Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As discussed in my April note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/206202/%20https:/skr.ma/aXdzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports</a>, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths - to all countries.</li>
<li>Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.</li>
<li>The US recently struck a deal <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a> on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.</li>
</ul>


As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths - to all countries.
Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.</li>
<li>Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.</li>
<li>Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.</li>
</ul>


Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.
Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.
Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.


Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250515/pdf/06jrrv7bzv8wkn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15th May</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peak-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19238:1" rel="noopener">Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU)</a> entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources (600392 CH)</a> @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania. </li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged. </li>
</ul>


On the 15th May, Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.
Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania. 
The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged. 


Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

<ul>
<li>Last week, rare-earth play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. </li>
<li>Gina Rinehart, Lynas' second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. </li>
<li>Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.</li>
</ul>


Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. 
Gina Rinehart, Lynas' second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. 
Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.


Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Tariff chatter is a sideshow; the real focus should be  on the US Administration’s Fed plans</li>
<li>Non-Chinese miners of rare earths and other strategic minerals will command a steep premium.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Tariff chatter is a sideshow; the real focus should be  on the US Administration’s Fed plans
Non-Chinese miners of rare earths and other strategic minerals will command a steep premium.


Overview #30 – the Summer Doldrums-Not! Stage setting for the next phase of the bull market.

United States

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

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MP Materials Corp (MP US)

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths

The US already provides funding for US-based projects. But there appears scope for additional jurisdictions;. That potentially opens the door to...

David Blennerhassett

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

Clean deal. Tanzania's FCC will give the acquisition a hard look; but should give the green light, given Shenghe's offtake agreement. If small...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Lynas is up massively over the past year, and especially recently. Yet as the no 1 rare-earth play outside China - and now very cashed up - it's a...

David Blennerhassett

Overview #30 – the Summer Doldrums-Not! Stage setting for the next phase of the bull market.

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Fed and the implications of DoD's stake in a rare earth...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths

The US already provides funding for US-based projects. But there appears scope for additional jurisdictions;. That potentially opens the door to...

David Blennerhassett

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

​Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

Clean deal. Tanzania's FCC will give the acquisition a hard look; but should give the green light, given Shenghe's offtake agreement. If small...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Lynas is up massively over the past year, and especially recently. Yet as the no 1 rare-earth play outside China - and now very cashed up - it's a...

David Blennerhassett

Overview #30 – the Summer Doldrums-Not! Stage setting for the next phase of the bull market.

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Fed and the implications of DoD's stake in a rare earth...

Rikki Malik

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.