Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Newmont's March quarter delivered significant beats across all metrics.</li><li>Analysts do not see recent gold price volatility as upsetting the miner's upside.</li><li> Newmont Corp&rsquo;s March quarter beats across the board Surging by-product prices reduce costs Capital management continues through buybacks Analysts remain bullish on gold</li></ul>

Newmont's March quarter delivered significant beats across all metrics.Analysts do not see recent gold price volatility as upsetting the miner's upside. Newmont Corp&rsquo;s March quarter beats across the board Surging by-product prices reduce costs Capital management continues through buybacks Analysts remain bullish on gold

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. </li>
<li>The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. 
The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>Following our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gold-equities-a-detailed-look-at-the-capital-allocation-plans-of-our-universe-barrick-gold-b-us" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:273679" rel="noopener">Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)</a>, we follow up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>  </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  have impressive capital return programs.</li>
</ul>


At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.
Following our prior insight, Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US), we follow up on Newmont Mining (NEM US)  
We like OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, Newmont Mining (NEM US) and Barrick Mining (B US)  have impressive capital return programs.


Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Newmont (NEM US)

<ul><li>Recurring revenues underpin a substantial growth runway for Chrysos as its PhotonAssay technology challenges centuries-old gold assay methods.</li><li> Chrysos PhotonAssay gains global traction Recurring revenues underpin attractive unit economics Strong moat and potential inflection point Deployment pipeline points to faster growth</li></ul>

Recurring revenues underpin a substantial growth runway for Chrysos as its PhotonAssay technology challenges centuries-old gold assay methods. Chrysos PhotonAssay gains global traction Recurring revenues underpin attractive unit economics Strong moat and potential inflection point Deployment pipeline points to faster growth

Northern Star Resources / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Northern Star&rsquo;s relative underperformance has attracted Gold Fields, one of the world&rsquo;s largest gold producers, in what brokers characterise as a strategically appealing combination.</li><li> Northern Star shares have been de-rated in 2026 Weaker share price attracts unwelcome interest from Gold Fields Northern Star's rejection belies the potential for a global gold producing behemoth</li></ul>

Northern Star&rsquo;s relative underperformance has attracted Gold Fields, one of the world&rsquo;s largest gold producers, in what brokers characterise as a strategically appealing combination. Northern Star shares have been de-rated in 2026 Weaker share price attracts unwelcome interest from Gold Fields Northern Star's rejection belies the potential for a global gold producing behemoth

Gold Fields & Northern Star; Is It On, Is It Off?

United States

Newmont Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces and markets gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Newmont serves customers worldwide.

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Newmont (NEM AU)

March Quarter Gold Medal For Newmont

Newmont's March quarter delivered significant beats across all metrics. Analysts do not see recent gold price volatility as upsetting the miner's...

FNArena

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Newmont (NEM US)

Newmont now returns ~75% of free cash flow: a fixed $1.1bn dividend plus formula buybacks ($7.7bn done, $4.3bn left), with $3.4bn net cash. Gold...

Sameer Taneja

Chrysos Converts Disruption Into Dollars

Recurring revenues underpin a substantial growth runway for Chrysos as its PhotonAssay technology challenges centuries-old gold assay...

FNArena

Gold Fields & Northern Star; Is It On, Is It Off?

Northern Star’s relative underperformance has attracted Gold Fields, one of the world’s largest gold producers, in what brokers characterise as a...

FNArena

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