Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Marubeni is a top-five Japanese trading house, diversified across resources, food, leasing, power, and chemicals.</li>
<li>Management is deploying ~¥1.2tn capex through FY30, tilted toward copper expansion in Chile and renewables growth.</li>
<li>Shares trade at ~11x P/E and 7–8% FCF yield with ~5% cash return yield, offering value on dips below ¥3,000.</li>
</ul>


Marubeni is a top-five Japanese trading house, diversified across resources, food, leasing, power, and chemicals.
Management is deploying ~¥1.2tn capex through FY30, tilted toward copper expansion in Chile and renewables growth.
Shares trade at ~11x P/E and 7–8% FCF yield with ~5% cash return yield, offering value on dips below ¥3,000.


Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/EZx9j" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched</a>, I saw <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>'s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade.</li>
<li>That analysis applied a fixed value for MPIC (delisted in 4Q23). However, if applying a look-through into 23.7%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manila-electric-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3527:1" rel="noopener">Manila Electric Company (MER PM)</a>, that NAV discount widens. Currently ~40%.</li>
<li>By that yardstick this is the narrowest NAV discount since early 2018. This appears too tight. The benefits from the proposed spin-off of Maynilad appear baked in.</li>
</ul>


In StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched, I saw First Pacific Co (142 HK)'s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade.
That analysis applied a fixed value for MPIC (delisted in 4Q23). However, if applying a look-through into 23.7%-held Manila Electric Company (MER PM), that NAV discount widens. Currently ~40%.
By that yardstick this is the narrowest NAV discount since early 2018. This appears too tight. The benefits from the proposed spin-off of Maynilad appear baked in.


First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

<ul>
<li>Mitsui &amp; Co. has delivered robust earnings and cash flows, fueled by commodity tailwinds and disciplined capital returns over the last 5 years.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the company plans to rebalance its portfolio through increased exposure to LNG and energy transition assets </li>
<li>However, muted near-term growth and persistently low ROCE—driven by scattered, low-control holdings—suggest limited upside until newer investments begin contributing meaningfully to the bottom line.</li>
</ul>


Mitsui &amp; Co. has delivered robust earnings and cash flows, fueled by commodity tailwinds and disciplined capital returns over the last 5 years.
Looking ahead, the company plans to rebalance its portfolio through increased exposure to LNG and energy transition assets 
However, muted near-term growth and persistently low ROCE—driven by scattered, low-control holdings—suggest limited upside until newer investments begin contributing meaningfully to the bottom line.


Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift

<ul>
<li>Via 49.9%-held MPIC, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is spinning off Maynilad, a provider of water and wastewater services in the Greater Manila Area, on the Philippine Stock Exchange</li>
<li>Maynilad will tentatively have a market cap of US$2.7bn. Other key investors include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmci-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8026:1" rel="noopener">DMCI Holdings (DMC PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marubeni-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7463:1" rel="noopener">Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)</a>. Listing is expected in July.</li>
<li>I see First Pac's discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade. </li>
</ul>


Via 49.9%-held MPIC, First Pacific Co (142 HK) is spinning off Maynilad, a provider of water and wastewater services in the Greater Manila Area, on the Philippine Stock Exchange
Maynilad will tentatively have a market cap of US$2.7bn. Other key investors include DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) and Marubeni Corp (8002 JP). Listing is expected in July.
I see First Pac's discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade. 


StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched

Japan

MITSUI & CO., LTD. is a general trading company.  The Company has operating groups including Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Foods, Energy, Textiles, and General Merchandise.  Mitsui also operates real estate and overseas development projects.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns

Marubeni is a top-five Japanese trading house, diversified across resources, food, leasing, power, and chemicals. Shares trade at ~11x P/E and 7–8%...

Rahul Jain

First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here

First Pac 's NAV discount has significantly narrowed, and is around the lowest since early 2018. Tight for a multiple cross-border, difficult to...

David Blennerhassett

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift

Mitsui & Co. has strong earnings from commodities, but limited growth due to scattered holdings and low ROCE; plans to focus on LNG and energy...

Rahul Jain

StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched

MPIC's deep value is being extrapolated. However, this development adds yet another listed company. First Pac''s valuations appear full. The...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns

Marubeni is a top-five Japanese trading house, diversified across resources, food, leasing, power, and chemicals. Shares trade at ~11x P/E and 7–8%...

Rahul Jain

First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here

First Pac 's NAV discount has significantly narrowed, and is around the lowest since early 2018. Tight for a multiple cross-border, difficult to...

David Blennerhassett

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift

​Mitsui & Co. has strong earnings from commodities, but limited growth due to scattered holdings and low ROCE; plans to focus on LNG and energy...

Rahul Jain

StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched

MPIC's deep value is being extrapolated. However, this development adds yet another listed company. First Pac''s valuations appear full. The...

David Blennerhassett

Mitsui & Co. has strong earnings from commodities, but limited growth due to scattered holdings and low ROCE; plans to focus on LNG and energy...