Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 13/Sep, US crude inventories dropped by 1.6m barrels, surpassing the expected 0.2m barrel decline. Gasoline stockpiles grew less than forecasted, while distillate inventories rose more.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 58 Bcf for the week ending 13/Sep, more than analyst expectations of a 53 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 8.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. DBS Bank initiated a Buy rating on Schlumberger and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 13/Sep, US crude inventories dropped by 1.6m barrels, surpassing the expected 0.2m barrel decline. Gasoline stockpiles grew less than forecasted, while distillate inventories rose more.
US natural gas inventories rise 58 Bcf for the week ending 13/Sep, more than analyst expectations of a 53 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 8.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. DBS Bank initiated a Buy rating on Schlumberger and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/38] Oil Rises on Fed Rate Cut and Geopolitics; Nat-Gas Gains on Warmer Forecasts

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed</li>
<li>With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%</li>
<li>When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction</li>
</ul>


While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed
With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%
When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction


Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

<ul>
<li>The Fed's Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new</li>
<li>JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of 'importance to system' so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest</li>
<li>Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared</li>
</ul>


The Fed's Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new
JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of 'importance to system' so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest
Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared


US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

<ul>
<li>US crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending 12/Jul, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.</li>
<li>As of 12/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>UBS expects Chevron's Q2 earnings to fall short of expectations due to LNG project downtime and lower international refining margins.</li>
</ul>


US crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending 12/Jul, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.
As of 12/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
UBS expects Chevron's Q2 earnings to fall short of expectations due to LNG project downtime and lower international refining margins.


[ETP 29/2024] Oil Rebounds on Inventory Drop; Energy Majors' Targets Cut

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,319 points (10-day EMA)/1,310 points, and the resistance at 1,331 points (50-day EMA) /1,340 points.</li><li>Therefore, we maintain our recommendation that investors gradually sell and take profit, waiting to buy back when there is a new uptrend signal.</li><li>Investment strategy: We recommend stocks with positive issues: TTB, KBANK and AAI.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,319 points (10-day EMA)/1,310 points, and the resistance at 1,331 points (50-day EMA) /1,340 points.Therefore, we maintain our recommendation that investors gradually sell and take profit, waiting to buy back when there is a new uptrend signal.Investment strategy: We recommend stocks with positive issues: TTB, KBANK and AAI.

Keep a Close Watch on US Retail Sales and Corporate Earnings

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

[ETP 2024/38] Oil Rises on Fed Rate Cut and Geopolitics; Nat-Gas Gains on Warmer Forecasts

Oil prices are rising as demand prospects improve. Natural gas prices recovered due to warmer weather forecasts. TotalEnergies received a target...

Mint Finance

Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Real rates are too high in the US and they have been rising sharply. This is likely where the the Fed will need to focus when considering rate...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

New proposals on capital regulations for banks can mean more capital for the largest banks, but there are major differences between the GSIBs.

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 29/2024] Oil Rebounds on Inventory Drop; Energy Majors' Targets Cut

US crude inventories fell for the third straight week, while gasoline and distillate stocks exceeded expectations. US & European gas storage above...

Mint Finance

Keep a Close Watch on US Retail Sales and Corporate Earnings

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,319 points (10-day EMA)/1,310 points, and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

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