Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TCOM/HTHT/ATAT: China Tourism - OTA platform DAU remain lackluster, weak year end travel demand (-)</li>
<li>MNSO: Korea’s top dollar store chain Daiso buys out Japanese shareholder (-)</li>
<li>9995HK：Harbour BioMed have signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Pfizer of a mesothelin (MSLN) antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) (-) </li>
</ul>


TCOM/HTHT/ATAT: China Tourism - OTA platform DAU remain lackluster, weak year end travel demand (-)
MNSO: Korea’s top dollar store chain Daiso buys out Japanese shareholder (-)
9995HK：Harbour BioMed have signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Pfizer of a mesothelin (MSLN) antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) (-) 


[Blue Lotus Daily]: TCOM/HTHT/ATAT/MNSO/9995 HK/XPEV

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MNSO management hosted a conference call today which reiterated normal operation of business, guided C4Q23 revenue above consensus, gross margin up QoQ, and non-GAAP net profit margin stable;</li>
<li>MNSO management refuted short seller’s thesis, commented distributor inventory levels at healthy levels and provided backgrounds on disclosed insider share sales;</li>
<li>We welcome MNSO management’s timely communication and believe its business model to be solid. We reiterate BUY and TP.</li>
</ul>


MNSO management hosted a conference call today which reiterated normal operation of business, guided C4Q23 revenue above consensus, gross margin up QoQ, and non-GAAP net profit margin stable;
MNSO management refuted short seller’s thesis, commented distributor inventory levels at healthy levels and provided backgrounds on disclosed insider share sales;
We welcome MNSO management’s timely communication and believe its business model to be solid. We reiterate BUY and TP.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]: Management Reassured Future Growth Prospects

<ul>
<li>MNSO reported C3Q23 revenue in line with our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating income in line with our estimate. </li>
<li>However, stock fell 14% over two days, mainly on concern of slowdowns in overseas distributors;</li>
<li>Based on our channel checks, overseas distributor inventory has always been a problem, more so when heightened US interest rate pricking the consumption bubble in developing markets.</li>
</ul>


MNSO reported C3Q23 revenue in line with our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating income in line with our estimate. 
However, stock fell 14% over two days, mainly on concern of slowdowns in overseas distributors;
Based on our channel checks, overseas distributor inventory has always been a problem, more so when heightened US interest rate pricking the consumption bubble in developing markets.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>MNSO’s FY23 SEHK filing updated its operation metrics post C2Q23, where domestic was in-line but overseas beat our estimates. We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;</li>
<li>We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;</li>
<li>We maintain BUY and raise TP by US$4.5 to US$30.5 to factor in the profitability ramping up of oversea businesses.</li>
</ul>


MNSO’s FY23 SEHK filing updated its operation metrics post C2Q23, where domestic was in-line but overseas beat our estimates. We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;
We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;
We maintain BUY and raise TP by US$4.5 to US$30.5 to factor in the profitability ramping up of oversea businesses.


[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Miniso (MNSO US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: TCOM/HTHT/ATAT/MNSO/9995 HK/XPEV

China's tourism OTA platform sees low user activity and weak year-end travel demand. Korea's Daiso acquires Japanese shareholder. Harbour BioMed...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]: Management Reassured Future Growth Prospects

MNSO management reassures investors, refutes short seller claims, and maintains positive outlook. Analysts recommend buying.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: TCOM/HTHT/ATAT/MNSO/9995 HK/XPEV

​China's tourism OTA platform sees low user activity and weak year-end travel demand. Korea's Daiso acquires Japanese shareholder. Harbour BioMed...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]: Management Reassured Future Growth Prospects

​MNSO management reassures investors, refutes short seller claims, and maintains positive outlook. Analysts recommend buying.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Company Update]:Opportunity for a Reposition Has Come to Fore

​MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

China's tourism OTA platform sees low user activity and weak year-end travel demand. Korea's Daiso acquires Japanese shareholder. Harbour BioMed...

MNSO management reassures investors, refutes short seller claims, and maintains positive outlook. Analysts recommend buying.

MNSO's revenue and operating income met expectations, but the stock dropped due to concerns about overseas distributor slowdowns and inventory...