Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index / Commodities

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index (MVREMX INDEX)

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index

<ul>
<li>NdPr is the key rare earth signal because it links directly to magnets, EVs, robotics, wind and defence demand.</li>
<li>China’s dominance in refining, quotas and magnet production allows it to tighten and stabilise supply faster than the West can rebuild alternative ecosystems.</li>
<li>FOB export premiums and policy-driven procurement show rising geoeconomic stress, but sustained scarcity still requires durable ex-China downstream profitability.</li>
</ul>


NdPr is the key rare earth signal because it links directly to magnets, EVs, robotics, wind and defence demand.
China’s dominance in refining, quotas and magnet production allows it to tighten and stabilise supply faster than the West can rebuild alternative ecosystems.
FOB export premiums and policy-driven procurement show rising geoeconomic stress, but sustained scarcity still requires durable ex-China downstream profitability.


Rare Earths: China Still Scales Faster Than the West Can Rebuild

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.</li>
<li>RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight</li>
<li>We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.
RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight
We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.


Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's April 2025 licensing regime on seven heavy rare earths gave Beijing per-shipment veto power over the global magnet supply chain, with zero approved Indian import requests by mid-2025.</li>
<li>Rare earth magnets underpin every EV motor, wind turbine, and defense platform. China controls 94% of global magnet production, and its expansion plans alone dwarf the entire Western build-out.</li>
<li>India's Rs 7,280 crore magnet scheme RFP closes May 28, 2026. The pre-bid conference on April 7 will surface who is credibly bidding, potentially creating India's first listed rare earth.</li>
</ul>


China's April 2025 licensing regime on seven heavy rare earths gave Beijing per-shipment veto power over the global magnet supply chain, with zero approved Indian import requests by mid-2025.
Rare earth magnets underpin every EV motor, wind turbine, and defense platform. China controls 94% of global magnet production, and its expansion plans alone dwarf the entire Western build-out.
India's Rs 7,280 crore magnet scheme RFP closes May 28, 2026. The pre-bid conference on April 7 will surface who is credibly bidding, potentially creating India's first listed rare earth.


The Magnet Wars: China's Rare Earth Chokehold and India's Decade-Long Catch-Up

<ul>
<li>We are shifting our near-term outlook to neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>Choppy consolidation has continued between support at 6780-6824 and resistance at 7000, and a neutral near-term outlook is appropriate until there is a decisive break in either direction.</li>
<li>We intended to wait for SPX to break below 6780 to downgrade our near-term outlook, continued deterioration in market dynamics suggests a breakout above 7000 is unlikely</li>
</ul>


We are shifting our near-term outlook to neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
Choppy consolidation has continued between support at 6780-6824 and resistance at 7000, and a neutral near-term outlook is appropriate until there is a decisive break in either direction.
We intended to wait for SPX to break below 6780 to downgrade our near-term outlook, continued deterioration in market dynamics suggests a breakout above 7000 is unlikely


Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, DXY, Etc

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Tariff chatter is a sideshow; the real focus should be  on the US Administration’s Fed plans</li>
<li>Non-Chinese miners of rare earths and other strategic minerals will command a steep premium.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Tariff chatter is a sideshow; the real focus should be  on the US Administration’s Fed plans
Non-Chinese miners of rare earths and other strategic minerals will command a steep premium.


Overview #30 – the Summer Doldrums-Not! Stage setting for the next phase of the bull market.

United States

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

MP Materials Corp (MP US)

Rare Earths: China Still Scales Faster Than the West Can Rebuild

China still controls rare earth refining, quotas and magnets, allowing it to stabilise supply faster than the West can rebuild independent capacity.

Duncan Chan

Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Upgrading Technology $XLK to Overweight; Adding on Pullbacks. $NVDA $MU $CRWD $CDNS $CRML $UAMY $MP $LAC $SLB $BKR $HAL $ANDE $REX $GPRE $ALTO

Vermilion Research

The Magnet Wars: China's Rare Earth Chokehold and India's Decade-Long Catch-Up

China's licensing regime on rare earths gives Beijing control over global magnet supply chain, with India's magnet scheme aiming to create...

Nimish Maheshwari

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, DXY, Etc

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, MOVE index, DXY, Commodities All Rising $DJP $USO $UGA....

Vermilion Research

Overview #30 – the Summer Doldrums-Not! Stage setting for the next phase of the bull market.

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Fed and the implications of DoD's stake in a rare earth...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rare Earths: China Still Scales Faster Than the West Can Rebuild

China still controls rare earth refining, quotas and magnets, allowing it to stabilise supply faster than the West can rebuild independent capacity.

Duncan Chan

Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Upgrading Technology $XLK to Overweight; Adding on Pullbacks. $NVDA $MU $CRWD $CDNS $CRML $UAMY $MP $LAC $SLB $BKR $HAL $ANDE $REX $GPRE $ALTO

Vermilion Research

The Magnet Wars: China's Rare Earth Chokehold and India's Decade-Long Catch-Up

​China's licensing regime on rare earths gives Beijing control over global magnet supply chain, with India's magnet scheme aiming to create...

Nimish Maheshwari

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, DXY, Etc

Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, MOVE index, DXY, Commodities All Rising $DJP $USO $UGA....

Vermilion Research

Overview #30 – the Summer Doldrums-Not! Stage setting for the next phase of the bull market.

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Fed and the implications of DoD's stake in a rare earth...

Rikki Malik

China's licensing regime on rare earths gives Beijing control over global magnet supply chain, with India's magnet scheme aiming to create...