Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MNSO reported 1Q25 rev. in line with cons. but non-GAAP op. profit 17% below and GAAP net income 33% below cons, </li>
<li>We view MNSO's store expansion as being below its bar of quality. Downside risks were not fully priced in. Our 2025 revenue/net profit forecasts are 7.0%/8.2% below consensus;</li>
<li>We cut the TP from US$16 to US$13.5/ADS and keep the SELL rating.</li>
</ul>


MNSO reported 1Q25 rev. in line with cons. but non-GAAP op. profit 17% below and GAAP net income 33% below cons, 
We view MNSO's store expansion as being below its bar of quality. Downside risks were not fully priced in. Our 2025 revenue/net profit forecasts are 7.0%/8.2% below consensus;
We cut the TP from US$16 to US$13.5/ADS and keep the SELL rating.


[Miniso(MNSO US, SELL, TP US$13.5) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Low Quality Expansion Bore Bitter Fruit

<ul>
<li>MNSO reported C4Q24 rev.1.6%/2.0%, and non-GAAP EBIT 3.4%/2.0% below our est./cons.. What concerns us more is the quality of the growth;</li>
<li>In our view, MNSO's slow same-store-sales-growth (SSSG), overseas investment, and Yonghui's integration haven't fully reflected in the price;</li>
<li>We cut the TP to US$16 and maintain the SELL rating to reflect slower profit growth. The stock trades at 14x 25E P/E vs. a 12% 3 Yr. NI CAGR</li>
</ul>


MNSO reported C4Q24 rev.1.6%/2.0%, and non-GAAP EBIT 3.4%/2.0% below our est./cons.. What concerns us more is the quality of the growth;
In our view, MNSO's slow same-store-sales-growth (SSSG), overseas investment, and Yonghui's integration haven't fully reflected in the price;
We cut the TP to US$16 and maintain the SELL rating to reflect slower profit growth. The stock trades at 14x 25E P/E vs. a 12% 3 Yr. NI CAGR


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, SELL, TP US$16) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Downside Not yet Fully Priced In

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> committed to expanding in the U.S. with plans in place to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods via its diversified supply chain strategy.</li>
<li>Key investor concern: Slower store expansion in Mainland China in 2025 may temper near-term sales and profit growth. Capital intensive overseas expansion could dilute potential returns.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a>’s accelerating shift toward higher-margin IP co-branded lifestyle products—a strategy poised to sustain double-digit revenue growth, makes it an attractive investment play in the lifestyle retail space.</li>
</ul>



MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) committed to expanding in the U.S. with plans in place to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods via its diversified supply chain strategy.
Key investor concern: Slower store expansion in Mainland China in 2025 may temper near-term sales and profit growth. Capital intensive overseas expansion could dilute potential returns.

Miniso (MNSO US)’s accelerating shift toward higher-margin IP co-branded lifestyle products—a strategy poised to sustain double-digit revenue growth, makes it an attractive investment play in the lifestyle retail space.


Miniso: Undeterred by Tariffs. IP-Strategy, Global Expansion on Track. Value Buy

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Sunny Optical Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha Portfolio returned -1.29% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 0.34%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 7.93% to 9.64% since its inception on 10/01/24.  </li>
<li> About 75% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy or Materials. </li>
<li>At month-end we sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cinda-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:372:1" rel="noopener">China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20590:1" rel="noopener">Citic Ltd (267 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


HK Alpha Portfolio returned -1.29% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 0.34%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 7.93% to 9.64% since its inception on 10/01/24.  
 About 75% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy or Materials.  
At month-end we sold China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK) , Citic Ltd (267 HK) , China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) and GDS Holdings (9698 HK) .  


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> has surged 34% since announcing strong 9M24 results, backed by robust revenue growth, in end November, 2024.</li>
<li>With strong growth prospects, the stock could scale further in 2025, driven by rapid store expansion, blind box toys, ACG goods, and collaborations with top IPs like Harry Potter.</li>
<li>MINISO’s evolution from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with trademarked IP goods, innovative blind boxes, and creative retail formats enhances its competitive edge and drives growth.</li>
</ul>



MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) has surged 34% since announcing strong 9M24 results, backed by robust revenue growth, in end November, 2024.
With strong growth prospects, the stock could scale further in 2025, driven by rapid store expansion, blind box toys, ACG goods, and collaborations with top IPs like Harry Potter.
MINISO’s evolution from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with trademarked IP goods, innovative blind boxes, and creative retail formats enhances its competitive edge and drives growth.


MINISO (9896 HK): From Blind Boxes to ACG Hits—Growth Magic Continues in 2025!

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

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Miniso (MNSO US)

[Miniso(MNSO US, SELL, TP US$13.5) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Low Quality Expansion Bore Bitter Fruit

MNSO's 1Q25 revenue meets expectations but profit falls short, store expansion quality lacking, downside risks not fully accounted for. TP lowered...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, SELL, TP US$16) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Downside Not yet Fully Priced In

MNSO reports lower revenue and EBIT than expected, concerns over growth quality, slow SSSG and overseas investment not fully reflected in stock...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Miniso: Undeterred by Tariffs. IP-Strategy, Global Expansion on Track. Value Buy

Miniso presents compelling relative value versus Pop Mart (9992 HK) ’s premium valuation. Expect this valuation gap to narrow as investors gain...

Devi Subhakesan

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (January 2025)

Hong Kong Alpha portfolio lost 1.29% in January and outperformed its benchmark. We sold GDS, Citic, Cinda and China Galaxy Securities. We added...

David Mudd

MINISO (9896 HK): From Blind Boxes to ACG Hits—Growth Magic Continues in 2025!

Growth in 2025 could pick up pace as MINISO accelerates its transformation from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with more trademarked IP...

Devi Subhakesan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Miniso(MNSO US, SELL, TP US$13.5) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Low Quality Expansion Bore Bitter Fruit

​MNSO's 1Q25 revenue meets expectations but profit falls short, store expansion quality lacking, downside risks not fully accounted for. TP lowered...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, SELL, TP US$16) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Downside Not yet Fully Priced In

​MNSO reports lower revenue and EBIT than expected, concerns over growth quality, slow SSSG and overseas investment not fully reflected in stock...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Miniso: Undeterred by Tariffs. IP-Strategy, Global Expansion on Track. Value Buy

Miniso presents compelling relative value versus Pop Mart (9992 HK) ’s premium valuation. Expect this valuation gap to narrow as investors gain...

Devi Subhakesan

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (January 2025)

Hong Kong Alpha portfolio lost 1.29% in January and outperformed its benchmark. We sold GDS, Citic, Cinda and China Galaxy Securities. We added...

David Mudd

MINISO (9896 HK): From Blind Boxes to ACG Hits—Growth Magic Continues in 2025!

Growth in 2025 could pick up pace as MINISO accelerates its transformation from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with more trademarked IP...

Devi Subhakesan

MNSO's 1Q25 revenue meets expectations but profit falls short, store expansion quality lacking, downside risks not fully accounted for. TP lowered...

MNSO reports lower revenue and EBIT than expected, concerns over growth quality, slow SSSG and overseas investment not fully reflected in stock...