HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rare earth is an important area in the US-China trade negotiation, as China processes 90% of the world's supply, and the US depends on China for 70% of its imports.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-northern-rare-earth-group-high-tech-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13440:1" rel="noopener">China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minmetals-rare-earth-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2083:1" rel="noopener">China Minmetals Rare Earth (000831 CH)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources Holding (600392 CH)</a> are the main listed A-shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jl-mag-rare-earth-co-ltd-71612cf2-8326-48fd-8a92-d5dc0e9fa720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36201:1" rel="noopener">JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-rare-earth-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12729:1" rel="noopener">China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK)</a> are the key Hong Kong-listed ones. They all witnessed better YoY profit in the latest reported results.</li>
</ul>


Rare earth is an important area in the US-China trade negotiation, as China processes 90% of the world's supply, and the US depends on China for 70% of its imports.

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH), China Minmetals Rare Earth (000831 CH), and Shenghe Resources Holding (600392 CH) are the main listed A-shares.

JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680 HK) and China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK) are the key Hong Kong-listed ones. They all witnessed better YoY profit in the latest reported results.


China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.</li>
<li>IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.</li>
<li>By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.</li>
</ul>


Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.
IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.
By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.


Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended April 21, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 7.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 0.4%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (67.2% of the index) contributed to the index underperformance, falling 10.2%, while Energy Technology (8.3% of the index) was down 4.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.5%.</li><li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 27.6x versus 18.9x for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended April 21, 2023, there were four increases (three in Energy Technology, and one in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates.</li></ul>

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended April 21, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 7.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 0.4%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (67.2% of the index) contributed to the index underperformance, falling 10.2%, while Energy Technology (8.3% of the index) was down 4.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.5%.Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 27.6x versus 18.9x for the S&amp;P 500.Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended April 21, 2023, there were four increases (three in Energy Technology, and one in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 21, 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 20th July 2026, an US executive order was issued requiring major arms manufacturers to trace their  supply chains and actively phase out Chinese rare earths.</li>
<li>A week later, the FT carried an article on hedge funds increasing their bets against US critical minerals companies.</li>
<li>Given the US-Australia bilateral framework targeting critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S., it is worthwhile analysing the bets, if any, against Aussie critical minerals companies. </li>
</ul>


On the 20th July 2026, an US executive order was issued requiring major arms manufacturers to trace their  supply chains and actively phase out Chinese rare earths.
A week later, the FT carried an article on hedge funds increasing their bets against US critical minerals companies.
Given the US-Australia bilateral framework targeting critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S., it is worthwhile analysing the bets, if any, against Aussie critical minerals companies. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Australian Strategic Materials / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a> IE opinion is unchanged that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-fuels-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12230:1" rel="noopener">Energy Fuels (UUUU US)</a>’s offer (A$0.13 cash and 0.053 UUUU shares per ASM share) is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to production delays at KMP.</li>
<li>The scheme vote remains low risk. At the last close and for a 28 August payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/8.2%.</li>
</ul>


The Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) IE opinion is unchanged that Energy Fuels (UUUU US)’s offer (A$0.13 cash and 0.053 UUUU shares per ASM share) is fair and reasonable.
The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to production delays at KMP.
The scheme vote remains low risk. At the last close and for a 28 August payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/8.2%.


Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Revised Scheme Vote on 12 August

United States

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

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MP Materials Corp (MP US)

China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Two in three Americans know little about IRA. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) took years in the making and will have material implications...

Mint Finance

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 21, 2023

During the week ended April 21, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 7.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Betting Against Aussie Critical Minerals

PLS, which specialises in lithium exploration and production, does appear toppish. I still like Lynas, the only significant commercial producer of...

David Blennerhassett

Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Revised Scheme Vote on 12 August

The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths - What and How?

​US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Two in three Americans know little about IRA. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) took years in the making and will have material implications...

Mint Finance

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 21, 2023

During the week ended April 21, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 7.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Betting Against Aussie Critical Minerals

PLS, which specialises in lithium exploration and production, does appear toppish. I still like Lynas, the only significant commercial producer of...

David Blennerhassett

Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): Revised Scheme Vote on 12 August

The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to...

Arun George

US-China trade negotiation is heavily influenced by rare earths, with China processing 90% of the global supply and the US relying on China for...