Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We recommend selling MSFT80, NONGFU80, and BKNG80 with returns of 4.6%, -0.3%, and -3.0%, respectively.</li><li>At the same time, we recommend initiating investment positions in MITSU19 and SONY80, which are DRs referencing leading companies in Japan.</li><li>The average price of the underlying securities in the portfolio rose 0.60%, supported by gains in AVG080, LOREAL80, and NONGFU80, amid mixed movements in global equity markets.</li></ul>

We recommend selling MSFT80, NONGFU80, and BKNG80 with returns of 4.6%, -0.3%, and -3.0%, respectively.At the same time, we recommend initiating investment positions in MITSU19 and SONY80, which are DRs referencing leading companies in Japan.The average price of the underlying securities in the portfolio rose 0.60%, supported by gains in AVG080, LOREAL80, and NONGFU80, amid mixed movements in global equity markets.

KTX Tactical DR Picks - August 8, 2025 (Eng.)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>, currently holding 6.19% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a>, a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer. </li>
<li>Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If &lt;13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.</li>
<li>Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), currently holding 6.19% in Thai Union Group (TU TB), a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer. 
Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If &lt;13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.
Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.


Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s Partial Tender

<ul>
<li>For July 2025, just six new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was 45%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%</li>
</ul>


For July 2025, just six new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was 45%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%


(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2025 Wrap: Pacific Industrial, Johns Lyon, TalkMed, DD Group, Hanil Cement

<ul>
<li>The benefits of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a> China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. </li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continue its Brazil market launch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.</li>
<li>Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. 
Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

KTX Tactical DR Picks - August 8, 2025 (Eng.)

We recommend selling MSFT80, NONGFU80, and BKNG80 with returns of 4.6%, -0.3%, and -3.0%, respectively. At the same time, we recommend initiating...

Krungthai XSpring

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s Partial Tender

Mitsubishi's partial arrives shortly after Thai Union touched a multi-year low. I'm not completely sold on this space and might look to take down...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2025 Wrap: Pacific Industrial, Johns Lyon, TalkMed, DD Group, Hanil Cement

For the month of July, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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