Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Miniso (MNSO) reported C2Q24 revenue (3.2%)/1.9% vs. our estimate/consensus. Non-GAAP NI (5.6%)/(2.7%) vs. our estimate/consensus. </li>
<li>Recent weak economic data in both China and U.S.,along with MNSO's deceleration in overseas average store sales;</li>
<li>We cut TP from US$34 to US$24 and maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


Miniso (MNSO) reported C2Q24 revenue (3.2%)/1.9% vs. our estimate/consensus. Non-GAAP NI (5.6%)/(2.7%) vs. our estimate/consensus. 
Recent weak economic data in both China and U.S.,along with MNSO's deceleration in overseas average store sales;
We cut TP from US$34 to US$24 and maintain BUY.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic

<ul>
<li>Miniso (MNSO) reported C1Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate/consensus. Non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 4.2%/2.6%, mainly due to better gross margin from IP sales.</li>
<li>Company cited pressure on profits in C2Q24 due to store expansion, yet we still believe MNSO can maintain an OPM of 20% for entire 2024</li>
<li>We maintain a BUY rating on the stock and maintain TP at US$34/ADS</li>
</ul>


Miniso (MNSO) reported C1Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate/consensus. Non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 4.2%/2.6%, mainly due to better gross margin from IP sales.
Company cited pressure on profits in C2Q24 due to store expansion, yet we still believe MNSO can maintain an OPM of 20% for entire 2024
We maintain a BUY rating on the stock and maintain TP at US$34/ADS


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Earnings Review]: No News Is Good News…Maintain BUY

<ul>
<li>We expect Miniso’s revenue for C1Q/2Q24 to be 1.0%/2.7% higher than consensus due to adequate inventory and strong sales of the Chiikawa series. </li>
<li>We believe Miniso has found a new competency in quickly turning around IP sales through economies of scale in supply chain and store network.</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise our TP by US$3 to US$34/ADS.</li>
</ul>


We expect Miniso’s revenue for C1Q/2Q24 to be 1.0%/2.7% higher than consensus due to adequate inventory and strong sales of the Chiikawa series. 
We believe Miniso has found a new competency in quickly turning around IP sales through economies of scale in supply chain and store network.
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise our TP by US$3 to US$34/ADS.


[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales

<ul>
<li>Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. </li>
<li>Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS</li>
</ul>


Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. 
Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run
We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

<ul>
<li>Intra-Urban mobility in major cities and foot traffic in leading shopping malls in China have demonstrated decent growth during 2024 CNY holiday period.</li>
<li>We estimate Miniso domestic store sales increased 35% yoy during CNY-holiday and 11% yoy during Jan to mid-Feb 2024. We expect Miniso total revenue to increase 26% yoy in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and maintain TP at US$33/ADS.</li>
</ul>


Intra-Urban mobility in major cities and foot traffic in leading shopping malls in China have demonstrated decent growth during 2024 CNY holiday period.
We estimate Miniso domestic store sales increased 35% yoy during CNY-holiday and 11% yoy during Jan to mid-Feb 2024. We expect Miniso total revenue to increase 26% yoy in 1Q24.
We maintain the stock as BUY and maintain TP at US$33/ADS.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$33) Company Update]: CNY Foot Traffic Growth Support Decent C1Q24

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

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Miniso (MNSO US)

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic

Miniso reports lower than expected revenue and non-GAAP net income, attributed to weak economic data in China and the U.S. Overseas store sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Earnings Review]: No News Is Good News…Maintain BUY

Miniso (MNSO) meets revenue expectations in Q1 but beats non-GAAP net income estimates, citing pressure on profits in Q2 from store expansion....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales

Miniso's revenue expected to exceed consensus in C1Q/2Q24 due to strong Chiikawa series sales and efficient IP sales strategy, prompting a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$33) Company Update]: CNY Foot Traffic Growth Support Decent C1Q24

Intra-urban mobility and foot traffic in Chinese shopping malls showed growth during 2024 CNY holiday, with Miniso domestic store sales up 35%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic

​Miniso reports lower than expected revenue and non-GAAP net income, attributed to weak economic data in China and the U.S. Overseas store sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Earnings Review]: No News Is Good News…Maintain BUY

​Miniso (MNSO) meets revenue expectations in Q1 but beats non-GAAP net income estimates, citing pressure on profits in Q2 from store expansion....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales

​Miniso's revenue expected to exceed consensus in C1Q/2Q24 due to strong Chiikawa series sales and efficient IP sales strategy, prompting a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

​Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$33) Company Update]: CNY Foot Traffic Growth Support Decent C1Q24

​Intra-urban mobility and foot traffic in Chinese shopping malls showed growth during 2024 CNY holiday, with Miniso domestic store sales up 35%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Miniso reports lower than expected revenue and non-GAAP net income, attributed to weak economic data in China and the U.S. Overseas store sales...

Miniso (MNSO) meets revenue expectations in Q1 but beats non-GAAP net income estimates, citing pressure on profits in Q2 from store expansion....

Miniso's revenue expected to exceed consensus in C1Q/2Q24 due to strong Chiikawa series sales and efficient IP sales strategy, prompting a BUY...

Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Intra-urban mobility and foot traffic in Chinese shopping malls showed growth during 2024 CNY holiday, with Miniso domestic store sales up 35%...