AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.</li>
<li>China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.</li>
<li>While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.


Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul>
<li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (flat).</li>
<li>Energy Technology (13.4% of th  index) was down 3.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.7% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.3%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.8% of the index) was up 0.5%.</li>
<li>
<strong>Top 10 Performers</strong>: TMC, FGPHF, INVZ, GCEH, NXH, MP, WWR, PSIX, OUST, ADSE</li>
</ul>


The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (flat).
Energy Technology (13.4% of th  index) was down 3.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.7% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.3%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.8% of the index) was up 0.5%.

Top 10 Performers: TMC, FGPHF, INVZ, GCEH, NXH, MP, WWR, PSIX, OUST, ADSE


Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on T1 Energy (TE)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rare earth is an important area in the US-China trade negotiation, as China processes 90% of the world's supply, and the US depends on China for 70% of its imports.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-northern-rare-earth-group-high-tech-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13440:1" rel="noopener">China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minmetals-rare-earth-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2083:1" rel="noopener">China Minmetals Rare Earth (000831 CH)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources Holding (600392 CH)</a> are the main listed A-shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jl-mag-rare-earth-co-ltd-71612cf2-8326-48fd-8a92-d5dc0e9fa720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36201:1" rel="noopener">JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-rare-earth-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12729:1" rel="noopener">China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK)</a> are the key Hong Kong-listed ones. They all witnessed better YoY profit in the latest reported results.</li>
</ul>


Rare earth is an important area in the US-China trade negotiation, as China processes 90% of the world's supply, and the US depends on China for 70% of its imports.

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH), China Minmetals Rare Earth (000831 CH), and Shenghe Resources Holding (600392 CH) are the main listed A-shares.

JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680 HK) and China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK) are the key Hong Kong-listed ones. They all witnessed better YoY profit in the latest reported results.


China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths. Not just to the US as the two global players go toe-to-toe on tariffs; but to all countries.</li>
<li>China’s latest round of restrictions target critical materials used in defense, electronics, and EVs.</li>
<li>Apart from China, the world's largest refining - not just the largest miner - who else refines rare earth elements, specifically heavy rare earths?</li>
</ul>


China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths. Not just to the US as the two global players go toe-to-toe on tariffs; but to all countries.
China’s latest round of restrictions target critical materials used in defense, electronics, and EVs.
Apart from China, the world's largest refining - not just the largest miner - who else refines rare earth elements, specifically heavy rare earths?


Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38824:1" rel="noopener">Standard Lithium (SLI US)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close of trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle (ALB US)</a> while there will be outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Standard Lithium (SLI US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close of trading on 21 March.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.
The largest inflows will be in Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Albemarle (ALB US) while there will be outflows from MP Materials (MP US) and Lynas Corp (LYC AU).


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

United States

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

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MP Materials Corp (MP US)

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Mint Finance

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on T1 Energy (TE)

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (flat).

Water Tower Research

China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports

As the world largest non-PRC rare-earth refiner, don't bet against Lynas as a strategic long-term supplier of critical materials in modern energy,...

David Blennerhassett

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

Standard Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% results in a round-trip trade of US$61m. Pilbara Minerals is a passive buy...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

​Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Mint Finance

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on T1 Energy (TE)

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (flat).

Water Tower Research

China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

​US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports

As the world largest non-PRC rare-earth refiner, don't bet against Lynas as a strategic long-term supplier of critical materials in modern energy,...

David Blennerhassett

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

Standard Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% results in a round-trip trade of US$61m. Pilbara Minerals is a passive buy...

Brian Freitas

Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes