Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This being a "political-transition" year, with President Xi Jinping seeking re-selection in Oct-Nov'22 for another 5 years, real GDP growth is targeted at 5.5% but will likely be slower.</li>
<li>Two RRR cuts (Jul'21, Dec'21) and an LPR cut (Jan'22) enabled TSF to expand 19.3% faster in Jan'22 than any previous month. This boosted FAI by 12.2%YoY in Jan-Feb'22. </li>
<li>Serial lockdowns in Shenzhen, Shenyang, Jilin, Shanghai will constrain growth in Mar'22, likely eating into 2Q2022 as well. IMF forecast of 4.8% likelier than government's 5.5% aim. </li>
</ul>


This being a "political-transition" year, with President Xi Jinping seeking re-selection in Oct-Nov'22 for another 5 years, real GDP growth is targeted at 5.5% but will likely be slower.
Two RRR cuts (Jul'21, Dec'21) and an LPR cut (Jan'22) enabled TSF to expand 19.3% faster in Jan'22 than any previous month. This boosted FAI by 12.2%YoY in Jan-Feb'22. 
Serial lockdowns in Shenzhen, Shenyang, Jilin, Shanghai will constrain growth in Mar'22, likely eating into 2Q2022 as well. IMF forecast of 4.8% likelier than government's 5.5% aim. 


Covid Stalls the TSF-Fuelled Cyclical Rebound in the Political-Transition Year

<ul>
<li>China's M2 has expanded 5-fold since Aug2008, while the US's M2 has expanded just 2.5-fold. Yet China cut RRR by 100bp this year, and lowered its LPR too. </li>
<li>In May-Nov2021, FAI (fixed asset investment) declined by an average of 3.2% YoY. Retail sales decelerated from 24% YoY growth in 1H21, to 5.1%YoY in 3Q21 and 4.4%YoY in Oct-Nov21. </li>
<li>Booming external trade took the trade surplus to a record US$595bn in Jan-Nov21, but foreign reserves were up by just US$5bn. Capital flight constrains the ability to ease more. </li>
</ul>


China's M2 has expanded 5-fold since Aug2008, while the US's M2 has expanded just 2.5-fold. Yet China cut RRR by 100bp this year, and lowered its LPR too. 
In May-Nov2021, FAI (fixed asset investment) declined by an average of 3.2% YoY. Retail sales decelerated from 24% YoY growth in 1H21, to 5.1%YoY in 3Q21 and 4.4%YoY in Oct-Nov21. 
Booming external trade took the trade surplus to a record US$595bn in Jan-Nov21, but foreign reserves were up by just US$5bn. Capital flight constrains the ability to ease more. 


China's Monetary Easing Will Do Little to Counter a Structural Slowdown

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

<ul>
<li>In the absence of an outright LPR cut later this month, the latest RRR move's impact on the real economy may be rather modest. </li>
<li>Assuming CNY500bn of MLFs will be withdrawn in the coming months, the net injection this time around is CNY700bn, about 40% of an average month's new loans.</li>
<li>We would watch out for a potential bubble in the onshore credit market before incremental liquidity benefits the broader economy.</li>
</ul>


In the absence of an outright LPR cut later this month, the latest RRR move's impact on the real economy may be rather modest. 
Assuming CNY500bn of MLFs will be withdrawn in the coming months, the net injection this time around is CNY700bn, about 40% of an average month's new loans.
We would watch out for a potential bubble in the onshore credit market before incremental liquidity benefits the broader economy.


China Macro: RRR Cuts' Diminishing Impact

China's economy was virtually stagnant in September, and real GDP grew just 0.2% QoQ in 3Q 2021 as YoY growth slowed to 4.9% (from 7.9% in the previous quarter). Industrial output grew just 3.1% YoY and 0.1% MoM in September, while fixed asset investment (FAI), long the key driver of China's economic activity, declined 5.5% YoY in September 2021 (and fell 3.3% YoY in 3Q 2021). With rising political uncertainty, and heightened risk of expropriation of foreign bond-holders and successful local billionaires, real GDP is likely to contract QoQ in 4Q 2021, and grow just 3% YoY, as China's FAI finally declines after two decades of over-investment. 
With global trade volume slated to grow 10.8% in 2021 (twice the pace of global real GDP growth), China has one key remaining economic strength: like the rest of Asia, China's export sector remains robust. While imports too are growing (to feed import-intensive exports), slumping FAI will cause trade surpluses to widen in 4Q 2021. However, foreign reserves are likely to continue edging lower as capital flight accelerates. 
China's foreign reserves are down this year despite consistently large monthly trade surpluses -- and foreign reserves have been largely unchanged since 1Q 2016 despite large annual trade surpluses. In September 2021, net capital and services/income outflows were US$98 billion (the largest monthly outflow since capital controls were tightened in November 2016). In Jan-Sep 2021, net outflows have swelled to US$455 billion (much larger than the US$290 billion of net outflows in Jan-Sep 2020). If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> or its affiliate defaults on its foreign bonds (while local bond holders were paid last month), the discriminatory treatment is likely to spur larger capital outflows, and a flight from Chinese foreign-currency paper. We recommend staying Underweight China.

