margins aren’t cyclical, unlike commodity memory. The stock trades at a miserable 6x 2025 EPS.


SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Micron's latest results show a clear improvement in the Memory cycle. The company's gross margin increased and guided for a further strong margin increase next quarter.</li>
<li>Micron increased its overall DRAM industry growth forecast while maintaining its NAND flash forecast. Micron reiterated expectations for FY2025E to deliver record revenue for the company, with improving profitability.</li>
<li>Positive news for fallen Memory industry shares -- Within our Memory universe we have Structural Long ratings for Micron Technology (MU US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), and Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO US).</li>
</ul>


Micron's latest results show a clear improvement in the Memory cycle. The company's gross margin increased and guided for a further strong margin increase next quarter.
Micron increased its overall DRAM industry growth forecast while maintaining its NAND flash forecast. Micron reiterated expectations for FY2025E to deliver record revenue for the company, with improving profitability.
Positive news for fallen Memory industry shares -- Within our Memory universe we have Structural Long ratings for Micron Technology (MU US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), and Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO US).


Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.</li>
<li>While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.</li>
<li>I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.
While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.
I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.


The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

<ul>
<li>MSFT's new AI features for Windows will need computers with at least 16GB of DRAM to run effectively. MSFT is asking manufacturers for this as a minimum for AI models.</li>
<li>MSFT announced Copilot Pro for individuals and small businesses last week. The desire to use generative AI and the minimum required DRAM will drive accelerated PC upgrades.</li>
<li>We note relative strength in 16GB DRAM prices; In Memory space, we continue to see relative value in SK Hynix, however, Nanya has the opportunity to Outperform in Taiwan.</li>
</ul>


MSFT's new AI features for Windows will need computers with at least 16GB of DRAM to run effectively. MSFT is asking manufacturers for this as a minimum for AI models.
MSFT announced Copilot Pro for individuals and small businesses last week. The desire to use generative AI and the minimum required DRAM will drive accelerated PC upgrades.
We note relative strength in 16GB DRAM prices; In Memory space, we continue to see relative value in SK Hynix, however, Nanya has the opportunity to Outperform in Taiwan.


Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

Nicolas Baratte

SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Nicolas Baratte

Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

​News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

Nicolas Baratte

SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

​SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Nicolas Baratte

Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

​Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

​Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.

Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...