Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole</li>
<li>Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically</li>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR</li>
</ul>


The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole
Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically
Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR


US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

<ul>
<li>Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits</li>
<li>The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits</li>
<li>Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve</li>
</ul>


Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits
The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits
Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve


US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore for $555M from Blackstone, expanding their real estate portfolio in the region.</li><li>Standard Chartered Marketing Shanghai Office Blocks due to BlackRock default, highlighting the impact of financial decisions on commercial real estate.</li><li>PAG successfully raises $4B for APAC real estate fund, demonstrating investor confidence in the region's property market despite economic uncertainties.</li></ul>

Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore for $555M from Blackstone, expanding their real estate portfolio in the region.Standard Chartered Marketing Shanghai Office Blocks due to BlackRock default, highlighting the impact of financial decisions on commercial real estate.PAG successfully raises $4B for APAC real estate fund, demonstrating investor confidence in the region's property market despite economic uncertainties.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Bain Capital buys worker housing from Blackstone for $555M.

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. </li>
<li>BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.</li>
<li>BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. 
BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.
BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.


[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel decrease. Gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 223 Bcf for the week ending 17/Jan, missing analyst expectations of a 270 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 0.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>J.P. Morgan, HSBC, TD Cowen, Barclays, and Citigroup raised their 12-month PTs on SLB post its Q4 earnings. Halliburton reported a YoY decline in Q4 revenue and EPS.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel decrease. Gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 223 Bcf for the week ending 17/Jan, missing analyst expectations of a 270 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 0.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
J.P. Morgan, HSBC, TD Cowen, Barclays, and Citigroup raised their 12-month PTs on SLB post its Q4 earnings. Halliburton reported a YoY decline in Q4 revenue and EPS.


[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Bain Capital buys worker housing from Blackstone for $555M.

Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore, Standard Chartered faces marketing office blocks default, PAG raises $4B for APAC fund, and PGIM...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Bain Capital buys worker housing from Blackstone for $555M.

Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore, Standard Chartered faces marketing office blocks default, PAG raises $4B for APAC fund, and PGIM...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...

Mint Finance

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...