China's economy was virtually stagnant in September, and real GDP grew just 0.2% QoQ in 3Q 2021 as YoY growth slowed to 4.9% (from 7.9% in the previous quarter). Industrial output grew just 3.1% YoY and 0.1% MoM in September, while fixed asset investment (FAI), long the key driver of China's economic activity, declined 5.5% YoY in September 2021 (and fell 3.3% YoY in 3Q 2021). With rising political uncertainty, and heightened risk of expropriation of foreign bond-holders and successful local billionaires, real GDP is likely to contract QoQ in 4Q 2021, and grow just 3% YoY, as China's FAI finally declines after two decades of over-investment. 
With global trade volume slated to grow 10.8% in 2021 (twice the pace of global real GDP growth), China has one key remaining economic strength: like the rest of Asia, China's export sector remains robust. While imports too are growing (to feed import-intensive exports), slumping FAI will cause trade surpluses to widen in 4Q 2021. However, foreign reserves are likely to continue edging lower as capital flight accelerates. 
China's foreign reserves are down this year despite consistently large monthly trade surpluses -- and foreign reserves have been largely unchanged since 1Q 2016 despite large annual trade surpluses. In September 2021, net capital and services/income outflows were US$98 billion (the largest monthly outflow since capital controls were tightened in November 2016). In Jan-Sep 2021, net outflows have swelled to US$455 billion (much larger than the US$290 billion of net outflows in Jan-Sep 2020). If Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) or its affiliate defaults on its foreign bonds (while local bond holders were paid last month), the discriminatory treatment is likely to spur larger capital outflows, and a flight from Chinese foreign-currency paper. We recommend staying Underweight China.  

China: Succumbing to Excess Capacity in Industry and Real-Estate, & Capital Flight

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China domestic activity indicators are weakening and missed expectations in August. Retail sales growth decelerated sharply to 2.5% year-over-year, vs 8.5% in July. Industrial production also slowed to 5.3% year-over-year, vs 6.4% in July. The most concerning development is in the property market. After housing activity turned significantly more negative from June to July, August registered another sequential declines in housing starts and property sales . <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> has retreated around 23% from its peak in February 2021. China market performance has been subdued given the resurge of COVID-19 cases, some property developers' credit risk and the uncertainty on policies.</li>
<li>We expect there will be some monetary stimulus policies to stabilize the economy.  Beijing has released a series of rules aiming to remake private education and tech sectors. to curb cost pressure and better serve ordinary people. The magnitude of policy change on these sectors is unprecedent. And the visibility of these changes remains clouded. But for short-term efforts, monetary tools, such as MLF (medium-term lending facility), could be utilized to inject liquidity into the market. </li>
<li>On financial innovation front, we have observed some breakthrough activities. 1) The long-awaited China A-share Index future finally received approval from regulators. The to-be-launched MSCI China A50 Connect Index will be a game changer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> derivative business as investors' increasing exposure in China A-share cash equity market and index future. 2) China also announced that a new stock exchange will soon be launched in Beijing. The new exchange will initially be formed by a subset of National Equity Exchange and Quotations (China OTC market) which has been in place since 2013. But Beijing Stock Exchange has ambition to grow into a venue for high-tech and high-growth companies.  </li>
</ul>


China domestic activity indicators are weakening and missed expectations in August. Retail sales growth decelerated sharply to 2.5% year-over-year, vs 8.5% in July. Industrial production also slowed to 5.3% year-over-year, vs 6.4% in July. The most concerning development is in the property market. After housing activity turned significantly more negative from June to July, August registered another sequential declines in housing starts and property sales . Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has retreated around 23% from its peak in February 2021. China market performance has been subdued given the resurge of COVID-19 cases, some property developers' credit risk and the uncertainty on policies.
We expect there will be some monetary stimulus policies to stabilize the economy.  Beijing has released a series of rules aiming to remake private education and tech sectors. to curb cost pressure and better serve ordinary people. The magnitude of policy change on these sectors is unprecedent. And the visibility of these changes remains clouded. But for short-term efforts, monetary tools, such as MLF (medium-term lending facility), could be utilized to inject liquidity into the market. 
On financial innovation front, we have observed some breakthrough activities. 1) The long-awaited China A-share Index future finally received approval from regulators. The to-be-launched MSCI China A50 Connect Index will be a game changer for HKEX (388 HK) derivative business as investors' increasing exposure in China A-share cash equity market and index future. 2) China also announced that a new stock exchange will soon be launched in Beijing. The new exchange will initially be formed by a subset of National Equity Exchange and Quotations (China OTC market) which has been in place since 2013. But Beijing Stock Exchange has ambition to grow into a venue for high-tech and high-growth companies.  


China Equity Strategy: Growth Slowdown Risk, Potential Monetary Stimulus

China

The MSCI China Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1992.

MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)

Covid Stalls the TSF-Fuelled Cyclical Rebound in the Political-Transition Year

TSF surged 7% more in Jan-Feb22 than ever before, so FAI grew 12.2%YoY in Jan-Feb22. Serial lockdowns in key export & financial hubs will erode...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China's Monetary Easing Will Do Little to Counter a Structural Slowdown

China's M2 grew 5-fold since Aug08 (vs 2.5-fold for the US), but China cut RRR 100bp in 2021. FAI fell 3.2%YoY in 2H21, but capital flight of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China Macro: RRR Cuts' Diminishing Impact

In the absence of an LPR cut, the impact of the latest RRR move may be limited. We estimate that net of MLF maturities, the liquidity boost is...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China: Succumbing to Excess Capacity in Industry and Real-Estate, & Capital Flight

China's economy was stagnant in Sep21 as FAI contracted 5.5%YoY (-3.3% in 3Q). Real GDP will decelerate to 3%YoY in 4Q21. Capital flight will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China Equity Strategy: Growth Slowdown Risk, Potential Monetary Stimulus

China activity indicators are weakening and missed expectations in August. We expect there will be some monetary stimulus to stabilize the economic...

Roger Xie