Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a> is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.</li>
<li>Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.</li>
<li>The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a> 's IPO valuation discount to its peers, including HK-listed tea-beverage players as well as US-listed China-based coffee-beverage player, suggest a strong potential upside on listing.</li>
<li>US Investor concern over impact of tariffs and caution due to lingering memories of the Luckin Coffee scandal could translate to higher risk premium for the stock.</li>
<li>Expect Chagee to trade at a discount to budget beverage peers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> given its limited room for network expansion within China and likely slower overseas growth.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US) 's IPO valuation discount to its peers, including HK-listed tea-beverage players as well as US-listed China-based coffee-beverage player, suggest a strong potential upside on listing.
US Investor concern over impact of tariffs and caution due to lingering memories of the Luckin Coffee scandal could translate to higher risk premium for the stock.
Expect Chagee to trade at a discount to budget beverage peers like Mixue Group (2097 HK) given its limited room for network expansion within China and likely slower overseas growth.


Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:181653" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:182085" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case and Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Chagee is seeking up to US$411 million by offering nearly 14.7 million ADS priced between US$26 and US$28 each, with market value to reach about US$4.8-US$5.1 billion.</li>
<li>Chagee is facing performance headwinds. Whether the current high growth of Chagee is sustainable in the future is uncertain. This makes us tend to be conservative in Chagee’s valuation expectations </li>
<li>Based on our forecast, P/E is about 11.5-12.3x if based on 2025 net profit. Such valuation is attractive, but "valuation discount" may occur due to market turmoil and geopolitical conflicts.</li>
</ul>


Chagee is seeking up to US$411 million by offering nearly 14.7 million ADS priced between US$26 and US$28 each, with market value to reach about US$4.8-US$5.1 billion.
Chagee is facing performance headwinds. Whether the current high growth of Chagee is sustainable in the future is uncertain. This makes us tend to be conservative in Chagee’s valuation expectations 
Based on our forecast, P/E is about 11.5-12.3x if based on 2025 net profit. Such valuation is attractive, but "valuation discount" may occur due to market turmoil and geopolitical conflicts.


Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform

China

MIXUE Group is a leading company specializing in the development, production, and franchise operation of freshly-made ice cream and tea beverages, including fruit drinks and coffee, under its Mixue and Lucky Cup brands. The company also supplies ingredients, packaging materials, and equipment to its extensive franchisee network. MIXUE Group was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, China.

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MIXUE (2097 HK)

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Chagee is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company up to US$5.2bn. Pricing expected today, listing tomorrow. With Mixue and...

Brian Freitas

Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.

Investors can expect a strong upside on listing despite the backdrop of tariff-related market concerns given Chagee’s IPO is priced at a notable...

Devi Subhakesan

China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to...

Sumeet Singh

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Chagee is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company up to US$5.2bn. Pricing expected today, listing tomorrow. With Mixue and...

Brian Freitas

Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.

Investors can expect a strong upside on listing despite the backdrop of tariff-related market concerns given Chagee’s IPO is priced at a notable...

Devi Subhakesan

China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to...

Sumeet Singh

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform

​Chagee's US IPO is attractively priced, but due to performance headwinds, we are conservative in valuation expectations. Share price may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee's US IPO is attractively priced, but due to performance headwinds, we are conservative in valuation expectations. Share price may...