European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos generally tightened during July and first week of August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 45.3% (vs. 44.5% as of end of June); </li>
<li>GBL, 42.2% (vs. 43.6%); Heineken Holding, 16% (vs. 18.4%); Industrivärden C, 2.2% (vs. 2.4%); Investor B, 7.5% (vs. 9.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 34.6% (vs. 35.8%), Porsche SE reports 13 August. </li>
<li>Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.1% (vs. 20.7%). What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos generally tightened during July and first week of August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 45.3% (vs. 44.5% as of end of June); 
GBL, 42.2% (vs. 43.6%); Heineken Holding, 16% (vs. 18.4%); Industrivärden C, 2.2% (vs. 2.4%); Investor B, 7.5% (vs. 9.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 34.6% (vs. 35.8%), Porsche SE reports 13 August. 
Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.1% (vs. 20.7%). What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July-Aug. 9 '24 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 44.5% (vs. 46.8%); GBL, 43.6% (vs. 42.9%); Heineken Holding, 18.4% (vs. 18.3%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 2.4% (vs. 2.5%); Investor B, 9.9% (vs. 12%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.8% (vs. 35.3%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.7% (vs. 23%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 44.5% (vs. 46.8%); GBL, 43.6% (vs. 42.9%); Heineken Holding, 18.4% (vs. 18.3%); 
Industrivärden C, 2.4% (vs. 2.5%); Investor B, 9.9% (vs. 12%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.8% (vs. 35.3%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.7% (vs. 23%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Palliser/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.</li>
<li>On the subject of activism, keep an eye on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a>'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.</li>
<li>A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. </li>
</ul>


The Palliser/Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs Oriental Land (4661 JP) except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.
On the subject of activism, keep an eye on China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.
A Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abu-dhabi-national-energy-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41670:1" rel="noopener">Abu Dhabi National Energy (TAQA UH)</a> has unexpectedly withdrawn from negotiations to launch a takeover bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a> with CriteriaCaixa.</li>
<li>Criteria may continue to explore other options. CriteriaCaixa and IFM may reconcile. IFM could offer a solution for the exit of CVC and GIP, could potentially increase its stake.</li>
<li>A joint offer from CriteriaCaixa and IFM could well happen. At the current price, I would be long Naturgy, plus one gets paid to wait. Dividend yield is 6.6%.</li>
</ul>



Abu Dhabi National Energy (TAQA UH) has unexpectedly withdrawn from negotiations to launch a takeover bid for Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) with CriteriaCaixa.
Criteria may continue to explore other options. CriteriaCaixa and IFM may reconcile. IFM could offer a solution for the exit of CVC and GIP, could potentially increase its stake.
A joint offer from CriteriaCaixa and IFM could well happen. At the current price, I would be long Naturgy, plus one gets paid to wait. Dividend yield is 6.6%.


<ul>
<li>The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.8% (vs. 49.1%); GBL, 42.9% (vs. 39%); Heineken Holding, 18.3% (vs. 17.3%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 2.5% (vs. 4.7%); Investor B, 12% (vs. 8.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.3% (vs. 41.1%). Rio DLC spread widened to 23% (vs. 22.5%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.8% (vs. 49.1%); GBL, 42.9% (vs. 39%); Heineken Holding, 18.3% (vs. 17.3%); 
Industrivärden C, 2.5% (vs. 4.7%); Investor B, 12% (vs. 8.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.3% (vs. 41.1%). Rio DLC spread widened to 23% (vs. 22.5%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May'24 Report

Spain

Naturgy Energy Group S.A. distributes natural gas. The Company operates gas storage facilities, as well as owns and operates a fiber optic backbone telecommunications networks. Naturgy Energy Group also markets energy management products, household gas appliances, and installs gas heating systems. Naturgy Energy serves clients worldwide.

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Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July-Aug. 9 '24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos generally tightened during July and first week of August. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

It's a No Deal, But...

Abu Dhabi National Energy (TAQA UH) has unexpectedly withdrawn from negotiations to launch a takeover bid for Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May'24 Report

The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during May. Half of them widened while the other half tightened.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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