Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Newmont’s Q222 results are scheduled for release on 25 July. This report updates our forecasts for Q2–Q422 for metals prices and production costs, as well as output from Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) and Pueblo Viejo, which were announced by Barrick on 14 July.

Newmont’s Q222 results are scheduled for release on 25 July. This report updates our forecasts for Q2–Q422 for metals prices and production costs, as well as output from Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) and Pueblo Viejo, which were announced by Barrick on 14 July. 

Newmont Corporation - A high-dividend safe haven

Despite slightly lower production and higher costs in Q122, Newmont’s financial performance was within 6% of our prior expectations and exceeded them once adjusted for a one-off, exceptional pension settlement charge. As a result, despite a 6.5% lower prevailing gold price than at the time of our last note published on 21 April, we have only modestly reduced our adjusted net EPS forecast for the year by just 6.4%.

Despite slightly lower production and higher costs in Q122, Newmont’s financial performance was within 6% of our prior expectations and exceeded them once adjusted for a one-off, exceptional pension settlement charge. As a result, despite a 6.5% lower prevailing gold price than at the time of our last note published on 21 April, we have only modestly reduced our adjusted net EPS forecast for the year by just 6.4%.

Newmont Corporation - Empowering sustainability

After a fourth quarter result that was 13.7% ahead of our expectations, we expect Newmont’s financial performance to be restrained in the first two quarters of FY22, principally as a result of lingering constraints owing to the coronavirus pandemic. However, we believe that it will then pick up again strongly and, at current gold prices, we have therefore upgraded our FY22 basic adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.8% (Exhibit 6).

After a fourth quarter result that was 13.7% ahead of our expectations, we expect Newmont’s financial performance to be restrained in the first two quarters of FY22, principally as a result of lingering constraints owing to the coronavirus pandemic. However, we believe that it will then pick up again strongly and, at current gold prices, we have therefore upgraded our FY22 basic adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.8% (Exhibit 6).

Newmont Corporation - Building it piece by piece

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

<ul>
<li>Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.</li>
<li>We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.</li>
<li>Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.</li>
</ul>


Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.
We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.
Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.


Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Newmont Corporation - A high-dividend safe haven

Newmont’s Q222 results are scheduled for release on 25 July. This report updates our forecasts for Q2–Q422 for metals prices and production costs,...

Edison Investment Research

Newmont Corporation - Empowering sustainability

Despite slightly lower production and higher costs in Q122, Newmont’s financial performance was within 6% of our prior expectations and exceeded...

Edison Investment Research

Newmont Corporation - Building it piece by piece

After a fourth quarter result that was 13.7% ahead of our expectations, we expect Newmont’s financial performance to be restrained in the first two...

Edison Investment Research

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

#Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance....

Vermilion Research

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