Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them.</li>
<li>His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is ready to roll out a series of initiatives next week, including those on trade, cryptocurrency, and a range of other topics.</li>
<li>Every counterpart we speak to expects Trump to take action over the course of his presidency but also anticipates him backing down if the market pushes back against tariffs with a stronger USD, higher bond yields, and weaker risk sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them.
His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is ready to roll out a series of initiatives next week, including those on trade, cryptocurrency, and a range of other topics.
Every counterpart we speak to expects Trump to take action over the course of his presidency but also anticipates him backing down if the market pushes back against tariffs with a stronger USD, higher bond yields, and weaker risk sentiment.


The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the first time in six weeks, as it fell by 5 to 584 for the week ending 10/Jan.</li>
<li>For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.56m bpd from 13.57m bpd the week prior.</li>
<li>U.S. oil rig count fell by 2 to 482 while gas rigs dropped by 3 to 100. Producers cut three rigs in Texas and one each from Utah and Colorado.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the first time in six weeks, as it fell by 5 to 584 for the week ending 10/Jan.
For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.56m bpd from 13.57m bpd the week prior.
U.S. oil rig count fell by 2 to 482 while gas rigs dropped by 3 to 100. Producers cut three rigs in Texas and one each from Utah and Colorado.


U.S. Rig Count Drops After Remaining Steady for Four Straight Weeks

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.


[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

<ul>
<li>The U.S. oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the fourth straight week at 589 for the week ending on 03/Jan.</li>
<li>For the week ending 27/Dec, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.57m bpd from 13.59m bpd the week prior.</li>
<li>The U.S. oil rig count declined by one to 482, while active gas rigs increased by one to 103. Producers added one rig in Texas and cut one in Louisiana.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the fourth straight week at 589 for the week ending on 03/Jan.
For the week ending 27/Dec, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.57m bpd from 13.59m bpd the week prior.
The U.S. oil rig count declined by one to 482, while active gas rigs increased by one to 103. Producers added one rig in Texas and cut one in Louisiana.


U.S. Rig Count Steady for the Fourth Consecutive Week

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 27/Dec, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.2m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.4m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 116 Bcf for the week ending 27/Dec, missing analyst expectations of a 127 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>JP Morgan lowered its 12-month PT for Halliburton and Schlumberger but maintained its “Overweight” ratings. Saudi Aramco revised fuel and natural gas prices for cement production starting from 01/Jan.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 27/Dec, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.2m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.4m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 116 Bcf for the week ending 27/Dec, missing analyst expectations of a 127 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
JP Morgan lowered its 12-month PT for Halliburton and Schlumberger but maintained its “Overweight” ratings. Saudi Aramco revised fuel and natural gas prices for cement production starting from 01/Jan.


[ETP 2025/01] WTI Rises on Improved Chinese Outlook, Henry Hub Reverses Uptrend

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them. His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is...

Steno Research

U.S. Rig Count Drops After Remaining Steady for Four Straight Weeks

US oil and gas rig count drops for the first time in six weeks, with oil production also slightly decreasing. Number of active U.S. oil and gas...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

Mint Finance

U.S. Rig Count Steady for the Fourth Consecutive Week

US oil and gas rig count holds steady, with slight decrease in oil production and shifts in rig activity between states.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/01] WTI Rises on Improved Chinese Outlook, Henry Hub Reverses Uptrend

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Natural gas inventories also fell below expectations....

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them. His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is...

Steno Research

U.S. Rig Count Drops After Remaining Steady for Four Straight Weeks

​US oil and gas rig count drops for the first time in six weeks, with oil production also slightly decreasing. Number of active U.S. oil and gas...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

Mint Finance

U.S. Rig Count Steady for the Fourth Consecutive Week

​US oil and gas rig count holds steady, with slight decrease in oil production and shifts in rig activity between states.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/01] WTI Rises on Improved Chinese Outlook, Henry Hub Reverses Uptrend

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Natural gas inventories also fell below expectations....

Mint Finance

US oil and gas rig count drops for the first time in six weeks, with oil production also slightly decreasing. Number of active U.S. oil and gas...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

US oil and gas rig count holds steady, with slight decrease in oil production and shifts in rig activity between states.

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Natural gas inventories also fell below expectations....