Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at the global macro themes that are impacting the equity market including the US election, the Fed and China's latest rate cut</li>
<li>We also look at the latest condition in Hong Kong, including the rates, the economy and the physical RE market</li>
<li>HK RE stocks continue to trade at compelling valuation, but fund flows are needed if we want a re-rating</li>
</ul>


We look at the global macro themes that are impacting the equity market including the US election, the Fed and China's latest rate cut
We also look at the latest condition in Hong Kong, including the rates, the economy and the physical RE market
HK RE stocks continue to trade at compelling valuation, but fund flows are needed if we want a re-rating


HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>When property advisors (JLL, Knight Frank, CBRE etc) debate the bottom of Hong Kong's office/retail market, such commentary is often infused with cautious optimism. </li>
<li>And for good reason, as vacancies increase, and rents soften.</li>
<li>Recent press articles and anecdotal evidence suggests market uncertainty lingers, prompting  landlords to (further) assess their stance on rents.</li>
</ul>


When property advisors (JLL, Knight Frank, CBRE etc) debate the bottom of Hong Kong's office/retail market, such commentary is often infused with cautious optimism. 
And for good reason, as vacancies increase, and rents soften.
Recent press articles and anecdotal evidence suggests market uncertainty lingers, prompting  landlords to (further) assess their stance on rents.


Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. </li>
<li>Heavy-Weights like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.</li>
</ul>


Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. 
Heavy-Weights like Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and ENN Energy (2688 HK) are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.


HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

<ul>
<li>With US inflation figures higher than expectations, there is an increase in risk that the Fed's next move may be a hike.  Some HSI constituents are set to benefit.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> have significant USD net cash position and will be gainers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> have large China operations but they are net long on USD balance and this will make them beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


With US inflation figures higher than expectations, there is an increase in risk that the Fed's next move may be a hike.  Some HSI constituents are set to benefit.

Orient Overseas International (316 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) have significant USD net cash position and will be gainers.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) and Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) have large China operations but they are net long on USD balance and this will make them beneficiaries.


HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

Hong Kong

New World Development is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotels, infrastructure and services, and department stores in Greater China, particularly the Greater Bay Area. Its portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties, as well as hotel operations and various infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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New World Development (17 HK)

HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling

In this update, we explored the macro themes, including US presidential election, the Fed and China's rate cut and their impact on HK RE stocks. We...

Jacob Cheng

Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story

Upgrading and flight-to-quality in the office space has the affect of lifting occupancy in new projects; however such activity largely foreshadows...

David Blennerhassett

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling

In this update, we explored the macro themes, including US presidential election, the Fed and China's rate cut and their impact on HK RE stocks. We...

Jacob Cheng

Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story

Upgrading and flight-to-quality in the office space has the affect of lifting occupancy in new projects; however such activity largely foreshadows...

David Blennerhassett

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

​HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

​HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...