Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.</li>
<li>However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.</li>
<li>There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.</li>
</ul>


Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.
However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.
There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.


Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

<ul>
<li>We estimate that Nanya Technology has the highest level of net cash as a percent of its market cap in its history and it is trading well below 1x PBV.</li>
<li>The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when Nanya Tech has traded below 1.0x PBV.</li>
<li>Micron's results this Thursday will provide color on Nanya's outlook and could be a catalyst.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that Nanya Technology has the highest level of net cash as a percent of its market cap in its history and it is trading well below 1x PBV.
The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when Nanya Tech has traded below 1.0x PBV.
Micron's results this Thursday will provide color on Nanya's outlook and could be a catalyst.


Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology's results missed expectations last week, showing a sharp decline in margin, underperforming the recent results performance of Micron &amp; SK Hynix.</li>
<li>The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron &amp; SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and lacking High Bandwith Memory DRAM.</li>
<li>Nevertheless the company is cautiously reporting an improving environment and improved customer inventory levels, hence we believe the result still implies an improving memory industry pricing environment into year end.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology's results missed expectations last week, showing a sharp decline in margin, underperforming the recent results performance of Micron &amp; SK Hynix.
The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron &amp; SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and lacking High Bandwith Memory DRAM.
Nevertheless the company is cautiously reporting an improving environment and improved customer inventory levels, hence we believe the result still implies an improving memory industry pricing environment into year end.


Nanya Tech: Sharply Worse Margin Performance Than Micron & SK Hynix, But Supports Memory Recovery

<ul>
<li>We visited Micron's advanced A3 semiconductor fab in Taichung, Taiwan last Friday. Micron is committed to expanding leading edge capacity in Taiwan.</li>
<li>Memory names rallied sharply at the end of last week after SK Hynix affirmed that 1Q23 was the cycle bottom and AI-driven DRAM demand was accelerating its recovery.</li>
<li>We reiterate our Nanya Long trade and believe it can now run further given improving industry signals. Nanya presents pure-play exposure to a DRAM turn-around accelerated by AI demand.</li>
</ul>


We visited Micron's advanced A3 semiconductor fab in Taichung, Taiwan last Friday. Micron is committed to expanding leading edge capacity in Taiwan.
Memory names rallied sharply at the end of last week after SK Hynix affirmed that 1Q23 was the cycle bottom and AI-driven DRAM demand was accelerating its recovery.
We reiterate our Nanya Long trade and believe it can now run further given improving industry signals. Nanya presents pure-play exposure to a DRAM turn-around accelerated by AI demand.


Memory Monitor: Our Site Visit to Micron's A3 Fab in Taiwan; AI Accelerating the Cycle Recovery

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech management extrapolated on their recent results call that they believe 2Q23 was the bottom for the DRAM cycle.</li>
<li>We've updated our Nanya Tech financial model and estimates; we still see a short-term trade back to Nanya Tech's mid-June high. However, Elan Microelectronics is a Long with more edge.</li>
<li>While Nanya's comments indicated a more delayed recovery for Memory than Micron's recent guidance, overall the industry for Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung appears to be turning a corner.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech management extrapolated on their recent results call that they believe 2Q23 was the bottom for the DRAM cycle.
We've updated our Nanya Tech financial model and estimates; we still see a short-term trade back to Nanya Tech's mid-June high. However, Elan Microelectronics is a Long with more edge.
While Nanya's comments indicated a more delayed recovery for Memory than Micron's recent guidance, overall the industry for Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung appears to be turning a corner.


Memory Monitor: Nanya Management Provides More Color on DRAM Cycle Bottom; Elan a Long W/ More Edge

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Margin guidance implies Nanya Tech and Micron consensus numbers need to be reduced significantly, but Micron management comments provide positive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when the company has traded below 1.0x PBV. Net cash to market...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech: Sharply Worse Margin Performance Than Micron & SK Hynix, But Supports Memory Recovery

The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron and SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Our Site Visit to Micron's A3 Fab in Taiwan; AI Accelerating the Cycle Recovery

Memory names rallied sharply at the end of last week after SK Hynix affirmed that 1Q23 was the cycle bottom and AI-driven DRAM demand was...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Nanya Management Provides More Color on DRAM Cycle Bottom; Elan a Long W/ More Edge

While Nanya's comments indicated a more delayed recovery for Memory than Micron's recent guidance, overall the industry for Micron, SK Hynix, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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