Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY</li>
<li>The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health</li>
<li>NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations - both are a good view on US economy</li>
</ul>


BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY
The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health
NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations - both are a good view on US economy


BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ</li>
<li>The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth</li>
<li>While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ
The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth
While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these


JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Schlumberger’s Q4 2024 revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% YoY and EPS by 7.1%. For fiscal 2024, revenue is expected to rise 9.3% YoY and EPS by 14.4%.  </li>
<li>SLB surpassed analyst EPS projections for the past four consecutive quarters, despite facing headwinds from lower drilling activity in North America and slowing international expenditures.</li>
<li>SLB completed the construction of the world's first industrial-scale carbon capture facility in Q4. It also enhanced its digital solutions portfolio and secured major contracts for deepwater operations.</li>
</ul>


Schlumberger’s Q4 2024 revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% YoY and EPS by 7.1%. For fiscal 2024, revenue is expected to rise 9.3% YoY and EPS by 14.4%.  
SLB surpassed analyst EPS projections for the past four consecutive quarters, despite facing headwinds from lower drilling activity in North America and slowing international expenditures.
SLB completed the construction of the world's first industrial-scale carbon capture facility in Q4. It also enhanced its digital solutions portfolio and secured major contracts for deepwater operations.


[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.


[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.


[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

BAC is showing most all of its net profit delta in the past year coming from core income, which is positive. Its corporate lending appears strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

US crude inventories fell, but gasoline stocks rose and natural gas inventories beat expectations. Major analysts lowered PTs on Exxon, SLB,...

Mint Finance

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BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

BAC is showing most all of its net profit delta in the past year coming from core income, which is positive. Its corporate lending appears strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

​SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

​US crude inventories fell, but gasoline stocks rose and natural gas inventories beat expectations. Major analysts lowered PTs on Exxon, SLB,...

Mint Finance

SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

US crude inventories fell, but gasoline stocks rose and natural gas inventories beat expectations. Major analysts lowered PTs on Exxon, SLB,...