Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium</li>
<li>As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies</li>
<li>We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends</li>
</ul>


Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium
As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies
We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends


A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value - Pt 1

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> is trading tight  - perhaps too tight - to terms, as every punter views the deal as a term deposit.</li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>. Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>. Buy dips. Buy big dips post-tender. Future guidance will include synergy effects.</li>
<li>Richard Li's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a> is in the crosshairs as FCC moves to expel the telco from U.S. networks. </li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) is trading tight  - perhaps too tight - to terms, as every punter views the deal as a term deposit.
Be long Welcia Holdings (3141 JP). Be long Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP). Buy dips. Buy big dips post-tender. Future guidance will include synergy effects.
Richard Li's HKT Ltd (6823 HK) is in the crosshairs as FCC moves to expel the telco from U.S. networks. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

<ul>
<li>As discussed in my April note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/206202/%20https:/skr.ma/aXdzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports</a>, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths - to all countries.</li>
<li>Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.</li>
<li>The US recently struck a deal <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a> on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.</li>
</ul>


As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths - to all countries.
Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.</li>
<li>Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.</li>
<li>Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.</li>
</ul>


Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.
Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.
Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.


Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250515/pdf/06jrrv7bzv8wkn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15th May</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peak-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19238:1" rel="noopener">Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU)</a> entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources (600392 CH)</a> @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania. </li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged. </li>
</ul>


On the 15th May, Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.
Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania. 
The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged. 


Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

United States

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

MP Materials Corp (MP US)

A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value - Pt 1

US/Oz have signed The Critical Minerals Framework -commits the countries to invest more than $3 B over 6 months jointly and supports a pipeline of...

Rikki Malik

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths

The US already provides funding for US-based projects. But there appears scope for additional jurisdictions;. That potentially opens the door to...

David Blennerhassett

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

Clean deal. Tanzania's FCC will give the acquisition a hard look; but should give the green light, given Shenghe's offtake agreement. If small...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value - Pt 1

US/Oz have signed The Critical Minerals Framework -commits the countries to invest more than $3 B over 6 months jointly and supports a pipeline of...

Rikki Malik

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths

The US already provides funding for US-based projects. But there appears scope for additional jurisdictions;. That potentially opens the door to...

David Blennerhassett

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

​Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

Clean deal. Tanzania's FCC will give the acquisition a hard look; but should give the green light, given Shenghe's offtake agreement. If small...

David Blennerhassett

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.